What I'm seeing as the Winnipeg Jets lose 7 of their last 10 games

By / / Sports / 11 minutes of reading


The Winnipeg Jets have lost four games in a row and seven out of their last 10, losing their grip on first place in the NHL.

It would be awfully Winnipeg of the Jets to dominate the standings until actually getting some recognition for it. We’ve seen past editions of the team start brilliantly in recent seasons — so much so that we referred to second-half slumps as the most important obstacle for this edition to overcome.

I still believe the Jets are a good team, despite the extent of their recent struggles. But why are they struggling quite this badly after a record-setting start? What’s actually happening on the ice to drive such trouble — and what can Winnipeg do about it?

First, a clue from Scott Arniel’s response to my question about Winnipeg’s coverage on the two four-on-four goals it gave up against St. Louis on Tuesday.

“First one, we have a guy fall down and we’ve got two guys on the wrong side of the puck. The next one, we duplicate and had another guy come right down the middle,” Arniel said. “Those are the things, for me — and this is the last time I’ll say this on the schedule and the games that we’re playing — there’s some mental things that are happening and you go ‘Wow, where did that come from?”

Let’s talk about it, then.

Here’s what I’m seeing as the Jets experience their first major struggles of the 2024-25 season.

Scheifele is hurting and so is the top line

We’re not used to seeing Mark Scheifele struggle like this. He has one goal, two assists and 11 shots in seven games since his hat trick against Florida last month. He’s been outscored 5-2 at five-on-five in that time and was a step behind Jordan Kyrou on St. Louis’ first four-on-four goal on Tuesday.

Scheifele’s upper-body injury has been speculated upon at length; Gabriel Vilardi took faceoffs for him on the road trip despite some ensuing defensive complications. Vilardi has won 56.6 percent of his faceoffs but didn’t feel confident about Winnipeg’s defending on the faceoffs he lost.

“If I lost the faceoff, (there were) different responsibilities for me and Mark. You saw a lot of times, I kind of got caught low just because the timing of switches just wasn’t there,” Vilardi said on Tuesday. “I think it was definitely an adjustment for our line.”

Winnipeg has given up eight rush goals in four straight losses, including the one Kyrou beat Scheifele for on Tuesday. This isn’t a problem unique to the Jets’ top line but Scheifele’s injury has exacerbated things. Winnipeg’s centers are tasked with playing above (on the safe side of) opposing centres. Vilardi plays a power game on the boards, particularly excelling below the goal line, but lacks Scheifele’s footspeed to get back into plays. That’s part of the reason neither Arniel nor Rick Bowness before him committed to Vilardi (or Cole Perfetti) at centre: The Jets want their middlemen to play with pace, excelling in transition on offence and defence alike.

Some of the top line’s struggles are about a lack of offence: Scheifele and Vilardi have one goal each through the Jets’ losing streak, while Kyle Connor has none. At the end of Winnipeg’s game against Dallas on Sunday, Scheifele found Connor for a high slot chance that he fanned on. Later, Scheifele got a one-time pass at the bottom of the circle that he put wide.

Scheifele said on Tuesday that Winnipeg’s offensive struggles are about a lack of execution. Arniel put it a different way.

“We were trying to play cute hockey,” Arniel said of Winnipeg’s struggles against St. Louis. “We were trying to make highlight-reel plays.”

Let’s note Scheifele’s line with Connor and Vilardi has outscored opponents 15-14 at five-on-five over the full course of this season. Before Scheifele’s injury, they looked to have turned a corner in controlling the game and still have a 52 percent expected goals percentage at five-on-five. There are reasons for optimism but they need to find their game in all three zones — and on the power play, too.

Outlook: It depends on the speed of Scheifele’s turn toward good health. Scheifele was back taking faceoffs on Tuesday in Winnipeg, implying a turn back toward good health, although he managed to win just six of his 15 attempts. The line depends on him playing down low, freeing Vilardi to spend more time on the attack.

