DALLAS — Juan Soto’s $765 million contract with the Mets smashed records and expectations. Soto’s deal is more than $300 million beyond the present-day value of Shohei Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers signed just last winter. His $51 million average annual value is more than 10 percent higher than Ohtani’s prior record.
Why did the bidding for Soto go this high? I had projected Soto for a 13-year, $611 million contract at the start of the offseason, and no outlet at that time expected the bidding to go over $650 million for Soto — let alone $750 million.
First, it’s because of his age. Players almost never hit free agency ahead of their age-26 season, let alone ones as accomplished as Soto. At 26, Soto is still younger than Adley Rutschman or Cole Ragans.
Soto is just the fourth major free agent in the last 15 years to hit the open market ahead of his age-26 season, joining Jason Heyward (2016), Bryce Harper and Manny Machado (2019 for each). Players typically peak in their late 20s, starting to decline in their early 30s. And so the average player that becomes a free agent at 30 offers only a season or two of his prime before he starts to fall off. It’s reasonable to expect Soto to be every bit as good as he was in 2024 for the next five to seven seasons.
Looking ahead, there’s no superstar on the horizon set to be a free agent this young anytime soon. Teams that might otherwise suggest they’re saving their money for a different free agent have little to fall back on.
Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras made sports contract history largely because the slugger reached free agency at an early age. (Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)
Bobby Witt Jr.’s extension with the Royals will last at least until he’s 30, Julio Rodriguez’s with the Mariners until he’s at least 29. The Brewers control Jackson Chourio until he’s 30.
Gunnar Henderson and Elly De La Cruz will be free agents ahead of their age-28 season, Jackson Merrill before age 27. That’s as close as you get with current big-leaguers.
We’ve seen teams pay premiums for a player’s prime before. Just go back to last year and the Dodgers’ deal with right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Los Angeles made Yamamoto the sport’s highest-paid pitcher before he’d thrown a pitch in the major leagues because he was entering his age-25 season — a dynamic basically impossible for any domestic free agent to enjoy.
Second, Soto landed on the open market with the right teams looking to make a splash. He had just posted a career season to help lead the Yankees to their first pennant in 15 years; they had to bring him back. The Mets and Steve Cohen had the willingness and capability to push the price to infinity. The Red Sox were seeking to buy back some credibility after years of uncharacteristic frugality. The Blue Jays are stuck in a competitive purgatory with money to spend. And of course, the Dodgers could spend just about anything for anyone.
Contrast that with the landscape six years ago, when both Harper and Machado were free agents. Still owned by the Wilpons, the Mets were unserious about spending in free agency. The Red Sox had just won the World Series and wanted to start paring down their payroll. The Giants, after years of carrying a top-five payroll, were taking a step back as well. As much as they were spending at the time, the Dodgers preferred using free agency to complement a core built through the farm system and trades.
As a result, Harper signed for a smaller average annual value than expected with Philadelphia, and Machado landed with a team no one expected to spend, San Diego.
Third, it’s hard to overstate how good Soto has been before turning 26 on Oct. 25. Since integration, only nine players have accumulated more wins above replacement (according to Baseball Reference) through the age of 25 than Soto, who ranks ahead of luminaries like Willie Mays and Al Kaline at the same point in his career. Signing Soto doesn’t just mean a superstar on the field; it likely means another plaque in Cooperstown with your logo on it, a chance at history with 500 home runs or 3,000 hits.
That’s what the Mets are paying $765 million for.
(Top photo of Juan Soto: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
