Sean Dyche has been here before. Many times. Historically, August has been a challenging month for the Everton manager.
His overall Premier League win rate of just over 28 per cent, also encompassing his decade-long stint at Burnley, drops to just 12 per cent in the first month of the season. That is the second lowest (better only than Neil Warnock’s one win in 10 games) of all those to have taken charge of a minimum of 10 English top-flight fixtures in August.
Statistical quirk or not, it is notable; particularly in the context of Everton’s start, which is almost identical to the one 12 months ago. For the second time in a year, Dyche’s side have started with three league defeats and a Carabao Cup victory over Doncaster Rovers.
There were choice words in Dyche’s direction from some of the supporters who headed for an early exit after the late collapse against Bournemouth when Everton were 2-0 up with three minutes of the 90 to go. It is always difficult to judge exactly where the middle ground is with a fanbase, particularly in the social media age where the loudest voices are often the most prominent, but there is genuine disgruntlement at how Everton have begun.
Results like Saturday’s matter. They matter because fans are tired after witnessing three successive relegation battles and were hoping for signs this season could be different. They matter to Dyche and his players because nine minutes of carnage at the end completely undermined 87 minutes of positivity.
On days like these, the emotional, knee-jerk reaction is to assume Everton are never going to drag themselves out of the large hole they have found themselves in over the last three years. As I noted on The Athletic Football Podcast this week, fans are tired of being the fall guys, the whipping boys. The butt of all the jokes.
It is impossible to look at this start in isolation. Rather, it should be seen as part of an amorphous blob where seasons blend into each other and the same events keep happening on a loop.
Dyche’s watches on as his team somehow lost to Bournemouth (PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images)
It is for that reason, coupled with the nature of the other defeats to Brighton & Hove Albion and Tottenham Hotspur — Everton failed to score in either game, and conceded seven — that this start to the season seems to have hit hardest of all. A sense of collective fatigue has set in.
Go back even three weeks and there was genuine optimism. A sense that, even in tight financial circumstances, Everton had added a sprinkle of attacking quality to their strong spine.
Much of that has now been eroded, even if there is the odd cause for optimism. Iliman Ndiaye, anyone?
Dyche’s role in all of this remains intriguing. Whatever the reasons for his historical slow starts — the most obvious, albeit unproven theory here seems to be that a gruelling pre-season, heavy on running, has taken a toll — Everton have looked undercooked technically, tactically and physically.
Summer signings have been eased in out of choice and injuries have bitten. There were times in Saturday’s game where, with five replacements on the pitch, Bournemouth consistently ran through a visibly tiring Everton team.
Dyche’s football, at its best, is functional and capable of achieving bottom lines as a minimum. It will rarely be loved, or grant him the kind of extra grace afforded even to his less successful predecessor Frank Lampard. When results are bad, fans tend to lose patience quicker.
The problem is that Everton have not exhibited the traits you would expect from a usual Dyche team: defensive solidity, compact structure and set-piece dominance.
One of the best defensive units in the league last season has, with minimal upheaval, shipped the most goals (10). Failings have been widespread. There have been high-profile errors from senior players — Jordan Pickford and Idrissa Gueye to name two — and collective moments of amnesia. Dyche has been unable to change the course of games slipping away.
The manager rightly pointed out on Saturday that the responsibility for poor results rests on his shoulders. He also spoke about how “the noise had changed” for his players, seemingly suggesting that the outside focus on the club was impacting performances. “They are human beings,” he stressed.
Three games in and there is a notion that Everton are the Premier League’s crisis club — if there is even such a thing after only three games.
It was notable that one UK national newspaper at Saturday’s game chose to reference the “chatter” at Goodison surrounding former Everton manager David Moyes, now unemployed after leaving West Ham United at the end of the season, and the “long shadow he casts over the beleaguered Dyche”.
The reality is that almost nobody inside Everton thinks another managerial change is what the club need right now, as they seek a semblance of stability.
There is obvious disappointment but Dyche has ample credit in the bank for navigating last season’s points deductions and everything that came with them. Most would acknowledge he has had to work on a tighter budget than just about all of his peers, and that they would almost certainly be looking for a manager with his track record of surviving relegation if they ever decided to make a change.
There is an acceptance that results have not been good enough but confidence that they will improve once key players are back and new signings have properly bedded in. There is belief that they have more than enough to survive, particularly with more than 92 per cent of the season remaining.
The absence of Jarrad Branthwaite, who underwent surgery on a long-standing groin complaint over the summer, has weighed heavily. He was seen behind the scenes as the player who, once introduced to the team, added the most extra value last season.
The centre-back should be back sometime in September, and his return will provide a major boost to a fragile-looking defence.
Branthwaite, right, has been sorely missed and Tarkowski has been managing an injury (Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images)
Others, too, have looked short of match fitness and should improve in time.
The Athletic detailed before the start of the campaign how 13 Everton players had missed some of pre-season. Goalkeeper Pickford only returned from England duty to play in the final friendly against Roma, James Tarkowski struggled with a glute problem and Vitalii Mykolenko attempted to overcome a persistent ankle injury. As preparation goes, it was far from ideal.
There are moments that have provided cause for optimism, even if they have not outweighed the negativity. The first half against Brighton, an improved showing against Doncaster where new signings Ndiaye, Jesper Lindstrom and Jake O’Brien impressed, and the first 87 minutes against Bournemouth, considered to be among the most dominant football of Dyche’s tenure.
Tim Iroegbunam and Ndiaye have caught the eye. The side is exhibiting more creativity since Ndiaye, the Senegal forward, came into the side and Dwight McNeil moved inside. The surprise has been that Everton’s problems were the other way around last season. Their strength, defensive solidity, has been a weakness.
Perhaps the international break comes at a good time for Dyche, his players and fans. It offers the opportunity to pause and assess what is going wrong, to get players closer to fitness and reset.
Key will be learning some of the lessons from the past month, accepting mistakes have been made, failings have been widespread and correcting them.
Despite a bruising start, Dyche will be backed — and will back himself — to steady the ship once again.
(Top photo: Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)
