On the day the Edmonton Oilers acquired defenceman Ty Emberson from the San Jose Sharks, fans of the team found themselves in a most unusual situation.
Oilers fans may well be the most devoted in hockey, with a wealth of knowledge about their favourite team and players across the league.
Emberson represents a challenge. He has just 30 NHL games on his resume, and the Sharks do not represent must-watch television at this time.
So, a large portion of Oilers fans have little knowledge of Emberson. Is he big? Small? Good skater? Can he play?
Consider this a true “what to expect” sketch of Emberson.
In the beginning
I always like to go back to draft day scouting reports to begin the process of building a profile on a player.
Corey Pronman at The Athletic wrote that Emberson is “a decent sized defender who skates reasonably well. He’s able to close gaps on guys and make stops due to his feet, physicality and intelligence. He can skate pucks out of trouble and has the vision to make a few nice plays when he gets space. The issue with him is a lack of creativity and offensive skill. His game can be very basic at times, and he won’t break a shift open.”
Scott Wheeler at The Athletic opined that “Ty Emberson is freakishly athletic and was never given a real shot to play offensive minutes with the national program but also went a bit high (in the draft).”
Red Line Report suggested he was a “fantastic four-way skater. Brain doesn’t move as fast as (his) feet” and “a decidedly vanilla (in a good way) defender who lacks dynamic pop and offensive upside but is smart and effective.”
The Arizona Coyotes drafted a fast, intelligent and effective defenceman who lacked top-end creativity with the puck. He was physical, had size (he is listed at 6-foot-2 and 193 pounds on the Oilers site) and projected as a solid even strength and penalty killing option in the future.
College
After playing for the vaunted U.S. National Team program in the USHL in his draft season, Emberson landed with the Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten) and played more than the average freshman with his draft pedigree (third round).
Corey Pronman at The Athletic ranked him No. 15 on the Coyotes prospect list in August 2019, saying “Emberson had a good year. He didn’t put up big offensive numbers, but he still played a healthy amount of effective minutes for Wisconsin. Emberson is a mobile, physical defenseman. I’ve never seen much skill in his game, but he flashed more offensive IQ this season to make me think he could be a decent pro.”
In 2020, Wheeler gave an overview of Emberson’s sophomore season and further developed the idea of the player as a shutdown blue. “He’s a bit of a standalone prospect in today’s game in that he has progressed as far as he has on the grounds of his defensive play, and the safety and simplicity of his game, as well as his handedness. He plays with a step-up physical edge and he skates well, but he lacks the ability to make plays.”
Two years into his college career, the profile of Emberson suggests a third-pairing defender with limited offence. It’s a narrow role for any prospect, partly because this is not a feature role. Additionally, there are always a large number of players who can fill this role for an NHL team.
Pro hockey
Emberson played for the Tucson Roadrunners in 2021-22 and the Hartford Wolf Pack the following season. Emberson had been dealt to the New York Rangers in the summer of 2022, as the Coyotes took on Patrik Nemeth’s contract in exchange for draft picks.
Nothing in his profile suggested Emberson would deliver as an NHL rookie during his time in the minor leagues.
It points out one of the issues with the AHL not publishing time-on-ice totals. Emberson improved markedly season over season in the AHL (a fantastic league) via plus-minus.
He was minus-25 with Tucson as an AHL rookie and then plus-17 with the Wolf Pack the following year. We know that’s good, but we can’t place those numbers in true context, due to lack of ice-time totals.
We do know that during 2021-22, when Emberson was minus-25, his team was minus-49 without him. It was a poor team and Emberson was not part of the solution as a rookie pro.
In 2022-23, Hartford was plus-6 when Emberson was off the ice and plus-17 when he was on the ice during minutes that did not involve the penalty kill or the power play.
These are inexact totals but do suggest that Emberson began to thrive — under now-Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch — during his time in Connecticut.
NHL rookie
Emberson is not a famous prospect; third-round selections have to earn every headline.
His performance with the Sharks in 2023-24 was noteworthy.
The verbal came from local and national outlets. At The Athletic, Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentille noted his contribution in a year-end piece on teams needing defensive upgrades. The article stated “credit to Ty Emberson, a waiver claim (via the Rangers) who wound up looking like a legit NHL defenseman before a season-ending injury in March.”
Harman Dayal also mentioned Emberson as a value contract in June.
The numbers are strong.
Emberson played just 30 games due to injury, but in those minutes he showed great potential in the areas highlighted in the draft day scouting reports.
Speed, closing gaps, suppressing offence.
Puck IQ is a pure math site with zero emotion, but the math adores Emberson’s work in 2023-24.
| Statistic | Total | Team Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
Mins v elites |
5:31 |
No. 4 |
|
DFF Pct |
46.8 |
No. 1 |
|
DFF%Rel Corsi |
10.6 |
No. 1 |
|
Goal Pct |
53.8 |
No. 1 |
All numbers five-on-five
It’s important to note this is a small sample, but there is quality in these numbers.
Emberson wasn’t a feature player against elites but even as a rookie, he built enough minutes to land in the top-four defence against the other team’s best players.
His goal share in those minutes (7-6) was also tops among Sharks defenders.
Emberson played 7:26 per game versus mid-level opposition and just over four minutes against elites.
That ratio (more against elites than the soft parade) does not fit the model NHL coaches use when it comes to rookies.
Emberson moved the needle.
What do the Oilers have in Emberson?
Emberson is an outlier in the modern game. Although he has foot speed and can close gaps quickly, the puck-moving ability wasn’t a factor until his season with Knoblauch in Hartford. Red Line compared him to Anton Stralman.
Using even-strength points per game to estimate offence in the AHL, we get 0.12 from his rookie season in Tucson; 0.35 in his season with Knoblauch in Hartford; 0.3 as an NHL rookie. Those totals suggest growth.
Emberson’s points per 60 as an NHL rookie during the 2023-24 season (1.08) would have ranked No. 3 (behind Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard) on the Oilers last season.
Is Emberson a puck mover? The scouting reports suggested no, and many of his assists are not primary helpers.
Still, he won’t be required to be the strong passer on his pairing (likely Brett Kulak) and if he has improved his decision making with the puck that’s a bonus.
An accurate statement about Emberson at this time: Speed, intelligence, great in coverage. Offence? Don’t expect Bouchard, but he might be able to hold his own as an outlet passer.
Knoblauch may be a key to that side of his game.
For Oilers fans who haven’t seen Emberson, math delivers a solid defensive report card with the most unsatisfactory decision on the skill set.
It’s too soon to know.
(Photo: Stan Szeto / USA Today)