Samberg’s importance cannot be overstated

When Dylan Samberg was a high school sophomore, he hurt his ankle playing hockey.

When his dad, Mike, picked him up to take him home, Samberg was given the option to get it checked out by a doctor.

“Dad, It’s hunting season,” said the younger Samberg. He then remained stubborn about it overnight and into the next day when he couldn’t fit his foot into his winter boot. Undeterred, he took the felt liner out of his boot and got his dad to tape a plastic bag around it to keep his foot from getting soaked. There’s a whole story to it — a father and son having a great weekend together before noticing the pain isn’t going away, going for an X-ray and realizing Samberg’s foot was broken the whole time.

It shouldn’t be a surprise then that Samberg got right back up and tried to block another shot after Steven Stamkos’ slap shot broke his foot last week. His pain tolerance is exceptional — so much so that he’s already been spotted walking around Canada Life Centre without his walking boot. Arniel is estimating four weeks for Samberg’s recovery and it seems reasonable that Samberg will play the moment he gets medical clearance.

In the meantime, his absence has caused a ripple effect throughout the Jets’ defence corps. His minutes are now being taken by offseason depth signing Haydn Fleury while the Jets rotate Logan Stanley, Colin Miller and Ville Heinola through their third pair. Fleury has worked hard, even saving a goal against the Blues on Tuesday (while blaming himself for being out of position first) but he’s not as well suited to the rigours of top-four competition as Samberg.

He gets his wires crossed as Adam Lowry releases Blues forward Dylan Holloway on this rush.

Outlook: I don’t think this one is getting better quickly — but Samberg might. I think Winnipeg could get away with sheltering a Stanley-Heinola third pairing if the top two pairs were healthy and dominating. That’s not the case; Samberg and Neal Pionk kept a clean defensive zone, enjoying almost 60 percent of shots at five-on-five, while Winnipeg gets closer to 40 percent of the shots with Fleury and Pionk on the ice.

On Stanley and Heinola

Stanley has taken seven minor penalties this season, including three during Sunday’s loss to Dallas — one of which after he was burned by a particularly slow pivot in his attempt to keep up with the Stars’ Jason Robertson. He’s also drawn two minor penalties, meaning Stanley has put the Jets short-handed five extra times this season. This ties him with Josh Morrissey for the worst penalty differential on the Jets, though Morrissey has played over three times as many minutes.

This is the norm for Stanley. No Jets skater has put his team short-handed more often per minute of ice time over the past three seasons than Stanley. His lack of footspeed puts him in bad positions. His size may make him a target for referees. He also tries to play with a physical edge — something coaches have asked of the 6-foot-7 defender for his entire career.

Here, Stanley looks slow on a play that most defencemen would struggle with.

It is important to put Stanley’s struggles into context. His extra five penalties this season are worth roughly one extra goal against — not a catastrophic figure.

This Jets coaching staff has also done a good job of keeping Stanley away from top competition. Winnipeg’s top-four defencemen play the most minutes — and the highest percentage of their minutes — against elite competition. The third pair, whether Stanley is a part of it or not, plays a disproportionate amount of its limited ice time against third and fourth lines. It has been outshot but has won those minutes 8-3 in real goals with Stanley on the ice.

This isn’t to say Heinola is automatically the answer. The Jets tried Heinola and Stanley together on Tuesday, with Arniel cautioning before the game that the key would be for each defenceman to keep things simple and play to their strengths. Heinola and Stanley took turns covering for each other as the other got caught up ice on aggressive plays, and Heinola took a third-period penalty.

There were bright moments, too, but it looks like Winnipeg’s third pair is going to be a work in progress until Samberg returns.

