Russian President Vladimir Putin is having a really bad week.
White House National Security Communications advisor John Kirby confirmed that Russia’s military is losing 1,200 soldiers a day in Ukraine. Failing to win on the battlefield, Putin is now desperately resorting to trying to buy his would-be empire with rubles.
But on Monday, Putin’s motley crew of oligarchs failed him yet again. This time it was in Moldova. Russia allegedly spent $15 million to bribe Moldovan voters against moving toward European Union membership. Moldovans, however, narrowly approved changes to their constitution that commit the country to joining the EU.
The bribery plan was allegedly perpetrated by Ilan Shor, who was “accused of laundering the money and orchestrating the network, despite his political party being banned [in Moldova].” Shor is a Moldovan-Israeli industry mogul.
Nonetheless, Putin’s Russian rubles for votes scheme in Chișinău fell short. Official Moldovan government results indicated a 50.46 percent to 49.54 percent victory for the small nation, which is wedged between Ukraine and Romania.
Mad Vlad did achieve a Pyrrhic victory. Moldovan incumbent President Maia Sandu failed to win an outright majority. She secured just 41 percent of the vote and consequently faces a run-off election on Nov. 3 against Aleksandr Stoianoglo, who received 26 percent of the vote. Stoianoglo is supported by the pro-Russian Party of Socialists.
Sandu accused Russia of committing an “unprecedented assault on democracy” by paying people to vote against the EU referendum. She says she has “clear evidence” that 300,000 votes were bought.
EU spokesperson Peter Stano acknowledged the validity of Sandu’s claim. “This vote took place under unprecedented interference and intimidation by Russia and its proxies, aiming to destabilize the democratic processes in the Republic of Moldova,” he said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the accusation, calling for evidence to support her claims. That evidence was presented shortly thereafter, when a BBC reporter interviewed a woman at a polling station for residents of the breakaway region of Transnistria, who said she was offered 1,000 rubles to vote against the referendum and Sandu.
Sandu is likely to win the November run-off election. In the process, she is exposing Putin’s desperation and growing military weakness.
Yet Putin remains undeterred for now. Up next is Georgia, whose parliamentary election takes place Oct. 26. Enthusiasm is evident in the streets of Tbilisi, where tens of thousands of pro-EU protesters were observed Monday evening.
Holding her own pro-EU rally on Monday before Moldova’s election, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili expressed her solidarity with Sandu. She emphasized their shared goal of European integration, telling the Moldovan President, “Maia, we will join Europe together!”
Standing in her way, however, is Bidzina Ivanishvili, the former prime minister of Georgia and founder of the governing Georgian Dream party. Ivanishvili is a reclusive Georgian oligarch who effectively controls Georgia’s economy. Much of his fortune was made while he was living in Moscow.
Gia Khukhashvili, Ivanishvili’s former chief political adviser, claimed, “He has turned Georgia into a private company, of which he is the 100 percent owner.” Giorgi Gakharia, the former Georgian Dream Prime Minister, asserted, “There is not even one independent institution in this country. All these people are indirectly connected with Ivanishvili.”
As Felix Light noted for Reuters, Ivanishvili has been called “Georgia’s savior. Russia’s stooge. Philanthropist. Oligarch. And more.” Despite initially arguing for Georgian integration with the West, Ivanishvili has been pushing Georgia away from the European Union and Washington ever since Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
By September, the Biden administration had had enough. The White House withdrew an invitation for Irakli Kobakhidze, the current Georgian prime minister, to a reception held by President Joe Biden at the 75th meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. The U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said it was due to Georgia’s “anti-democratic actions, disinformation, and negative rhetoric towards the U.S. and the West.”
The choice facing Georgians is stark. Ivanishvili has argued against opposing Putin in Ukraine. Earlier in April, while addressing pro-Georgian Dream party demonstrators, he accused the West of trying to overthrow the Georgian government.
If that sounds like a familiar Russian argument, it should. Putin has long accused the West of overthrowing the Ukrainian government during the 2014 Maidan Revolution in Ukraine. Indeed, in August 2021, in his lengthy written diatribe inventing a mythical Ukrainian history rooted in Russia, Putin claimed, “Western countries directly interfered in Ukraine’s internal affairs and supported the coup.”
Now, Ivanishvili is essentially parroting Putin. During his April speech, he argued that Georgia must refuse to become the West’s “cannon fodder,” and that it must not militarily create a “second front” against Russia. Notably, Georgia has not imposed any economic sanctions against Moscow, nor has Tbilisi provided Ukraine with military assistance.
In direct contrast, earlier this week, Zourabichvili supported Ukraine’s fight against Putin’s illegal war. “I want to address Volodymyr Zelensky — from here, on your behalf — and tell him that we know that he is fighting for us and will win!” she said. “And we will enter Europe together!”
Nika Gvaramia concurs. He is the opposition leader of the Georgian political party Coalition for Change. While leading a protest in Freedom Square in Tbilisi, Gvaramia told Georgians that, “Our choice is Europe.”
Much, therefore, is at stake for the nation of Georgia, which strategically bridges Europe and Asia. This is arguably the last opportunity for Tbilisi to join the European Union. A loss would likely crush democracy in Georgia. If the Georgian Dream party wins on Saturday, Ivanishvili has vowed to ban all Georgian opposition parties.
Putin has a lot to lose as well. For Russia, a defeat of Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream could lead to Georgia regaining control over its breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. If so, the Russian naval base being constructed at Ochamchire in Abkhazia would be at risk. It is being built to house Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, recently expelled from Crimea.
Putin’s rubles are also desperately at work in North Korea. In addition to buying upwards of 3 million artillery shells a year — or half Moscow’s needs in Ukraine — Putin is finalizing plans with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to use his troops in the Donbas. On Tuesday, Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that North Korean soldiers are expected to arrive in Russia’s Kursk region on Wednesday.
This is yet another sign that all Putin has available to him now to secure his kingdom are rubles and his evergreen nuclear bluffing.
Western freedom isn’t free. Putin is trying to buy it with rubles that are rapidly losing their value. The West must resolve to defeat him with dollars and Euros in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia — and if necessary, with military might.
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.
