Welcome to the Week 9 edition of overreactions and underreactions, both sides equally needed for this sport we love. We’ve reached a critical point in the season: the final week before the first College Football Playoff rankings. Surely there won’t be any overreactions when the committee releases those rankings on Nov. 5, right? (On election night? Really?)
This season has more than delivered on expectations, and the biggest month is here. To set the stage, let’s scan the national landscape.
There are three undefeated teams in the Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon and Penn State. The wild part is none of them play each other, meaning there’s a possibility that there will be three 12-0 Big Ten teams at the end of the regular season with just two spots for the conference title game. And then there’s Ohio State hanging out with one loss.
The ACC has four undefeated teams in conference play with one or zero overall losses: Clemson, Miami, Pitt and SMU. There are only two games of overlap between the four teams: Pitt plays Clemson and SMU, meaning there’s a possibility for another multi-team jam assuming everyone keeps winning.
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Predictably, the SEC has the most teams in play for the 12-team Playoff: Five teams could win out and finish 7-1 in conference play: Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Then there are two-loss teams like Alabama and Ole Miss that are in the mix if each wins out.
Then there’s the Big 12 with undefeated BYU and Iowa State and a one-loss Kansas State, all within the AP Top 25, and don’t rule out two-loss Colorado in the Big 12 race (more on that later). Oh, and the Group of 5 is guaranteed to get one Playoff spot. That’s almost 20 teams with a legitimate chance to get in, so the next month and change will be awesome.
The regular season is devalued: overreaction. There won’t be enough deserving teams: overreaction. The lack of divisions will cause chaos and tiebreaker headaches: spot-on reaction.
Here are a few more things we’re overreacting to and underreacting to as November looms:
Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson has 1,144 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns this season. (Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)
We are underreacting to … Kaleb Johnson.
Ashton Jeanty is leading the way for running back hype this season and rightfully so, but another running back on a historic run who is not getting as much attention: Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson. The Hawkeyes are 5-3 and out of Playoff contention so Johnson isn’t a top Heisman Trophy candidate. But here’s a case for him anyway:
Through eight games, Johnson has more rushing yards (1,144), more touchdowns (16) and a higher yards-per-carry average (7.8) than the past two running backs to win the award: Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram. The much-maligned Iowa offense is functional, averaging 29.4 points per game (nearly doubling last year’s 15.4 total), and Johnson is why: He has accounted for 47 percent of Iowa’s scrimmage yards, by far the most of any single player in the country. Jeanty is second at 41 percent. It won’t be enough for the Heisman, but an All-America nod and a Doak Walker Award finalist selection are more than warranted.
We overreacted and properly reacted to … a few coaching hot seats.
Preseason hot seat talk is an annual tradition, and in many years, early season losses essentially seal coaches’ fates before the season truly unfolds. There were examples this season, so let’s check in on where a few of those hot seats stand a few months later (with three coaches fired already: at Rice, East Carolina and Southern Miss):
Trent Dilfer, UAB — proper reaction: It’s only Year 2 for Dilfer, but it has gone from bad to worse at UAB: a 4-8 debut in 2023, which was UAB’s worst season since 2013, and a current six-game losing streak, which has the Blazers at a woeful 1-6. In addition to a lack of on-field success, there have been multiple instances when he has alienated the fans and community. Two weeks ago, he referred to his tenure as a rebuild but inherited a program that had seven straight winning seasons. This has been a clear regression and just a bad fit for what was supposed to be a splash hire.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas — overreaction: Pittman had one of the hottest seats in the country to start the year, and a collapse in Week 2 at Oklahoma State only intensified it. But as we enter November, Pittman has turned things around. The Razorbacks are 5-3 overall, one win away from bowl eligibility and 3-2 in conference play, including a win over top-10 Tennessee. The Razorbacks are one win away from matching Pittman’s high in SEC wins in a season (2021). That’s not to say that everything’s resolved, but it feels like he has bought a little more time to get Arkansas back to the nine-win program from a few years ago.
Billy Napier, Florida — proper reaction: The Gators are still playing hard under Napier, which is undeniable. And they’ve racked up three wins in four games to raise their overall record to 4-3. But we need to see more before bringing Napier back becomes a legitimate conversation. Florida’s four wins came against three sub-.500 teams and FCS Samford. Florida doesn’t have a win over a team above .500 in Napier’s past 16 games and just two in his tenure: South Carolina in 2022 and Tennessee in 2023 (the Gators did beat Utah in the 2023 opener, and the Utes finished that season 10-4). Its 2025 recruiting class is just 50th nationally, according to 247Sports. The effort is commendable, but it feels like Napier needs a real, legitimate win down the stretch (like Arkansas got over Tennessee). Luckily, there are plenty of opportunities left.
Sonny Dykes, TCU — overreaction: It has been a wild ride for Dykes from a national championship appearance in 2022 to a disastrous 5-7 season a year ago. The pressure was on entering Year 3, and his seat hasn’t fully cooled off, but TCU is trending in the right direction. The Horned Frogs are 5-3 with back-to-back (albeit narrow) wins in the past few weeks. There’s only one team with a winning record left on its schedule: Cincinnati to end the season. An eight- or nine-win regular season is very much in play. Off the field, TCU has the highest-rated recruiting class in the Big 12 (No. 23 nationally), signifying that prospects are buying into the message. Dykes has to keep winning in November, but the program is primed for a bounce-back year.
We are still underreacting to … Colorado.
An earlier edition of overreactions/underreactions stated that Colorado’s resurgence since its loss to Nebraska wasn’t getting enough attention. Now we’re into November, and the Buffaloes are 6-2, ranked and firmly in the mix for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance. Considering that the preseason over/under win total was 5.5, passing that number before Nov. 1 is strong.
More than just the wins, how Colorado is winning games is impressive. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter carried a subpar roster last year. Those two are still elite, but this is a more complete team, particularly on defense. The Buffs’ defensive line leads the Big 12 in sacks and has allowed only 53 second-half points all season. All of a sudden, Deion Sanders’ record in two seasons is 10-10, and he has the Buffs in position for their first non-pandemic winning season since 2016.
If you are rolling your eyes and claiming that Colorado “hasn’t played anyone,” I’ll leave you with this. Here’s Colorado’s combined opponent record compared to the other top three teams in the Big 12 standings, including two that likely will appear in the first Playoff rankings:
Colorado: 40-25
Kansas State: 37-27
BYU: 30-34
Iowa State: 29-27
Interesting, right? Let’s keep that same energy across the board.
(Top photo of Deion Sanders: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
