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Today, we’re covering the playoff schedule, 2025 draft order (with some picks!) and the coaching carousel.
Playoff trivia: Since 2011, only one wild-card team has played in — and won — the Super Bowl. Can you name that team? Answer is at the bottom.
But first, we’re here a bit later than usual today, to make sure we’ve caught you up on the morning flurry.
Coaching Carousal: Two coaches out, Daboll still in
In 1998, the Associated Press ran an article headlined, “Black Monday for NFL coaches,” helping to nickname the day after the regular season finale, when teams most often fire head coaches and general managers.
The day’s not over yet, but we’ve already seen a flurry of activity — you can follow along with The Athletic’s live tracker here. So far:
- OUT: Patriots fire Jerod Mayo. Having been burdened by one of the league’s worst rosters, Robert Kraft’s hand-picked replacement leaves after just one season. (Still, this is a coveted job, as Dianna explains below.) Former Patriot Mike Vrabel has shown interest in the position, and the team is expected to pursue him. It appears de facto GM Eliot Wolf will remain for a second season.
- OUT (and IN): Jaguars fire HC Doug Pederson, but retain GM Trent Baalke. The 2017 Super Bowl champ ends his three-year Jacksonville stint with a playoff victory and the third-best winning percentage (43.1 percent) in team history, behind Tom Coughlin and Jack Del Rio. As for Baalke’s return, that might surprise Jaguars fans.
- IN: Giants retain HC Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen. That’s despite Daboll’s 36.3 winning percentage ranking 181st among history’s 204 qualified coaches, per PFR. It’ll be a pivotal 2025, but holding the No. 3 pick helps.
- IN: Colts retain HC Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard. Steichen’s now 17-17, and Indy has gone 62-69-1 during Ballard’s tenure. I’m not sure how I feel about either. The future of DC Gus Bradley is uncertain.
- IN: Dolphins retain HC Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier. Though they might be without star receiver Tyreek Hill, who told reporters, “I’m out, bro. It was great playing here, but at the end of the day, I gotta do what’s best for my career. Cause I’m too much of a competitor to be just out there.”
- 🤷 Raiders HC Antonio Pierce’s future uncertain. In case he returns after posting a 9-17 record (including his impressive 2023 interim stint), Vic Tafur lists necessary changes.
- OUT: Bengals fire DC Lou Anarumo. One of the league’s longest-tenured coordinators (six seasons), he should be a sought-after candidate despite overseeing a defense that declined each season since that 2021 AFC title. Paul Dehner Jr. explores the candidates in Cincinnati. Offensive line coach Frank Pollack was also fired along with two other defensive coaches.
We’ll keep you updated here throughout the week. Before we talk playoffs, over to Dianna for a key detail on the top opening:
What Dianna’s Hearing: All eyes on Foxboro
As for what’s next in New England, the Patriots could ultimately have their choice of top coaching candidates. Why? One reason: Drake Maye.
Franchises that have quarterbacks in place are always attractive this time of year, and the Patriots undoubtedly have that in Maye, who just completed his rookie season with 15 touchdowns after taking over in October.
Last week I asked three general managers where they thought Maye would land if he were in this upcoming draft class; all three answered No. 1 overall.
Back to you, Jacob.
Playoff Picture: Detroit W finalizes field
Last night, the Lions’ depleted defense kept the pressure on Sam Darnold, who completed just 43.9 percent of his passes for 166 yards — the lowest single-game marks of his otherwise MVP-caliber 2024.
Two Jared Goff interceptions were not enough for a defense that failed to contain Jahmyr Gibbs (170 total yards, four TDs), as Detroit bulldozed the Vikings 31-9.
With the victory, the best regular season in Lions history produces a first-round bye … and of course, more injured defenders, including first-round CB Terrion Arnold, who was carted off in the third quarter (thankfully, X-rays came back negative). We’ll know more today.
Your 2024-2025 NFL Wild Card schedule:
NFL wild-card weekend
| Game | Time | TV |
|---|---|---|
|
Saturday |
||
|
Chargers (5) at Texans (4) |
4:30 p.m. |
CBS |
|
Steelers (6) at Ravens (3) |
8 p.m. |
Amazon |
|
Sunday |
||
|
Broncos (7) at Bills (2) |
1 p.m. |
CBS |
|
Packers (7) at Eagles (2) |
4:30 p.m. |
FOX |
|
Commanders (6) at Bucs (3) |
7:30 p.m. |
NBC |
|
Monday |
||
|
Vikings (5) at Rams (4) |
8 p.m. |
ESPN |
|
Bye: Chiefs (1), Lions (1) |
A quick note on each matchup, with odds from BetMGM:
Packers at Eagles (-5): 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday: In Week 1, Philly won this matchup in Brazil despite turning the ball over three times and recording fewer total yards, thanks to the Packers’ struggles in the red zone. Yesterday, the Packers lost their most explosive receiver, Christian Watson, before Jordan Love exited with an elbow injury. The QB expects to play.
