When everyone has an opinion on a topic, the sports betting market usually takes a stab at posting odds for said topic. And considering everyone has an opinion on the NFL Draft, the oddsmakers have posted a ton of markets.
My process for betting on the NFL Draft is a little different than my process on, say, the NFL. I’m not modeling the draft, per se, but I am taking a data-driven approach to betting on the. draft. For instance, I’m using our consensus big boards, NFL Draft insiders including our Dane Brugler’s information, and many other sources within the industry to make informed decisions. There are a million rumors between the NFL Combine and the actual draft and sifting through what is real and what is smoke and mirrors.
Another thing to note is that a lot of the “one-way” markets have a ton of “vig” and it’s hard to find value. A one-way market is when there is just a “yes” price attached to a player like “odds to be drafted in the first round”. I tend to stay away from these as the vig is too much to overcome unless information comes to light and you can win a race to place the bet.
My last thought is that most drafts have a ton of variance and this one is no different. I am confident that not many people know what’s happening with the second overall pick and that affects the third overall pick and so on. I’ve seen a few different times this week say that the second, third, fourth, sixth, and eighth picks are turning points in the draft. In other words, nobody knows anything.
All odds from BetMGM.
Best Bets
Jayden Daniels Third QB Drafted (+475)
There will be a theme here and that has to do with what was noted above. I’m not sure anyone knows what is happening with the Commanders at the second pick outside of the Washington front office. Jayden Daniels is now the significant favorite to go second overall and I just don’t know how that’s possible with all of the uncertainty. I’ve talked to our draft team and looked at our overall consensus big board and Maye is the better prospect. Sure, the Commanders could think differently but Daniels is closer to J.J. McCarthy than Maye on a majority of boards. If this market isn’t available, I think Drake Maye Drafted Second Overall is good at any price better than +150.
Worst price to bet: +150
Dallas Turner Draft Position Under 9.5 (+130)
There has been a lot of steam with Byron Murphy II and Laiatu Latu this week and I’m going to take a good price with Turner here. I think he can go eighth or ninth here so we have two shots to get this home. Turner is rated higher than both on the consensus big board and he’s an edge rusher which gives him a positional edge over Murphy II and has a better track record when it comes to health versus Latu.
Worst price to bet: Under 9.5 (+120)
J.J. McCarthy Draft Position Over 5.5 (+118)
Quarterback inflation is a thing so someone could fall in love with McCarthy and select him in the Top-5 or trade into to lose this bet. But I just think a guy who is graded more as a late first or second-round prospect is more likely to fall out of the Top-5 than be selected in it.
Total Quarterbacks selected in Round 1 Under 4.5 (+280)
Sticking with the quarterbacks here. I don’t think Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. is likely to go in the first round. Nix is favored to go in the second round so the worry here seems to be Penix Jr.. My issue with him is that he has some injury history and will be 24 this season. An older quarterback prospect with injury concerns is something that will scare teams off from using a first-round pick on — or at least it should. At this price, it’s a no-brainer for me to take a stab that the Washington signal-caller falls to the second round.
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Other Best Bets
Blake Corum First Running Back Drafted +500 (risk 0.5 units)
Worst price to bet: +400
Jaylen Wright First Running Back Drafted +1600 (risk 0.1 units)
Worst price to bet: +1500
Junior Colson First Linebacker Drafted +150
Worst price to bet: -150
Jaden Hicks First Safety Drafted +380
Worst price to bet: +200
Theo Johnson Second Tight End Drafted +300 (risk 0.25 units)
Worst price to bet: +300
(Photo of Dallas Turner: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
