There are two likely results from the disastrous wildfires burning in the Los Angeles area. First, thousands of Californians who lost their homes will respond to the tragedy by moving from the worst-managed state in the country to a red state with its lower taxes and cost of living and more political sanity and accountability. Second, those who remain will begin the effort to oust some of the incompetent elected leaders and vote in more responsible people.
Either way, there’s a good chance that a red state is in many (perhaps most?) Californians’ future.
The California exodus has already been going on for years. A poll conducted by Emerson College and released last October found, “About 56% of respondents said they have considered leaving California due to the high cost of living.”
A KTLA news story added that California “has the highest median single-family home price in the U.S., and California drivers pay more for gasoline than those in other states.”
That helps explain why 690,000 Californians moved to other states between 2022 and 2023, whereas only 422,000 people moved from other states to California, for a net outflow of approximately 270,000. Texas was the top choice for relocating Californians, but many other (mostly red) states also saw an influx of Californians, including Idaho, Utah, and Florida.
Many Californians who might have considered leaving have perhaps refrained because they would have to sell houses they may have lived in for years or leave schools, churches or synagogues they were attached to. Still others would miss friends and family who live locally.
The wildfires may be overriding those concerns for many Los Angeles-area residents. Their homes, and the homes of some of their friends and family, are gone. Local schools and houses of worship are in rubble. Perhaps even the place where they used to work has gone up in smoke.
Thousands in the Los Angeles area have a newfound freedom to move, because, as the song put it, they have nothing left to lose.
Meanwhile, to no one’s surprise, the blame-shifting among local politicians has already begun. Neither California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) nor Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) will accept any responsibility for the tragedy.
Newsom, echoed by most of the media, has long blamed climate change for California’s wildfires, even though state and local government mismanagement of powerlines and forests may have started or greatly exacerbated many of the fires. Someone should ask Newsom, given his hyper-awareness of climate change over the years, why California is so ill-prepared to respond to climate-related natural disasters.
Ironically, all the carbon emissions that Newsom has been trying to avoid with green policies are being canceled out by his lack of preparedness.
Bass will also be looking for scapegoats. She reportedly fired the fire department chief, Kristin Crowley, for suggesting the city had failed the department by cutting some $17 million from the department’s budget. But later statements from the mayor’s office said Crowley wasn’t fired, and they have been seen together at news conferences.
Newsom’s efforts to limit the flow of melting snowpack into reservoirs have not helped Los Angeles’s water-shortage problems, but merely reversing them would probably not have been enough to prevent this. Then again, there were other things the governor didn’t do but should have, including building more reservoirs and improving the city’s decades-old water system. He should also start transferring less money to green energy projects and more to improvements in state and city infrastructure.
Californians who leave the state can’t do much about Newsom’s and Bass’s future, but those who stay can. According to the New York Post, more than 86,000 Angelenos have signed on to a petition to oust her for “gross mismanagement.” That may be just the beginning, given that Californians have already ousted many inept progressive elected officials by recalling them or by voting them out. Previous attempts to recall Newsom have failed, but voters may be having second thoughts.
Although most of the replacement politicians have been Democrats, usually claiming a moderate brand, that may change, given the devastation of the recent wildfires and the government’s incompetent response. Especially if the Los Angeles and Hollywood elites get involved.
At some point, Californians may begin remembering the glory days, when people around the country admired the state for its competent political leadership, strong economy, thriving cultural scene and mild weather.
The state might be able to return to those glory days, but only if voters hold their leadership accountable — starting with Bass and Newsom.
Merrill Matthews is a public policy and political analyst and the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff.”