- X-factor: Another QB’s health, as Jalen Hurts has yet to practice since suffering a concussion in Week 16.
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3): 8 p.m. Sunday: Tampa Bay is the hardest team to read, having lost to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys along the way to finishing with a 4-3 record against playoff teams, including wins over the Lions and Eagles and a 37-20 win in Jayden Daniels’ first start. Meanwhile, Washington went 1-4 against playoff teams.
Vikings (-2.5) at Rams: 8 p.m. Monday: Minnesota visits a team that won their Week 7 matchup 30-20 (remember that questionable facemask no-call?). Darnold’s first-ever playoff game comes after one of his worst performances as a Viking, while Matthew Stafford’s ninth career playoff start follows a week off.
The Lions will host the lowest remaining seed after the Wild Card round, meaning a good chance of a Vikings rematch. On to the AFC:
Chargers (-3) at Texans: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday: Jim Harbaugh’s team joins the Vikings as the only lower seeds projected to win in this round. Many scoff at Houston’s 1-5 record against playoff teams (including a win over the Bills), but the Chargers went a similar 2-5, only beating the seventh-seeded Broncos twice.
- X-factor: Both offenses, as they each struggle with consistency.
Steelers at Ravens (-9.5): 8 p.m. Saturday: Their third meeting of the year — they split the series, with Pittsburgh winning 18-16 in Week 11 before losing 34-17 in Week 15 — begins with Baltimore as this round’s biggest favorite.
- X-factor: George Pickens, who had three drops, one catch and zero yards in Pittsburgh’s 19-17 Saturday loss to the Bengals. He caught 8 of 12 targets in their Week 11 win.
Broncos at Bills (-9): 1 p.m. Sunday: These two head coaches met in 2023, when Vance Joseph’s defense recorded four turnovers as the Broncos upset the Bills in Orchard Park. But with MVP-favorite Josh Allen turning the ball over at the lowest rate of his career and Denver’s 1-6 record against playoff opponents (excluding their 38-0 drubbing of Kansas City’s backups yesterday), the Bills are rightfully big favorites.
The Chiefs‘ opponent is likeliest to be the division-rival Chargers, per our playoff projection tool.
But I want to hear from you: Which teams advance from the Wild Card round? Click here to make your picks. We’ll share the results later this week.
2025 NFL Draft: Tennessee on the clock
2025 NFL Draft
| Pick | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
3-14 |
|
|
2 |
3-14 |
|
|
3 |
3-14 |
|
|
4 |
4-13 |
|
|
5 |
4-13 |
|
|
6 |
4-13 |
|
|
7 |
5-12 |
|
|
8 |
5-12 |
|
|
9 |
5-12 |
|
|
10 |
5-12 |
Yesterday finalized some things for non-playoff teams as well. A quick look at the first five picks in the upcoming draft, together with expert Nick Baumgardner’s mock picks:
- Titans: Miami QB Cam Ward. If the Will Levis experiment is over — and after a 5-16 record with 185.7 passing yards per game, it should be — then a quarterback should be the first pick for the seventh time in eight years.
- Browns: LSU OT Will Campbell. Cleveland needs cheap help all over the roster, so a trade-back would make the most sense.
- Giants: Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders. It feels like most scouts rank Ward first among QBs, but we’ll see whether the next few months change that. Either way, the Giants shouldn’t leave the first round without a QB.
- Patriots: Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter. No team is as desperate for talent on both sides of the ball. After missing on their 2024 WR class, they need the Heisman winner on offense.
- Jaguars: Michigan DT Mason Graham. KC’s Chris Jones continues to prove the value of a strong DT, and while Graham has room to improve, he could immediately strengthen Jacksonville’s interior defense.
For the remaining 13 picks by the teams whose draft spots are official, you can read the full article.
Trivia answer: The only wild-card team to make the Super Bowl since 2011? Tom Brady’s 2020 Buccaneers, who won it all after finishing behind the 12-4 Saints in the NFC South.
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