As 2025 begins, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) faces a perilous challenge to retain his gavel. When the House votes on Friday, Johnson can only afford to lose one Republican representative.
The problem? Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has already vowed to oppose him, likening Trump’s endorsement of Johnson to his controversial backing of former Speaker Paul Ryan. Meanwhile, others, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), remain undecided. To say that Johnson is teetering on the edge of a political abyss would not be an overstatement.
For those of us in the chattering class, the prospect of New Year congressional theatrics is irresistible. But the smart move for Republicans would be to bypass the melodrama and reelect Johnson — at least for now.
The immediate reasons are obvious. As Fox News correspondent Chad Pergram warns, “The House absolutely, unequivocally, cannot do anything until it elects a speaker. Period. The House can’t swear in members … This also means that the House cannot certify the results of the Electoral College, making Trump the 47th president of the United States on Jan. 6.”
But the stakes go beyond urgent procedural necessities. Trump will effectively be a lame-duck president, with his best chance to advance an agenda in his first two years, when Republicans control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. With a razor-thin House majority, the GOP must decide whether to unite and accept the messy realities of governing (i.e., MAGA realizing that they don’t have enough votes to do everything Trump promised) or squander precious time chasing ideological purity (to the degree that MAGA even has a coherent ideology).
A drawn-out battle over the Speaker’s gavel would be the worst way to begin the 2025 legislative session. Beyond wasting time, it risks reducing the party’s leadership struggle to a futile game of musical chairs.
This is not an exaggeration. Johnson’s rise highlights a broader paradox. Nicknamed “MAGA Mike” and labeled an “election denier” for his efforts to challenge the 2020 results, Johnson was elevated in 2023 as a backbench conservative to counter the Republican establishment represented by Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Yet now, some grassroots voices that celebrated Johnson’s ascent have accused him of being insufficiently committed to the cause.
This recurring cycle raises an uncomfortable question: If every conservative Speaker is eventually accused of “selling out,” is it because all conservatives secretly become establishment insiders? Or does the grassroots right demand policies so extreme or impractical that no leader — however ideologically pure — can effectively govern while adhering to them?
For now, Johnson’s thankless challenge is to maintain unity within a fractious GOP coalition that is divided over issues like spending cuts and Trump’s potentially unrealistic desire to raise the debt ceiling before his second term begins. Failure to deliver results risks reinforcing perceptions among Trump’s base that establishment “swamp creatures” are obstructing their will.
Meanwhile, Johnson faces scrutiny not just for his policies but also for his appearance and demeanor. Trump recently praised him as “a good, hard-working, religious man.” Qualities like these are typically strengths, but in the hyper-macho MAGA world, they risk being cast as weaknesses, fueling doubts about Johnson’s ability to lead a movement defined by confrontation and disruption.
But for those who believe the GOP would be better off with a stronger leader, it’s worth asking what will happen if Johnson is ousted. Would he quietly go back to being a rank-and-file member of the House? With their tiny majority, Republicans obviously could not afford to have him step down from Congress, even if the vacancy were only temporary.
Patience and pragmatism — sticking with Johnson — would seem to be the obvious path forward. But for a party that thrives on chaos, such restraint is easier said than done. Their leader, Trump, exemplifies this contrarian dynamic. While Trump’s current self-interest aligns with pragmatism, his entire ethos rejects it. Unlike President Barack Obama’s mantra of “don’t do stupid s—,” Trumpism thrives on breaking things and flooding the zone with … s—.
This lack of discipline has serious consequences. Internal dissent has thwarted Trump’s agenda before, most notably with Sen. John McCain’s “thumbs down” on repealing Obamacare in 2017. With a slim House majority, even minor fractures could derail Trump’s second-term legislative ambitions.
For now, Republicans’ smartest move is also their simplest: Reelect Johnson. A fractured GOP risks not only political embarrassment but also the inability to deliver on the promises that brought them to power.
If Johnson falters later, the party can always reconsider its options — but starting the year with a self-inflicted crisis would be a catastrophic mistake.
Matt K. Lewis is a columnist, podcaster and author of the books “Too Dumb to Fail” and “Filthy Rich Politicians.”
