What are the chances of Nottingham Forest qualifying for the Champions League?

“We’re gonna win the league, we’re gonna win the league.”

As the Everton fans began to file out of Goodison Park, the party in the away end only got more raucous.

The travelling Nottingham Forest fans even managed to coax a wave from Nuno Espirito Santo before the final whistle blew on their 2-0 victory, sealed with goals from Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White.

Forest find themselves in uncharted territory. Or, more accurately, territory they have not explored in the best part of three decades.

There remained a slight tinge of self-deprecation in the chants about winning the league, even if Nuno’s side are one of a handful of teams who look like they could keep Liverpool honest, as Arne Slot’s team push for what feels like an increasingly inevitable title following their 5-0 win over West Ham.

We’re in this together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/COUQPkzPXr

— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 29, 2024

But that does not mean Forest fans are not daring to dream of where this remarkable journey might lead them after finishing the day in second place. Whatever results Chelsea and Arsenal achieve on Monday, Forest will start 2025 in the top four. Comfortably so.

Now after securing their fifth straight Premier League win, one question is being asked with increasing seriousness…

Can Nottingham Forest dare to dream of European football?

Well, yes. The last time they qualified for Europe was when they finished third in 1994-95, under Frank Clark. If it means anything, that was also the last time the side won five Premier League games in a row — but Forest’s record at this point is better than it was then.

This is now more than just a good start: 19 games played is the halfway point of the season.

In the last 10 campaigns, the average points tally required to finish one point ahead of the team finishing fifth (and thereby securing fourth place and Champions League qualification along with it) has been 68.5 points.

In 2019-20, 63 points would have been enough to finish ahead of fifth-placed Leicester. In 2016-17, it would have required 76 points to pip Arsenal for the final Champions League spot.

It is never this straightforward, of course, and many will expect a wobble for Forest at some point. But if Nuno’s side can match their points haul from the first half of the campaign (37 points) in the 19 remaining games, they would finish with 74 — enough to secure Champions League football in nine of the past 10 seasons.

What does history tell us?

Forest were in fourth place on Christmas Day. Over the past 32 years, the teams in fourth place on Christmas Day have finished somewhere in the top four 15 times.

Manchester United won the title from that position in both 1992-93 and 2008-09.

In contrast, West Ham (in 2014-15) and Southampton (in 2003-04) both dropped away and finished in 12th.

So history tells us — very broadly speaking — that just under 50 per cent of teams in Forest’s position at Christmas have secured a top-four finish.

Where are they projected to finish?

In recent years for Forest fans, the very mention of the words ‘supercomputer’ is normally followed by some bleak prediction that their team will finish in the relegation zone.

But now Opta’s League Prediction model is suggesting a rather more positive outcome.

It estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position by using the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss), betting market odds, the Opta Power Rankings and simulating the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times.

Where Forest are concerned, it predicts they have a 0.5 per cent chance of finishing second, a 2.8 per cent chance of finishing third, a 10.1 per cent chance of finishing fourth and a 21.5 per cent chance of finishing fifth.

Could fifth place be enough for Champions League qualification?

Possibly, yes.

UEFA will award extra Champions League qualification spots at the end of the season based on various coefficients linked to the performance of each nation’s clubs in European competitions.

England missed out last season when Premier League clubs faltered in the latter stages of UEFA competitions but, if they fare better this time, there is a chance an additional fifth Champions League qualification could be handed to Premier League clubs.

The fifth-placed team and the winners of the FA Cup will both secure a place in the UEFA Europa League, although if the FA Cup winners also qualify for the Champions League via their league position, then the sixth-placed team would qualify.

The Carabao Cup winners also qualify for the UEFA Conference League and, in a similar fashion, their Conference League playoff place will go to the next-highest ranked team that has not qualified for UEFA competitions in the Premier League.

Even a sixth or seventh-place finish could see Forest return to Europe.

Does Nuno think they can do it?

“We are enjoying this. We are enjoying it because our fans are with us. You can see during the game, they were helping, singing, giving energy to the team,” said the Forest head coach, when asked after the Everton match if he was daring to dream of European qualification.

“We have to enjoy the journey. But we cannot change. We have not achieved anything yet. The bond is growing. Our fans are not nervous. That is a symptom of confidence and belief. I hope we can continue giving them these moments of joy.”

(Top photo: Jan Kruger/Getty Images)