LOS ANGELES — Expect a week leading up to Monday night’s wild-card matchup of news conferences downplaying the familiarity between the Los Angeles Rams (10-7) and the Minnesota Vikings (14-3).
Of course the teams themselves will deploy adjusted game plans and strategies after the Rams’ Week 8, 30-20 win on “Thursday Night Football”. Of course, as Rams head coach Sean McVay reiterated Monday morning, while the two offenses share one play caller — Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell was the offensive coordinator for the Rams from 2020-21 including their Super Bowl victory — and some language, the systems have deviated over time to evolve with their personnel.
“He’s done an excellent job of morphing it to his players,” McVay said. “I think that sometimes (similarities between former colleagues’ systems) can get a little bit over-emphasized. There’s a foundational philosophy that I think people carry offensively, but he’s put his own spin on it that works for his team and there’s been a great evolution. You really look at it, I’ve been really impressed with what they’ve done and I enjoy watching their tape.”
After Sunday night’s loss to Seattle that concluded the regular season, McVay minimized the potential helpfulness to the Rams of having already played the Vikings once this season.
“We still played them so early. … There’s just a little bit of familiarity, but they have the same thing with us. So much changes as the season goes,” he said. “You still try to stay abreast of what’s going on relative to what are they doing in the different phases, having your eyes on those possible matchups that could occur.”
Sean McVay’s Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 in Week 8 at SoFi Stadium. (Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
But familiarity quite obviously exists beyond the McVay/O’Connell connection. McVay was obsessive about Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ defense when Flores coached in New England, Miami and now in Minnesota. Flores’ scheme beat McVay in Super Bowl LIII and was among the catalysts in an eventual trade for veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford in 2021. Wes Phillips is now Minnesota’s offensive coordinator after his tenure as the Rams’ tight ends coach from 2019-21, and former offensive assistant Chris O’Hara holds a similar role there too. Assistant inside linebackers coach Thad Bogardus’ contract was not renewed by McVay after the 2022 season, and O’Connell poached former Rams sports science head Tyler Williams from Los Angeles when he accepted the head coaching job early in 2022. Former Rams players Johnny Mundt and Cam Akers are now in Minnesota.
“I think that stuff gets a little bit over-emphasized,” McVay said Monday morning of game planning against his former OC. “Kevin’s a great coach and there’s a familiarity with the rhythm and the routines in terms of how we all operate. There is an evolution and there are adaptions that occur from season to season and week to week. It’s a fun narrative, but it’s really about the Rams versus the Vikings.”
A few notes and bits of analysis ahead of the matchup …
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Who is back (Rams): Rob Havenstein.
McVay said Monday morning that the veteran right tackle, who has missed two games with a shoulder injury, will be back for Monday night’s game.
Who is back (Vikings): Blake Cashman, Fabian Moreau.
O’Connell told Minnesota reporters that the veteran cornerback Moreau, who held a rotational and special teams role, would return from a hip injury this week.
The Vikings will also have star linebacker Cashman against the Rams this time (he didn’t play in the regular-season matchup with turf toe) and his presence could affect how they target the middle of the field.
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Who is out (Rams): No. 2 running back Blake Corum fractured his right forearm against the Seahawks on Sunday and will miss the postseason. Corum showed positive flashes in limited reps behind starter Kyren Williams. Ronnie Rivers will be the No. 2 back and if Sunday’s game plan gave any indication, the Rams will probably get emerging rookie receiver Jordan Whittington involved in the run game on sweeps and reverses (plus as a blocker).
To watch (Rams): Playoff teams receive two additional injured reserve return designations if they make the postseason. Two previous starters, safety John Johnson III and inside linebacker Troy Reeder, are currently on IR and by the end of the regular season the Rams were limited in their allotment of return designations. McVay said the team has not yet made a decision on either player. Returning either would mean cutting one or two players and shifting the game-day activation count where the Rams have seen successful snaps by a number of former reserves, including safeties Jaylen McCollough and Kamren Kinchens, and inside linebackers Omar Speights and Jake Hummel.
To watch (Vikings): Quarterback Sam Darnold (technically another connection between the teams although a collegiate one; he played at USC) hobbled around in the later minutes of Sunday night’s game after a player landed on his foot. While he’s not known for pure mobility, he can run and work out of structure. O’Connell said that the team came out “clean.”
Darnold had by far the worst game of his otherwise remarkable season against the Lions, who blitzed him at over a 50 percent rate (and pressured Darnold on nearly 60 percent of his dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats) plus played a ton of man coverage despite being limited in their own personnel. He was 18 of 41 for 166 yards and had the second-worst red zone passer rating of the year by any quarterback with 10-plus attempts there, according to Next Gen Stats.
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Enemy bonding: Red zone.
The Rams have an offensive success rate in the red zone of just 41.5 percent. The Vikings don’t fare much better at 41.9 percent. Both offenses are well under the league average success rate of 47.6 percent and both rank in the bottom quartile in the NFL in this metric.
The Rams and the Vikings rank No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, in red zone defensive success rate.
Vikings offense: 25.41 points per game (No. 9), No. 15 in EPA/play.
Vikings defense: 19.5 points per game (No. 5), No. 3 in EPA/play, turnover margin is 12.
Rams offense: 21.59 points per game (No. 20), No. 13 in EPA/play.
Rams defense: 22.7 points per game (No. 17), No. 27 in EPA/play, turnover margin is 6.
Matchup point: The Rams’ slow starts against the Vikings’ aggressive, shapeshifting defense.
Not counting Week 18, during which most starters sat out, the Rams have failed to score a touchdown in 13 first quarters this season and have been shut out completely in 11 first quarters. They are the second-worst first quarter offense in the NFL this season, edging the Chicago Bears with 1.8 points per first quarter to Chicago’s 1.6. The Vikings average 6.41 points per first quarter (tied for No. 2) and allow just 2.8 (tied for No. 3).
But in Week 8, the Rams got their offense moving relatively quickly. They scored seven first-quarter points and added another seven before halftime (and held the Vikings scoreless in the second quarter).
“The last time we played these guys, they are an unbelievable defense (that deserves a) ton of respect,” McVay said. “We started fast and we executed well. It really comes down to putting the guys in the right spots and all 11 (players) doing what they’re supposed to do.”
The Rams’ offensive line also allowed no sacks against the Vikings and just eight total pressures according to TruMedia, inclusive to skill players picking up pressure, although players noted postgame that Flores’ overall pressure designs for that game were not what they expected to see (players frequently dropped into coverage despite showing a blitz look pre-snap).
(Top photo of Sam Darnold and Kobie Turner: Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
