With the Winter Meetings less than two weeks away, the trade market is about to heat up and the Boston Red Sox figure to be active.
In searching for starting pitching while trying to break up redundancies on the roster, particularly among the slew of left-handed hitters, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow hasn’t been shy about the possibility of trades.
“As we think of a best way to put a team together that can contend for the division, we might have to be willing to make harder decisions,” Breslow told reporters at the GM Meetings earlier this month. “That’s not to say that like, ‘Oh, so we are trading them’ or ‘we aren’t trading them.’ That just means that you can’t look to the future forever. And one way that we realize the value of those players, sure, it’s potentially in a trade that kind of repackages their value in a better roster fit. In other ways, (it’s) for them to help us win games at Fenway themselves.”
Breslow has been careful not to tip his hand, as he’s likely considering several scenarios. While Boston’s top four prospects — Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Kyle Teel and Marcelo Mayer — will be sought after, so too will more proven young major leaguers like Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas.
The Red Sox have options on the free-agent market in pursuing starters and relievers, as well as right-handed hitters for the lineup, but Breslow was active on the trade market last winter and likely will be again this year.
We’ve already looked at the pros and cons of trading Abreu and Duran. Here we’ll take a look at why the Red Sox should — or shouldn’t — trade Casas.
Earlier in the offseason, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote about the need for the Red Sox to balance their lineup with right-handed bats and suggested trading Casas and signing Alex Bregman in free agency.
Asked at the GM Meetings about Casas, Breslow tried to tamp down trade rumors, but later also said no one is off limits.
“We’re glad he’s on our team,” Breslow said of Casas. “It’s hard to imagine we would ever line up in terms of value. Do we have to be open (to a trade)? Sure, but a middle-of-the-order bat who can hit 40 home runs and is under control for a while is a hard guy to trade.”
On Monday, Casas’ name surfaced again when Rosenthal, appearing on Foul Territory TV, speculated about Seattle’s need for a first baseman and suggested the Mariners could consider trading right-hander Bryan Woo for Casas, helping the Red Sox fulfill part of their starting pitching need.
“Ultimately, they need to find more balance.”@Ken_Rosenthal says the Red Sox need to find a Manny Ramirez to Devers’ David Ortiz. pic.twitter.com/4tkhvDXPeG
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) November 25, 2024
Woo, 24, isn’t quite as proven as Seattle’s George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but is still one of the best young starters in the league, having posted a 2.89 ERA in 22 starts last year. Rosenthal suggested of their starters, Seattle would be most willing to part with Woo.
Casas, who turns 25 in February, had a tough 2024 season after missing 98 games with a rib cartilage tear.
In 63 games before and after the injury, he hit .241 with an .800 OPS and 13 homers. It’s hard to know how Casas might have built on his 2023 season, his first full season in the majors, when he hit .263 with an .856 OPS and 24 homers in 132 games.
The power potential is apparent. Six of Casas’ 13 homers in 2024 came in a 14-game stretch in April just before he landed on the IL, and while he hit well shortly after returning from the IL in August, his bat cooled for several weeks before he hit another stride at the end of the season, hitting three homers in one game in late September.
In the context of Red Sox history, Casas’ homer potential is elite. His 41 homers through his first 215 games are tied for the most with Nomar Garciaparra and trailed only Ted Williams (42) and Tony Conigliaro (49).
Casas boasts a strong 14.1 percent career walk rate while his 26.9 percent career strikeout is above average. He’s struggled at times in being too selective at the plate and it should be interesting to see how he benefits from the Automatic Balls and Strike system MLB is likely to implement in the coming years.
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Why the Red Sox should trade Casas
Balance the lineup
One reason to trade Casas would be to balance out the lefty-leaning tilt of the lineup, particularly if the Red Sox are contenders to land another lefty slugger in Juan Soto. Casas is young and, as Breslow noted above, has the potential for regular 40-homer seasons, which makes him an enticing trade chip. Of their slew of lefty hitters, the Red Sox won’t be moving Rafael Devers, and Masataka Yoshida’s contract makes him tougher to move.
