NHL fans look forward to each trade deadline as a chance to add talent to their favourite team. If that club is in a championship window, the expectation is at least one deadline addition and an immediate improvement in that area of the roster.
If things work out well, there’s a chance the team will sign the incoming player, who is often on an expiring contract.
Trent Frederic has yet to make an impact on the Edmonton Oilers due to injury. He will soon start ramping up for his first NHL action with his new team. Anticipation is high and there’s a good chance his playing style will make him a fan favourite in short order.
Frederic is a rugged player who plays with an edge. He’s done it from his first NHL game to his last for the Boston Bruins before his trade to Edmonton.
The backstory
Frederic was a mild surprise as a first-round pick for Boston in 2016. The first 30-plus picks are usually reserved for top offensive talents, and Frederic projected as a complementary scorer in his draft season.
The Bruins drafted him because the style fit the team’s aggressive attitude. Frederic is a big man (6-foot-3, 221 pounds) and he skates well (NHL Edge has him about average, with some nice secondary numbers) for a player his size.
He’s difficult to play against, plays to the whistle and then some, and isn’t hesitant to play in tough areas of the ice. As much as he fit Boston’s style in 2016, Frederic’s special brand of hitting (he pushes through the check) should have the same impact in Edmonton.
Frederic is as his scouting report on draft day suggested: reliant offensively on a linemate who can drive possession and create plays while offering physical play that often upsets opponents.
Without the puck
Defensively, he’s not ideally suited to playing against elite competition. Using Puck IQ’s unique binning (quality of competition splits) we get a view of how much coaches trusted Frederic in Boston.
| Year | Elites | Mid | Low |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
23.1 |
33.2 |
43.7 |
|
2023-24 |
27.9 |
39.8 |
32.3 |
|
2024-25 |
27.2 |
36.3 |
36.5 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Puck IQ
This is a player who spent more than 70 percent of his five-on-five NHL time against mid- or low-level competition. The Bruins have been a veteran club and a strong contender during Frederic’s Boston career (save for this season), so superior options were available.
When he did play versus elites, the results were not strong enough for him to push up the depth chart (as shown above).
If we mine Puck IQ’s assessment of Frederic with Charlie Coyle (his most common linemate) over the last four seasons, we get a more accurate view of the player.
DFF percentage is dangerous Fenwick, a measure similar to expected goals. It gives us a clearer view of a line’s success when playing against the league’s best opponents.
Frederic-Coyle posted a strong DFF percentage in 2021-22 (60 percent in 132 minutes, 5-2 goals) in a season the Bruins delivered success (51 wins). The following year, Boston won 65 games, and Frederic-Coyle faced elites 163 minutes, posting a below average Dangerous Fenwick (47 percent) but a stunning 11-2 goal share.
That kind of contrary number set can often be credited to goaltending and luck.
By 2023-24, the club no longer enjoyed the incredible talents of Patrice Bergeron but won 47 games anyway. Frederic was paired most often with Morgan Geekie (101 minutes) with a galling DFF percentage (35 percent) that resulted in a below par goal (8-10) differential.
This season, before his injury and the trade to Edmonton, Frederic was back with Coyle as his most common linemate at five-on-five. The line saw action versus elites for 82 minutes, went 2-4 goals and was dominated by the opposition’s best (39 percent Dangerous Fenwick).
The Bruins today are not the Bruins of 2022-23.
Posting offence
A change of scenery can help complementary forwards, and that could be the case with Frederic. Pat Maroon flourished on a line with Connor McDavid not long after struggling with linemates Rickard Rakell and Corey Perry as a member of the Anaheim Ducks.
The Oilers might use Frederic at centre, as the fourth-line pivot chores are being done by natural wingers. A good case can be made for Frederic being at his best on the wing, but if he can handle centre there’s a chance his trio will pass the Adam Henrique (No. 3) line during some games.
As a scorer, Frederic’s output depends quite a lot on his linemates but he’s significantly more than a fringe scorer. Here’s a quick view of the last three seasons of five-on-five scoring with various linemates.
| Linemate | Minutes | Goals/Pts-60 |
|---|---|---|
|
Charlie Coyle |
1177 |
1.07/1.99 |
|
Morgan Geekie |
470 |
.77/2.04 |
|
James van Riemsdyk |
361 |
1/2 |
|
Justin Brazeau |
259 |
.69/1.39 |
|
Matt Poitras |
252 |
1.18/1.67 |
|
Danton Heinen |
228 |
.79/2.36 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
These numbers show Frederic as a fine complementary scorer at five-on-five. They imply he might have more offence than some of the wingers currently being deployed on Edmonton’s top two lines.
Put another way, if Frederic can deliver 2 points per 60 playing on a line with Coyle, Geekie or Danton Heinen, there’s a good chance he can post more offence than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has managed on the McDavid line this season. The same applies for Vasily Podkolzin on the Leon Draisaitl No. 2 line.
What will fans see?
Frederic is a physical winger with skill. He’s not a strong playmaker and does not own a massive shot (although NHL Edge tells us he can crank the puck when hitting it flush) that can beat goalies clean from range. This season, he averaged 5.8 shots per 60 at five-on-five, with a 10.8 shooting percentage. That’s a low shot total but a productive scoring rate.
He averaged 12.8 hits per 60 at five-on-five; that total would rank No. 1 among Edmonton’s regular forwards this season.
Fans will appreciate Frederic’s ability to use hitting effectively. He takes the opponent out of the play for an entire sequence while also delivering a message. He’s no shy violet and can handle himself in a battle.
A guess would have his best position as left wing on Draisaitl’s line. The two big men could turn over pucks, punish defencemen and generally create chaos deep in the opposition zone.
Frederic isn’t an offensive winger, but rather a throwback to the days when big men patrolled their wing, dished out punishment (and absorbed it too) while scoring enough to stay in the lineup.
For an Oilers team with several wingers who can’t find the range offensively, Frederic might be a solution in more than one area.
(Photo: Bob DeChiara / Imagn Images)
