CHICAGO — The loudest cheers at Wrigley Field this season might have come Saturday afternoon. It wasn’t for Christopher Morel’s 430-foot home run in the third. Nor was it for Patrick Wisdom three innings later when he topped Morel’s shot by 8 feet. The moment when the crowd got the loudest probably shouldn’t come as a surprise to most Chicago sports fans: It was when Caleb Williams was shown on the video board.
Expectations are high for the Chicago Bears and their young quarterback. But as the Chicago Cubs get healthy and get to full strength, more will begin to pay attention and wonder what this talented group can accomplish. After Sunday’s 5-0 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cubs sit at 21-14. That’s impressive on its own, but especially considering the number of key players who have hit the injured list for the Cubs in the first month of the season.
But Justin Steele returns Monday, and Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki might not be far behind. That’s a real boost for a team that’s winning some games despite not playing its crispest baseball. That the Cubs have been able to put together a strong record despite the injuries, a tough schedule and generally poor weather at Wrigley Field is impressive. So is not losing a home series this season.
As the Cubs look to turn it up a notch with big names returning, here are three takeaways from the past week of baseball.
Assad never made a top-100 prospect list. Heck, he barely appeared on Cubs-focused prospect lists. That’s what happens when you’re not throwing in the upper 90s or don’t have some wipeout breaking ball. Assad shines because he has a variety of pitches, tremendous poise and a standout sinker that manager Craig Counsell called a “very, very good pitch.”
Entering Sunday’s start, hitters had a .154 batting average against Assad’s sinker. According to the Statcast data, the pitch had a run value of 5, tied for the third best among all sinkers.
Javier Assad, Nasty 91mph Front Door Two Seamer. 😨 pic.twitter.com/X24MlkChkl
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2024
What makes the pitch such an impressive offering?
“It’s just got really good horizontal movement, and it makes it really hard on a righty,” Counsell said. “He commands it really well, too. He’s putting it where he wants it, and it’s a good pitch against righties and against lefties.”
Since Aug. 1, around the time Assad became a regular in the Cubs’ rotation, he has a 2.40 ERA, third best in baseball among pitchers with at least 80 innings. Cubs starters pitched 18 1/3 innings in a series win against the Brewers and didn’t allow a run. The group’s 3.13 ERA is fourth among MLB rotations.
Before Jameson Taillon’s injury in March, it appeared Assad might be headed to the bullpen. But he seems to have established himself as an anchor in what’s turned out to be a very good rotation.
Swanson entered Sunday’s contest in a slump essentially since the first week of the season. He had a 38 wRC+ in his previous 91 plate appearances with just three extra-base hits and a strikeout rate north of 30 percent.
Swanson has been seeing an uptick in breaking balls and off-speed pitches since late last season. But even during slumps, he’s still been able to hit the fastball. That hasn’t been the case of late. Since April 12, he’d hit .188 on all heaters, and for the season as a whole, he’s swinging and missing at fastballs at a would-be-career-high 29.4 percent rate (last season: 22.9 percent).
“A lot of guys have attacked him, even the second half of last year, with a lot of sliders down and away,” hitting coach Dustin Kelly said. “As a hitter, you start to expect that a little bit. So you almost know it’s coming, and you start chasing the shape a little bit. Sometimes that can get you in between.”
When Kelly says “chasing shape,” he doesn’t mean chasing the pitch. What he’s saying is a hitter starts to expect a certain pitch type. If it’s a slider down and away, their torso might lean forward a bit. If it’s a heater in, they might straighten up too much. Either way, they’re getting out of their mechanics ever so slightly. Swanson says he just wants to stay connected.
“When you’re connected, good things happen,” he said. “This year there’s been a lot of disconnected moments in my swing. We’ve been working hard, day and night almost, to figure it out. Today was a good step in the right direction.”
Sunday, Swanson whiffed just once on seven swings against heaters. The three fastballs he put in play were hit hard, the weakest at 97.2 mph, and the hardest a 109.3 mph homer that came on a two-seamer down.
Dansby Swanson smacks a solo shot to add on for the @Cubs! pic.twitter.com/iJTXSbnOqc
— MLB (@MLB) May 5, 2024
Bullpen getting stronger by the day?
Steele will return to the rotation Monday. Hayden Wesneski, who has a 0.54 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, could be shifted to the bullpen. Or perhaps Counsell will go with Ben Brown as a reliever. Either way, the relief corps improves.
“They’re getting big-league hitters out, and we certainly see that,” Counsell said. “I think we’re open however we put this staff together and however it works to get those outs every day. We’ll consider those guys, definitely, in any role.”
The Cubs will still need Jordan Wicks to get healthy and return before Wesneski and Brown can be shifted to relief roles. But if that happens, one can squint and see the makings of a solid bullpen. Mark Leiter Jr. has been impressive, and Yency Almonte has found a groove after a rough beginning to the season.
Héctor Neris has walked a fine line with an unsustainable 20.3 percent walk rate, but as a trusted veteran, Counsell will continue to go to him in big spots until he can’t. The fact he’s almost always available can’t be undervalued either. Others have shown flashes that they can help.
But along with Brown and Wesneski, what Daniel Palencia has shown in his second stint with the big-league club is opening eyes. During his first run with the team this season, Palencia worked six innings over three outings and walked seven.
Palencia has the type of stuff that suggests he could work late in games. But poor control makes it hard to earn a manager’s trust. Since his return, he looks much better, allowing just two hits in four innings (three appearances) while striking out six and walking none (he did hit a batter), including a scoreless ninth inning Sunday when he struck out two Brewers.
“He’s had a couple of very good outings,” Counsell said. “I think for Daniel, it’s on the attack and in the strike zone. It feels like the stuff obviously is good enough to get it; it’s the walks that create traffic. Guys are going to get hits, but walks create the big innings. Staying away from that is going to make him effective.”
If Palencia has found the zone, perhaps he can earn some high-leverage moments as the Cubs’ rotation gets healthy and Adbert Alzolay tries to work in some low-leverage moments to find his best self. Every bullpen needs multiple trustworthy options and depth to ensure the best arms don’t get overworked early in the year. A healthy rotation and the emergence of young arms like Brown, Wesneski and Palencia could help what’s turned out to be a weakness for this team early in the season.
(Top photo of Javier Assad: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