At 26, Stanley’s career arc looks more like that of Nathan Beaulieu or Tucker Poolman than Jamie Oleksiak. Oleksiak delivered second-pairing results as young as 25, did it again at 26, and then continued to get even better than that. Heinola’s career arc is too spotted by injury and AHL time to be sure about. At 23, he is still in a key developmental window. Stanley is at an age many analysts consider a player’s peak. (I tend to think improved reads, consistency and experience help some players get better beyond their peak athletic years.)

Arniel’s goal is to gather more information about each player and put them in the best position to succeed.

Outlook: Inefficient. I think Stanley will continue to get minutes in what’s become an unofficial rotation. I think he’ll continue to struggle while providing physicality that other Jets defencemen don’t. It’s a position that likely requires a substantial upgrade between now and the playoffs.

But DeMelo’s struggles are a more impactful concern

Dylan DeMelo has far more potential to help or hurt the Jets than Stanley. He’s used as a top-pairing defenceman, regularly playing against other team’s top talent, and has had strong underlying numbers throughout his career. Last season, the Jets outscored their opponents 81-44 when DeMelo was on the ice while creating many quality chances and giving up relatively few.

This has not been the case so far this season.

DeMelo has been beaten in open ice with startling frequency this season. Here’s one from the Jets’ most recent road trip, with Connor Hellebuyck putting the play on his own highlight reel instead of Ryan Hartman’s.

DeMelo isn’t the biggest or fastest Jets defenceman but has a long and excellent defensive track record in Winnipeg. His positioning is usually sound. DeMelo tends to read the play quickly and has such a strong history of calm, perfectly placed breakout passes that Paul Maurice once referred to his play as “coaches’ porn.”

The Jets have been outscored 14-13 with DeMelo (and Morrissey) on the ice this season. They have also been outshot and outchanced from the middle of the ice. Recall that this pairing plays against elite competition — difficulty is expected — but it’s been much better in past seasons than it is right now.

Outlook: Mixed. In the short term, it seems clear that DeMelo is struggling. A multiyear track record of quality offers long-term confidence.

Aggressive, pinching defencemen are getting beat

The credit for this observation goes to Troy Smith, former Kitchener Rangers head coach, and to Jeff Marek, who included it in his blog. There is one way in which teams have started to attack Winnipeg from a tactical perspective.

Winnipeg’s defencemen attack other team’s breakouts when the Jets are in the offensive zone. They do this by pinching up the boards, taking time and space away from wingers who are trying to get the puck moving north for the other team. It’s a play that takes great timing, aggression and trust in Winnipeg’s forwards to get back on defence and sort out the next play.

Smith put together this highlight package of other teams “counter-pinching” against the Jets. In it, he shows four plays in which Winnipeg’s defencemen jump up to stop the breakout pass but find that their opponents have a plan for what comes next.

“We gave up a lot of rush chances in our last three games and, for me, there’s a lot of mental (aspects) to that,” Arniel said on Tuesday. “That’s usually not us. Whether it’s our D’s gap, whether it’s our F3 or F4 always pouring back, whether maybe in the offensive zone, we get three guys caught.”

As far as I can tell, that last part is the key. Watch Winnipeg’s forwards in the clips Smith put together. Winnipeg’s F3 gets back into the play in three out of four clips but, when teams counter-pinch against the Jets like that, one backchecking forward isn’t helpful enough. A Jets defenceman has been caught high up the ice and the only way for Winnipeg to avoid an odd-man rush is if its F4 wins his race, too.

Outlook: This is a tough ask — the read and the speed alike — because Winnipeg wants to be aggressive in the offensive zone. It’s also an ask that a contending-tier team would make, and that’s how these Jets want to be seen.

(Photo of Scott Arniel behind the Jets bench: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)





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About The Author

Fannie Hogan is a writer and editor who covers lifestyle, books, sports, education, and tech. She's always loved to write—from the time she was a little girl writing stories about talking animals to the day she got her first job as an editor at a lifestyle magazine. Her hobbies include long walks on the beach, running, and taking breaks from work to read a good book.

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