Team Trump is losing two world wars.
The first is the one Russian President Vladimir Putin declared against the West when he invaded Ukraine. The second one is metaphorical — the one President Trump himself is now waging against U.S. allies.
This self-defeating approach certainly will not make America great again. To the contrary, if left unchecked, it could result in the partial or complete destruction of U.S. global economic and military power.
No country can survive being at war with everyone. The U.S. is confronted by a resurgent Russia in Europe, an emerging co-equal in China, by rogue regimes in Iran and North Korean intent on wielding nuclear weapons, and now by Houthi rebels intent on shutting down commercial and military shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Yet instead of rallying U.S. allies to this cause of defending democracy, Team Trump is starting trade wars, hinting that Washington may no longer fully back NATO. Some – including Vice President JD Vance – are arguing that the European Union should be left to its own defense on the continent and in the Red Sea.
What we are seeing here is an inversion of the normal use of the instruments of national power — diplomacy, information, military and economy or “DIME” — whereby the White House, wittingly or not, is weakening the U.S. on a global scale.
Consider Trump’s ill-advised approach to Putin in Ukraine. He made concession after concession to Russia, including partial ceasefires against energy targets in Russia and naval targets in the Black Sea — to get Putin to the negotiating table in Jeddah. Yet Moscow declared Tuesday that it rejects Trump’s ceasefire deal “in its current form.”
As we warned last week, Putin is just playing Trump for time. Why? Because Putin is preparing a new multi-front offensive in the Donbas. Indeed, on Monday the Kremlin announced that “one of the largest rounds of conscription to Russia’s military for several years is underway,”
Moscow is calling up 160,000 raw recruits — 10,000 more than in all of last year. Conscription in Russia is always prickly, so it is noteworthy that Putin is increasing numbers year-over-year. He would not do so without a purpose.
Putin is also playing proxy wars in the Middle East against Team Trump. As we warned, the Houthis in Yemen and Al-Shabaab in Somalia are not operating in vacuums. Russia is supplying ballistic missiles to Iran and Tehran is supplying both militant groups, which are threatening U.S. maritime shipping and naval forces in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and off the Horn of Africa.
Moscow is also attempting to run interference for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his nuclear weapons program. On Tuesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that there would be “catastrophic” results if Trump bombs Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, in the Indo-Pacific, Chinese President Xi Jinping is taking full advantage of Team Trump’s global missteps and the geopolitical vacuums they are creating across the region. To back its growing military power, Beijing announced in March it is increasing its defense budget by 7.2 percent in 2025.
Xi’s moves are just not on paper. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy is increasingly conducting highly visible military exercises to demonstrate its growing footprint across the Indo-Pacific.
This included conducting live-fire naval exercises off of the coast of Australia. A show of naval force in the Tasman Sea – a body of water that separates U.S. allies Australia and New Zealand. Continued harassment of Filipino shipping in the South China Sea. And, according to retired U.S. Air Force Col. Ray Powell, “an intrusive [Chinese Coast Guard] patrol to assert Chinese sovereignty in Indonesia’s internationally recognized exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea.”
Most ominous are Xi’s large-scale military exercises last week, which were designed to practice blockading and invading Taiwan. The drill, which involved nearly 100 Chinese vessels, “carried out precision strikes on simulated targets such as ports and energy facilities.” Simulated targets included “ports and energy facilities.”
Putin, in this vein, is not only playing Team Trump for time in Ukraine, but he is also giving Xi time and space to harass Taipei — and to seed doubt whether a White House that is questioning its NATO commitments can be relied upon to protect its allies in the Indo-Pacific including Taiwan, Japan and Australia. Far from separating Russia and China, Team Trump is bringing them closer together on a truly far-reaching global scale.
Given this growing kinetic “Axis of Evil” threat against the U.S., Team Trump should be reaching out to key allies to build a combined and united response. Yet, the White House — arguably dangerously wearing economic blinders — is doing just the opposite of that, declaring April 2 as “Liberation Day.”
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, warned Trump, “We have everything we need to protect our people and our prosperity. We have the strength to negotiate, we have the power to push back.” She is right. Combined, the EU is larger as a market than the U.S. economy as a whole.
In the defense industry, European allies are turning to South Korea and France to meet their weapons requirements, accounting for 6.5 percent of NATO’s European arms imports in 2024.
Nor is Xi ignoring the opening Team Trump is creating with the EU. China announced in late March that they were willing to work with Brussels to thwart Trump’s tariffs against the EU and Beijing.
Far from dividing Putin and Xi, they are solidifying their deepening “No Limits” Partnership. Likewise, far from intimidating Brussels, Team Trump is driving the EU back into closer economic ties with China that would come at the expense of U.S. industry.
If so, then Beijing through its Belt and Road Initiative would dominate trade in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. U.S. corporations and businesses would often find themselves on the outside looking in.
DIME is what typically wins U.S. wars, not loses them. Yet Trump is risking doing just that if he does not reverse course and stop squandering them.
Alienating your allies is a bad course of action. As the African proverb suggests, “If you want to go quickly, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.”
World War III can yet be won. Team Trump still holds all of the winning cards. It is time Trump collectively harnessed them again to advance U.S. national security interests and to deter Russia, China, Iran and the “Axis of Evil.”
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.