Election Day is about 20 days away, and polls suggest that it will be close in several key states. Yet it did not have to be that way. Indeed, the Republicans missed an opportunity to decisively win the White House when Donald Trump won the right to be their nominee.
Trump has a loyal following. If they show up, it will ensure he wins no less than 219 electoral votes. However, his loyal followers alone are insufficient to put him in the White House. What is needed are independents and a sufficient number of moderate Republicans who want a change of direction.
The problem that many such voters have in this election is Trump’s style, even when they favor his policies over those offered by Kamala Harris and the Democrats.
Movements labeled “Democrats for Trump” are few and far between. Yet “Republicans for Harris” are ubiquitous. Many former Trump officials and staffers have stated that he is unfit to hold the office of president. Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) has gone so far as to campaign with Harris in Wisconsin.
In a year when several states will be won at the margins, a few thousand moderate Republicans crossing the line may be enough to make a difference in the final Electoral College tally.
If the Republicans had put a less polarizing person at the head of their ticket, they would have been well situated to win back the White House, given Biden’s low approval rating and how unhappy people are with the direction of the country. That is one reason Trump was so upset when Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
The choice between Trump and Biden was more favorable for Trump. Though debates do not win elections, Biden’s debate performance exposed his weaknesses. If he had been forced to run a national campaign for president, the physical and mental effort would have been overwhelming for him, further exposing his limitations.
Biden’s exit left Trump to be the oldest politician standing, contrasting with the much younger Harris. While Trump looked vibrant when facing Biden, he looked far more dated against Harris.
This has made the White House more of a stretch for Republicans. Yet conceding is never good politics. Control of the House and Senate are still up for grabs, and the GOP is salivating to win both. But to achieve these objectives, Trump’s loyalists must show up to vote. With them, the House and Senate are well within striking distance.
This motivates Trump to keep making false claims and statements that keep his loyalists engaged. The most famous statement is that the 2020 election was fraud-laden and that it was stolen from him, something that has been refuted in multiple courts and even by people hired by Trump to uncover voter fraud.
In fact, during the vice presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), Vance was directly asked about this issue. Though many claim that he avoided the question, he, in fact, did answer it, since there are really just two possible answers which can be delivered in a variety of ways.
One response is that the election was indeed stolen from Trump, something that Trump openly claims. Vance did not offer such a response. Another response is that the election was not stolen, and the results were in fact true. Vance again did not offer that response.
But if Vance actually believed that there was evidence that the election was stolen, he would have had no problem parroting Trump’s rhetoric. Vance, however, is 40 years old, whereas Trump is 78. Vance’s political career has a long runway before him, with runs for the White House likely in his future.
To repeat Trump’s disinformation would come back to bite him many years down the road. Lying was not an option for him, and he was savvy enough to know it.
Yet saying that the election was not stolen would have been problematic for Trump’s campaign with his loyalists, effectively weakening down-ballot races for Republican candidates, including House and Senate races, and even some state contests. Contradicting the top of the GOP ticket was simply not an option.
This means that Vance avoided answering the question. Yet by not answering, he avoided lying without hurting his ticket. It also means that he believes that the election was not stolen, something that investigations have consistently concluded.
This election was the Republicans’ for the taking. Though many economic indicators are favorable, the uptick in inflation during the Biden administration, no matter what the cause, gives many voters a reason to wish for change. Yet with Trump on the top of the GOP ticket, his style is creating headwinds for some to support him.
When the final count is completed, and history is made with Harris winning the White House, we will hear all the usual calls of a stolen election. Given that this is the expected response from Trump, the element of surprise has been neutralized.
Such an outcome could have been avoided with a more widely appealing choice on the top of the ticket for a broader swath of voters. Traditional Republicans know this and will need to keep this in mind when planning for 2028.
Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
