By Patrick Mooney, Chandler Rome and Sahadev Sharma
DALLAS — Two clubs confronting crossroads completed baseball’s biggest blockbuster trade on Friday when the Houston Astros sent Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs for a three-player package that includes infielder Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and touted infield prospect Cam Smith.
The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney analyze fallout from the deal.
How surprising is the Astros’ decision to move Tucker?
Rome: The premise always made logical sense, but executing it is another matter entirely. Most of Houston’s blockbuster trades during this decade involved bringing in superstar players — not shipping them out.
Trading Tucker runs counter to how the Astros have acted during their ascension into an American League superpower, but the club could not afford to stand pat this winter. Short of owner Jim Crane pushing the payroll to near $300 million, no obvious solution existed to enhance their sustainability.
Crane, who is more involved in baseball operations than most owners, has claimed the Astros’ championship window will never close during his tenure. That Crane gave his approval for this deal suggests general manager Dana Brown convinced his boss this will not impact his declaration.
Internal discussions about trading either Tucker or Framber Valdez date back to last year, but most dismissed it as nothing more than due diligence because such a concept was so against the Astros’ standard operating procedure.
Then, on Monday night, Brown claimed the Astros could win the American League West without one of those players. This was perhaps the most clear acknowledgement that Houston was open for business. Teams pounced and the Cubs won.
Why did the Cubs covet Tucker?
Mooney: The Cubs lineup needed a dynamic presence to take the pressure off everyone else, someone who could put up 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a .900 OPS. That star-level production helps other hitters relax, gives pitchers more breathing room and allows younger players to develop at their own rate.
If the Cubs aren’t going to sign players at the absolute top of the free-agent market, then they’re going to have to get creative. Tucker is the type of player who could put up the 5- or 6-WAR season that catapults an 83-win team into October.
Sharma: Some will say that the Cubs paid too big a price for just one year of Tucker. But not all trades for stars on expiring deals are the same. And making movies like this is the point of building prospect depth. Certainly, the rest of the division won’t be shedding tears about the departure of the prospect Smith, a sign that the Cubs paid up for Tucker. But worrying about what Smith or Wesneski might turn into can’t be their concern. It’s time for the Cubs to win.
The Cubs had little flexibility with their lineup, so a shake-up was necessary and finding an elite bat has been a must for years. Adding Tucker answers one of their biggest pressing questions and changes the tenor around a team that had started to slip into irrelevancy.
What does this signal about the teams’ long-term plans?
Rome: The Astros plan to contend in 2025, a sentiment echoed by both Brown and manager Joe Espada throughout the Winter Meetings. A core of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Hunter Brown, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader — coupled with playing in a putrid division — offers at least some hope that both men are right.
Altuve is signed through 2029. Alvarez, Diaz, Brown and Hader are entrenched through 2028. The concept of a core is there, but Houston will have to add around them for legitimate championship contention. The team could have as much as $48.5 million coming off its books next winter, giving them a clear path to spend in free agency and supplement those players.
Trading Tucker will weaken the 2025 Astros, but injecting both Paredes and Smith into the organization prompts more hope for the seasons that follow. Paredes is under club control for three more seasons while Smith is a 21-year-old prospect who reached Double A last season. Both figure to be integral parts of Houston’s plan to contend beyond 2025.
Mooney: The Cubs are in win-now mode.
If Jed Hoyer’s multiyear rebuild doesn’t result in a playoff run next season, there could be big changes coming. Though the front office is on the hot seat, the organization can also frame this trade as a major organizational victory.
The Cubs went into this offseason with eight players on MLB.com’s rankings of the sport’s top 100 prospects, a group that included Smith. That surplus allowed them to confidently pursue Tucker and finally make the bold move that fans had been waiting for.
Smith’s quick ascent into a headliner prospect – he was the No. 14 pick in this year’s draft – also reflects well on the organization’s initiatives in scouting and player development.
Sharma: Yes, this was a steep price for one year of Tucker, but the Cubs didn’t empty their farm. They still have talent they expect to be a part of the team in 2025 and beyond. Pete Crow-Armstrong has already locked down center field and Michael Busch had a strong season as their full-time first baseman. Kevin Alcántara arrived late last season and the expectation is for Matt Shaw’s debut to come early this year.
That’s just the beginning. Even with the loss of Smith, the Cubs still have among the most top 100 prospects in baseball. Their system is finally in a healthy place. They’re able to use their depth to make smaller moves — like acquiring Nate Pearson before the trade deadline or adding Eli Morgan earlier this offseason — as well as big splashes like bringing in Paredes at the deadline and now flipping him and prospects for Tucker.
Winning in 2025 is a must. But the Cubs didn’t do anything in the Tucker trade to severely compromise their effort to become a consistent winner for years to come.
What’s next for Houston?
Rome: Acquiring Paredes solves one of Houston’s corner infield vacancies — but which one is a mystery. Paredes’ primary position is third base, but last season, Houston had plans to play Paredes at first base while pursuing him at the trade deadline.
That club still had Alex Bregman at third base. Bregman remains a free agent and the Astros are still suitors for his services, but this trade may diminish the viability of a reunion.
Houston has checked in with the St. Louis Cardinals about a possible Nolan Arenado trade, multiple league sources said, but it’s unclear whether Arenado would waive his no-trade clause to join the Astros.
That Houston has even expressed interest in Arenado and the $74 million he is owed suggests it is at least willing to spend substantial money. The club may have no choice given its many needs. Brown has indicated the team needs a leverage reliever and starting pitcher in addition to fixing its infield.
A left-handed hitting outfielder is needed now, too, with Tucker out of the fold.
What’s next for the Cubs?
Mooney: Cody Bellinger has been a regular presence at the team’s Arizona training complex this offseason, wondering if – or when – he will get traded. The Cubs already had coverage at Bellinger’s primary positions in the outfield and at first base, and they wanted to reallocate his salary in other areas. Now that Tucker is coming, a trade of Bellinger appears to be a foregone conclusion.
Sharma: After Bellinger is moved, there will be a continued pursuit of pitching, both relief depth and starters. With Paredes gone, there is a hole at third base. Will the Cubs feel comfortable enough with Shaw’s development to start him there at the beginning of the season? Perhaps they pursue a stopgap option that can buy them some time as Shaw’s advanced bat continues to grow and his defense proves to be at least playable at third, which has always been the question.
(Top photo of Kyle Tucker: Bob Levey / Getty Images)
