Tendering contracts to all 11 arbitration-eligible players clarifies some of the Minnesota Twins’ initial roster questions as the offseason gets rolling.
In particular, the decisions to retain both Justin Topa ($1.225 million) and Michael Tonkin ($1 million) as inexpensive bullpen options matches the perception that the front office is working with essentially zero spending room thanks to ownership sticking with a payroll in the $130 million range.
Departing free agents Carlos Santana and Max Kepler leave holes in the lineup and Kyle Farmer, Manuel Margot and Caleb Thielbar will also need replacing, but the roster won’t be significantly different than the one that collapsed down the stretch unless the Twins’ front office initiates major changes with trades. And that’s a very real possibility.
In the meantime, we’ve done our best to project what the Opening Day roster would look like if the season started right now, which should at least provide a sense of where help is or isn’t needed and which areas the Twins could look to part with core pieces to address other needs. This is merely a first draft, with months of revisions to come.
Catchers (2)
In: Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers
Others on the 40-man roster: Jair Camargo
Aaron Gleeman: Remarkably, the Twins have needed just two starting catchers in back-to-back years, as Vázquez (172 starts) and Jeffers (152 starts) both stayed healthy while splitting the job. Camargo was called up for a few brief stints last season, but logged no starts behind the plate. They could opt for the same catching setup in 2025.
However, with Vázquez owed $10 million and Jeffers projected to make about $5 million in arbitration, that’s a big chunk of a $130 million payroll devoted to a position where the Twins ranked just 18th in OPS last season. Will they run it back with Vázquez and Jeffers for a third time? Or will they trade a veteran to shed salary and elevate Camargo?
Dan Hayes: If the Twins were to trade Vázquez, I could still see them trying to add a more affordable veteran backstop rather than simply handing the reins over to Camargo.
This is a team that wants to win and needs to put a good product on the field to attract direct-to-consumer broadcast subscribers, as well as fans to the ballpark. Given the pitching staff the Twins have assembled, pairing Jeffers with an inexperienced backstop seems like an incredible risk to take into the season.
Such a plan hurt them in 2021, when Mitch Garver got hurt and caught only 53 games, leaving Jeffers, who’d caught 25 entering that season, to be the lead option. The same type of plan crushed them in 2018 when Garver, who’d caught 13 games, became the lead catcher after Jason Castro blew out his knee. Were the Twins to enter next season with Jeffers and Camargo, they’re an injury away from a rookie with one inning caught in the majors being the lead guy.
CHRISTIAN VÁZQUEZ WALK-OFF HOME RUN 💣🔥🔥
(via @BallySportsNOR)pic.twitter.com/fGMlmqsQaB
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 7, 2024
Infielders (6)
In: Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda, Willi Castro, Edouard Julien
Others on the 40-man roster: N/A
Hayes: Infield is an area where the Twins are relatively stable and also looking for a reasonable boost in production from a number of players who failed them down the stretch last season.
Among the players listed, only Castro seems like a strong trade candidate because of his $6.2 million salary. But the 2025 Twins are only going to go as far as Lewis, Lee and Miranda take them. All three showed flashes of greatness in the first half but then struggled when the Twins needed them to pick up the slack after Correa and Byron Buxton suffered injuries.
Lewis faced every challenge possible last season and it wore him down at the end. Feels like he’s due for a big rebound.
Gleeman: This could be really simple, with Correa at shortstop, Lewis and Lee flanking him on either side and Miranda at first base. That would leave Castro in a utility role and likely mean Julien begins the year in the minors. (He’s listed as “in” here because no other full-time infielder is on the 40-man roster.)
But this is also where the Twins could try to trade from a surplus to address other needs, depending on which infielders they see as part of the future core. It’s also possible Julien gets another crack at the second base job while Lee goes back to the minors for a bit. And the Twins might even shift Lewis to second base and use Lee at third base, which has certainly been discussed more since Lewis’ brief second-half cameo there.