If the Red Sox want to hold onto lefties like Abreu and Duran in the outfield, Casas is the next logical choice to be traded.
On the free-agent market, the Red Sox could target right-handed first basemen like Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. There’s also another interesting option: St. Louis is keen on trading Nolan Arenado, a 10-time Gold Glove winner at third base, but The Athletic’s Katie Woo reports he’s willing to move to first base. This isn’t to say the Red Sox and Cardinals would trade Arenado and Casas one-for-one, but if the Red Sox traded Casas for pitching in Rosenthal’s scenario above, Arenado could be an option in a separate trade to fill first base. Arenado, who turns 34 in April, would not only offer right-handed balance and strong defense, even in shifting to first base, but is also close friends with shortstop Trevor Story from their Colorado days and could bolster the club’s veteran leadership.
Injury/durability concerns
Casas’ rib cartilage tear was a freak accident in many ways, incurred on a hard swing in late April. And while it was in a tricky area given the twisting of his torso necessary to swing a bat, some within the Red Sox were frustrated by how long it took for Casas to return as the Red Sox offense floundered after the break.
Casas is very regimented about his workout routines, but also has dealt with injuries each of the last three years. In 2023, his season ended in mid September with right shoulder inflammation and in 2022, before he debuted, he dealt with a high ankle sprain that kept him out for a month. Casas’ huge, 6-foot-5, 250-pound frame is a source of his immense power, but it also may be a reason for some injury concerns down the line.
Limited to first base now and in the future
Casas’ defense has improved significantly since his rookie year. In 2023, Casas struggled and had a -10 Outs Above Average, but that dropped to -2 OAA last season, albeit in fewer innings. Even in limited action last year, his picks were cleaner, his footwork was smoother and his instincts and familiarity with plays and opponents benefitted him.
At the same time, Casas is limited to first base on defense. Devers will eventually move to the DH role, so it’s not as if the Red Sox could shift Casas off first down the line as he grows older.
Why the Red Sox should not trade Casas
Casas’ power potential and age
We’ve noted it a few times here, but it’s not easy to come by a player with as much pure power as Casas and he hasn’t even reached his ceiling in that department. Casas doesn’t turn 25 until January, hasn’t hit his prime years yet and is under control through 2028.
The Red Sox lineup needs more — not less — power, and without Casas in 2024, Devers didn’t have much lineup protection. Even if the Red Sox replaced Casas’ bat with another power hitter, there would still be room to add more power to the lineup given Tyler O’Neill, their home run leader in 2024, is a free agent.
No easy replacement at first base
While Casas is limited to first base as we noted, the Red Sox also don’t have an easy replacement if they choose to trade him. They’d need to sign one of the free-agent first basemen, which could get expensive, or trade for a first baseman, which could affect their ability to trade for a starter. The idea of Devers moving to first base has been floated, but the logistics of that are challenging. Giving Devers a crash-course on learning first base in spring training seems risky and surely would lead to worse defense at first as he learns the position. That’s without even considering his willingness or desire to make the move.
Currently, Boston’s only significant first base prospect is Blaze Jordan and the Red Sox opted not to protect him in the Rule 5 draft, indicating they don’t think he’s capable of sticking on a big-league roster all year. And while Campbell has been mentioned as a potential option at first base, it seems like his defensive versatility would be wasted there.
Value is lower coming off an injured season
Casas still carries a lot of value, even coming off a year in which he missed two-thirds of the season. He’s a young, lefty power hitter, but does the injury give teams cause for concern? Does that mean the Red Sox would have to include a top-four prospect alongside Casas to land a pitcher rather than a group of lower level prospects? Does it make more sense to hold onto Casas now and trade Duran or Abreu who have more value, in turn opening up a crowded outfield, especially if they’re pursuing Soto? These are all questions the Red Sox front office is likely contemplating as the offseason progresses.
(Photo: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)
