Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is more impactful for Oilers as a winger

As a young player, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was a prime example of what happens to supremely talented teenagers who are drafted by teams with enormous needs.

Thrust into the No. 1 centre role before he could shave, the Edmonton Oilers sent him over the boards to face bigger, more experienced centres like Anze Kopitar of the Los Angeles Kings.

The results were predictable.

When Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl came along mid-decade, the Nuge remained in the middle but was deployed as a second- or third-line pivot.

In recent years, RNH has played more on the wing, and is more effective playing there.

He plays on the top two lines, provides a defensive conscience and remains an elite passer on a line with at least two of them.

It’s a great situation for player and team.

There are questions surrounding the deployment of Nugent-Hopkins as a winger on a skill line.

Is the success a product of playing more with McDavid and Draisaitl? Why didn’t the Oilers do this sooner? If the team runs with the Nuge at centre, does it hurt the team?

Here’s a look.

With and without you

Over the last two seasons, Nugent-Hopkins has played the wing often with one of McDavid or Draisaitl, but rarely both men. Through two full seasons, the trio spent just 20 minutes together and didn’t score a goal or surrender one. The line has an expected goal share of 87 percent, if you see them together in the postseason there’s a chance good things will happen.

Placing Nuge on either of the top two lines over the last two seasons usually means good things will happen.

When RNH centres his own line, his scoring is reduced, but the team’s outscoring remains strong.

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick, over the last two seasons

In the middle to later part of the decade, the Oilers didn’t have the kind of depth the roster boasts today. When he was alone at centre, and the top two lines were populated by the team’s four best wingers, it was at times slim pickings by the time the coaching staff populated Nuge’s line.

Over the last two seasons, Nugent-Hopkins has done well with several sets of linemates while playing at centre.

In 2022-23, he centred a line with veteran Mattias Janmark and young winger Klim Kostin that enjoyed great success. In 141 minutes at five-on-five, the trio scored 9-6 goals despite an expected goal share of 44 percent.

In 2023-24, the most successful solo line was Nuge with Warren Foegele and multiple third members of the group. Isolating RNH and Foegele away from both McDavid and Draisaitl, the duo played 140 minutes together outscored 8-7 with a 54 percent expected-goal share.

It’s possible we see that duo run at times during the playoffs this spring.

Most successful units

This season, the most successful line has him playing on the wing with McDavid at centre and Zach Hyman on the other side. That trio has outscored opponents 34-20 in 2023-24 and was 16-10 one year ago.

Nugent-Hopkins is the complementary offensive piece on the line but plays an important role. His attention to detail and cheating for defence allows the other two forwards room to wheel. Nuge is an insurance policy against disaster and one of the most valuable of his type in the game.

Not every player can flourish with elite talent, RNH has been doing it since he arrived in the NHL to play with Taylor Hall.

The key for Nugent-Hopkins comes from his increase in scoring, and his aiding McDavid and Draisaitl in their own outscoring.

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick, over the last two seasons

When playing with McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins scores more, McDavid scores more and both men outscore at a higher rate over the past two seasons.

The margins are closer when RNH plays with Draisaitl, but the outscoring remains.

This kind of utility gives Nugent-Hopkins exceptional value. He can play with the elite centres or check down and be an effective two-way pivot on his own line.

What Nuge does well

After losing battles with Kopitar and other big wingers early on, Nugent-Hopkins found himself being challenged in new areas by the midway point of the 2010s. He could often be found on the second line with lesser wingers, while McDavid and Draisaitl romped on the top line.

It only works if both lines are outscoring versus elites, and that wasn’t happening through the Todd McLellan and Dave Tippett eras in Edmonton.

According to Puck IQ, as late as 2019-20 Nugent-Hopkins had just a 44 percent Dangerous Fenwick percentage versus elite competition.

In 2023-24, without McDavid, RNH delivered a 55 percent Dangerous Fenwick (similar to smart Corsi, or expected goals) and 7-6 goals versus elites.

Together, the two men hammered elite competition at 66 percent Dangerous Fenwick and won the goal share 10-5.

It’s been a long journey to these numbers.

Bottom line

Let’s answer those questions.

Is the success a product of playing more with McDavid and Draisaitl?

There’s no doubt Nugent-Hopkins benefits offensively from playing with the two men. His scoring and outscoring numbers spike handsomely.

The appeal goes both ways and that’s important. Both McDavid and Draisaitl see improvement in the vital five-on-five numbers with Nugent-Hopkins, driving one of the best lines in recent NHL history to even greater heights.

Why didn’t the Oilers do this sooner?

It wasn’t available until the organization found a way to add enough quality wingers to make three lines work.

There were times when McDavid was running with lesser wingers on the top line, meaning the trickle-down to Nugent-Hopkins on the second or third line was even more dire.

If the team runs with the Nuge at centre, does it hurt the team?

Edmonton can run Nugent-Hopkins with McDavid, Draisaitl or solo third line and be confident in outscoring success.

As an example, news on Sunday that Evander Kane might not be available for Game 1 would have been devastating to the Oilers in the past.

With Nugent-Hopkins available to play centre or wing, with the improved depth offered by names like Hyman, Kane, Adam Henrique and Corey Perry, coach Kris Knoblauch has enough room to find three lines that work in the heart of the game.

Nugent-Hopkins is easy to overlook. Despite being a No. 1 overall selection, he has played in the shadow of men like Hall and McDavid his entire career.

Shadow is a good word to describe the Nuge. He can shadow the opponent’s best players while helping his line outscore in the heart of the game.

The Oilers organization is lucky to have a player of his quality willing to play a vital support role.

If this franchise wins the Stanley Cup this spring, rest assured RNH will have contributed in a major way.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / USA Today)