RENTON, Wash. — The Seattle Seahawks offense has done its part to come out on top during the team’s three-game win streak, but the players and coaches know they’ve left some meat on the bone. Maintaining first place in the NFC West requires better execution in several areas.
One of those areas is short-yardage situations. This was a point of emphasis entering Week 10’s bye because of struggles in back-to-back home losses to the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, and it remains a focus for the Seahawks (7-5) ahead of their high-stakes rematch Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals (6-6).
According to The Athletic’s projection model, a win increases Seattle’s odds of making the playoffs and winning the division to 66 percent and 63 percent, respectively. Arizona’s odds in that scenario drop to 12 and 10 percent. A loss drops the Seahawks’ playoff and division chances to 22 and 17 percent, while Arizona’s odds would rise to 54 and 52 percent.
Coach Mike Macdonald’s defense has performed like one of the league’s best since the team’s bye. From weeks 11 through 13, the Seahawks rank No. 1 in EPA per play on defense and second in opponent points per drive (all stats provided by TruMedia unless stated otherwise). Each of the last two NFC Defensive Player of the Week awards have gone to players on Macdonald’s unit: safety Coby Bryant in Week 12 and defensive Leonard Williams in Week 13.
Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, has been below average by both EPA per play and points per drive and hasn’t scored over 20 points since Week 7 in Atlanta. One way to improve across the board would be to sustain drives and get the ball in the end zone by way of better execution on short-yardage snaps.
“I think we’ve actually made strides out in the field in our short-yardage package,” Macdonald said. “But it’s kind of rearing its head down in the low red zone. That’s kind of part of that area we’re trying to attack right now.”
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The Seahawks are among the worst teams in the league by rush success rate and first downs per attempt when needing 1 yard on third or fourth down. It’s a very specific facet of the game in which the Seahawks are deficient, but the last few outings illustrate the importance of converting in those critical moments.
Against the Bills in Week 8, Seattle reached the 2-yard line with a chance to tie the game at 7 in the second quarter. Kenneth Walker III lost a yard on first down partly because defensive tackle Ed Oliver beat rookie right tackle Michael Jerrell across his face. Then, center Connor Williams snapped the ball over Geno Smith’s head on second down, resulting in a loss of 19 yards. On their next possession, the Seahawks faced third-and-goal from the 1 with a chance to take a 10-7 lead. Walker gained nothing on a third-down run — defensive end Greg Rousseau was basically unblocked — and then Williams stepped on Smith’s foot on fourth down, ending in a 6-yard loss.
In overtime against the Rams the next week, Seattle twice failed to get 1 yard on a pair of Walker runs from the 16-yard line and turned the ball over on downs. The blocking was insufficient on both runs, and on the first attempt, Walker hesitated in the backfield.
Seattle made strides in Week 11 against the 49ers and converted on third-and-1 (a Zach Charbonnet run), second-and-1 (Walker touchdown run) and fourth-and-1 (Walker run). But the offense needed an assist from the defense to set up the game-winning drive after failing on a third-and-1 QB sneak and a Charbonnet run on fourth-and-1 (two unblocked defenders blew the latter play up). Even in victory, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said he was disappointed with how those two failed runs went.
Seattle’s Week 13 win over the New York Jets included a third-quarter drive that ended with a 15-yard sack on fourth-and-goal from the 1. On that drive, Walker gained just 1 yard on second-and-goal from the 4. Then, after a defensive penalty gave Seattle a fresh set of downs, Walker was stuffed on first-and-goal from the 1. A Charbonnet run for no gain on third-and-goal was negated by an offside penalty, then Smith threw an incomplete pass and took a sack over the next two snaps.
“I think that’s something we definitely need to get better at,” Smith said of their short-yardage struggles. “Me personally, I know I can be better in those situations for our guys.”
Here’s Zach’s touchdown to take the lead. Success, again. pic.twitter.com/JlM0ukwZrH
— Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 5, 2024
When asked about the ways in which he could be better, Smith pointed to his off-target throw to tight end Noah Fant on second-and-goal that could have been a 1-yard touchdown. Connect with Fant there, Smith said, “and we’re not talking about this right now.”
“Overall, if I can improve on something, I’m going to try and do that,” said Smith, who threw a pair of goal-line interceptions in Week 9. “I think there’s a lot of improvement to be had in that area, in that situation. I think we’ve all got to be better.”
Smith’s teammates took ownership, as well. Walker said the run game needs to be more consistent. “Myself included,” he said. Second-year center Olu Oluwatimi blamed himself and pointed specifically to his reps against All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams in the win over New York.
“Quinnen gave me a tough time on the goal line, so I’ve got to own that,” said Oluwatimi, who was promoted to the starting lineup in Week 11 following Connor Williams’ sudden retirement. “I thought the rest of the line did what they needed to do. I need to be better on the goal line, for real.”
Seattle’s go-ahead score was a successful short-yardage play with Charbonnet picking up 8 yards on third-and-1. That carry was Charbonnet’s second first down carry of the game with 1 yard to gain and it may have provided a blueprint for success. Seattle had both running backs on the field, with Walker doing a jet motion at the time Smith snapped the ball and handed it to Charbonnet, who lined up in the backfield. The action created a crease for Charbonnet to reach the second level, shed a tackler and find the end zone. Grubb used the same formation earlier in the game on third-and-1 and Charbonnet picked up 7 yards.
Seattle obviously can’t use the same formation every time it wants to pick up 1 yard, but Grubb may be on to something with the idea of giving the defense some eye candy to help create lanes for Charbonnet and Walker when they’re on the field together. The Seahawks used their two-back package in previous games to varying degrees of success, but Week 13 appeared to be the first time they toyed with adding motion to it. It’s a minor adjustment, but in situations where everything happens quickly, those tiny details can sometimes make all the difference, as was the case Sunday.
“We’ve just got to be keyed into the little details, be detailed in those crucial situations,” left guard Laken Tomlinson said. “We’ve shown that when we can execute, we can be really dangerous in the red zone.”
Arizona’s defense ranks in the top 10 in the red zone (seventh) and on the goal line (10th). In the first meeting, Smith’s 4-yard pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the second quarter was the only offensive touchdown of the game by either team. The next time Seattle reached the red zone, Smith threw an interception on the first play of the fourth quarter. In anticipation of another tight ballgame Sunday, Seattle knows it can’t afford empty trips when it gets near the end zone, and being better in short-yardage situations is one way to ensure that doesn’t happen.
“We just haven’t had the consistent success in those moments,” Grubb said. “The thing you’ve got to do is continue to search and try to find better answers, and for us, that’s what we committed to do.”
(Photo of Geno Smith handing off to Kenneth Walker III: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