Outfielders (5)
In: Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Michael Helman
Others on the 40-man roster: Emmanuel Rodriguez, DaShawn Keirsey Jr.
Gleeman: I feel confident Buxton will be flanked by Wallner and Larnach in the starting outfield, but less sure what the backups will look like after Martin struggled on both sides of the ball in 2024. For now, Martin and Helman get the nods almost by default, but if the Twins want to focus on defense, Keirsey is probably the organization’s second-best center fielder.
I assume the Twins will be in the market for a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder with some thump to pair with lefty bats Wallner and Larnach, but I’ve been assuming that for the past several years and been wrong every time. Backup outfielders is an area where the lack of payroll space could have a direct impact on their options and decision-making.
Hayes: This is a spot where a righty bat like Mark Canha might make sense. It’s clear the Twins could use someone to play first base and corner outfield. With Farmer and, presumably, Santana gone, they need veteran presence.
Even though Canha struggled in Detroit last season, he was still nearly a league-average bat, a status he reattained over the final two months in San Francisco. Between first base and the corners, he would give manager Rocco Baldelli the flexibility to balance the lineup.
Starting pitchers (5)
In: Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack
Others on the 40-man roster: David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, Travis Adams, Matt Canterino
Hayes: We knew right away Ryan’s injury in August would be detrimental to the team’s chances, but it seemed to be even more damaging than anyone imagined. All indications are Ryan is recovering nicely and should be ready for spring training, which means the Twins’ rotation is in good shape.
Paddack is a prime trade candidate, but if he’s dealt the Twins would still have six starters with experience because of last year’s injuries. Who knows what the young trio of Woods Richardson, Festa and Matthews can do in year two, but the Twins are in better shape than having to rely on Anthony DeSclafani.
Gleeman: Rotation depth is important, but like you said, trading Paddack and the $7.5 million he’s owed in 2025 would make all kinds of sense. For now, he’s blocking Festa, who looked like he belonged in the majors in the second half and has front-line starter upside at age 25. I also think Andrew Morris is closer than fans may realize.
There are plenty of “ifs” involved, from Ryan’s health and López’s consistency to the trio of young arms continuing to develop, but this has the potential to be a very good rotation led by three young-ish veterans and a bunch of sophomores, rookies and prospects. I’d be looking to shed Paddack and go with younger in-house options, but it’s not without risk.
David Festa racks up a career-high nine strikeouts 🔥
MLB’s No. 87 prospect (@Twins) scatters two hits and two walks across five scoreless innings. pic.twitter.com/AhhauXye8N
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 6, 2024
Relief pitchers (8)
In: Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcala, Michael Tonkin, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk
Others on the 40-man roster: Louie Varland, Ronny Henriquez, Brent Headrick
Gleeman: Duran, Jax and Sands are clearly the top three relievers, and the Twins chose to cheaply retain Stewart, Alcala, Tonkin and Topa for a combined $4.6 million. That would leave just one bullpen spot up for grabs if everyone is healthy, but Stewart is coming back from August shoulder surgery and Topa’s troublesome left knee is a big question mark.
Varland is on the outside looking in here, but he’s very capable of earning an Opening Day spot and possibly even a late-inning gig. Funderburk was injured and ineffective last season, but the Twins presumably want at least one left-hander in the bullpen and Headrick is the only other southpaw currently on the 40-man roster. I’d bet on that changing.
Hayes: Pitching is why the Twins’ early offseason projections from FanGraphs and various betting oddsmakers are surprisingly optimistic. They have depth and there are plenty of power arms in the bullpen.
Do I expect them to go into the season with this group? No. Somehow the Twins must reallocate their resources to improve the edges of the roster. They need some new voices and skill sets. And the easiest place to trade from is the pitching staff. Would they trade one of their top relievers? Hard to say, but it might be on the table. There’s a lot of work to be done to turn this team into a contender.
(Photo of Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner: Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images)
