What a weekend. Today, I’m highlighting a pivotal — but underappreciated — moment from each game, the latest from the coaching carousel and a brief note on tonight’s college football finale.
Stat to know: In this round, the four teams that outgained their opponents lost. Those that won the turnover battle? 4-0. It’s that time of year. Let’s dive in.
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Divisional Round Recap: Four critical, unsung moments
Football games often come down to a single play. This weekend, we saw many make-or-break moments.
But whether a game finishes dramatically or not, there are always preceding plays that prove to have been nearly as decisive.
Let’s look at four of those, one from each of this playoff round’s games. These plays ended up explaining a lot about these entire contests. Starting with Saturday:
Chiefs 23, Texans 14
When it felt over. For this list, I was tempted to include one of Houston’s several special teams blunders, this TD pass by Mahomes or a questionable penalty call. But one aggressive decision stood out, as any Texans comeback felt unlikely after this play.
With 10:05 remaining in the game, they faced a fourth-and-10 at the Chiefs’ 40. Trailing 20-12, they decided to go for it.
Rushing to the line of scrimmage after a late exit from the huddle (with five seconds on the play clock), this attempt marked the beginning of the end. C.J. Stroud barely got the snap off, and it would’ve been better if he hadn’t:
That sack was one of five he took in the fourth quarter alone, and one of three on Saturday by 23-year-old DE George Karlaftis — a first round pick in Kansas City’s stellar 2022 draft class who now has seven sacks in eight career playoff games.
After this fourth-down stop, Houston’s only score came on an intentional safety.
What’s next:
Commanders 45, Lions 31
When Jayden Daniels felt unstoppable. Plenty of ink is rightfully being devoted to the No. 1 Lions’ many mistakes from Saturday night, including their five turnovers or that inexcusable too-many-men penalty while trailing 31-28.
But the play that made me realize Washington could pull it off occurred about two minutes prior to halftime, with the Commanders near midfield and ahead by three.
You rarely beat a quarterback who’s making throws like that, especially if your defensive depth chart looks like this:
This is where the Lions are at right now on defense pic.twitter.com/eENFHBc3qN
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 19, 2025
Jayden Daniels finished 22 of 31 for 299 yards and two TDs, continuing a dream rookie season that drew a Magic Johnson comparison from Mike Sando.
What’s next?
- For Washington, a road game in Philly, which the Commanders opened as five-point underdogs without starting RG Sam Cosmi (ACL). Daniels will be the fifth rookie QB to start a conference championship game in NFL history. He’s hoping to become the first to win it.
- As for the brokenhearted Lions, they could lose both coordinators, plus multiple players to free agency. Change is unavoidable. We’ll cover that in detail tomorrow.
Now, Dianna has the latest on how this game changed the carousel, and then we’ll finish our recap:
What Dianna’s Hearing: Ben Johnson derby heats up
The Lions’ loss caught a lot of people around the league off-guard, and it’s speeding up the head-coach hiring process. From what I’ve heard, over the next 24 hours, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is expected to lock in his schedule for in-person meetings.
So far, three teams — the Raiders, Bears, and Jaguars — have shown strong interest in him. That said, it’s possible Johnson won’t meet with all three, as he’s still figuring out his next steps. The Raiders, led by Tom Brady, are making a strong push to bring him in.
Meanwhile, things are wrapping up elsewhere, too. The Saints have some big in-person interviews lined up this week; they’ll meet with Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver and Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka. And the Jets look like they’re on track to hire a new general manager this week.
Eagles 28, Rams 22
When a bouncing punt came back to haunt them. Philadelphia’s primary engines — Saquon Barkley and the league’s top defense, led by Jalen Carter, Zach Baun and Darius Slay — were strengths once again, with Barkley posting 205 rushing yards while Vic Fangio’s unit forced two fumbles in Rams territory.
The Eagles’ passing game continued to struggle, though it felt unnecessary anyway, once Barkley’s 78-yard touchdown run put them up 28-15 with 4:36 left in the fourth quarter. The game felt over.
But then Matthew Stafford marched the Rams to a score with a 70-yard drive taking just 1:48 off the clock, and the Eagles punted only 25 seconds later, thanks to three stops by L.A. (and three timeouts). Here’s the punt:
Whether or not you agree with the returner’s decision to avoid it (after all, it was cold, snowing and wet), he sacrificed 14 yards by failing to make a fair catch, which forced Stafford to start at his own 18.
“You have to make that catch,” emphasized Cris Collinsworth on the broadcast, though it wasn’t immediately apparent how critical those 14 yards would be. And again, it would have been risky.
Stafford quickly worked the Rams down the field, helped by Puka Nacua’s miracle shoulder catch, but it was not enough. About a minute later, on a second-and-7 from the Eagles 18, Kevin Dotson was flagged for a costly false start. The Rams then moved the ball to the Eagles 13-yard line, but Jalen Carter came up big.
THE BIG DAWG IS HUNGRY!
JALEN CARTER SACK 😤#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/xReEEiux7Y— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 19, 2025
They’d needed those 14 yards. Ouch.
What’s next:
- The Eagles advance to the NFC Championship for the second time in the last three seasons.
- When asked if he has more football left in him, Stafford replied: “Sure feels like it.” Jourdan Rodrigue has a beautiful tribute to the Rams’ improbable postseason run.
Bills 27, Ravens 25
When Damar Hamlin made key plays, twice. Of course, the Mark Andrews drop sealed the Ravens’ fate, and the game was very much in the balance until that point. But there was so much more to it.
Buffalo ran for 147 yards — the most allowed all season by the league’s top-ranked run defense — while Josh Allen passed for 127, his season low.
Then there was Buffalo’s defense, which welcomed back several starters, forced three turnovers and brought the pressure, blitzing on a season-high 48 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks. Risky, considering the Ravens entered the game leading the NFL in nearly every explosive-play category.
Derrick Henry nearly added to that tally late in the third quarter. It looked like his typical breakaway run, until …
… he was tripped up by safety Damar Hamlin, the comeback hero who had a mixed performance overall, but was also critical on Lamar Jackson’s earlier fumble.
Henry eventually scored on that drive, but Hamlin’s tackle cost Henry a massive touchdown run and Baltimore a few minutes of clock. After Henry’s score, TE Isaiah Likely was open on the two-point conversion but Bills star LB Matt Milano tipped the pass and it fell incomplete. That was one of the most important plays of the game.
.@Ravens @BuffaloBills Matt Milano with this tipped pass to break up the first 2 point try. Could have made it 21-21 easily if not for MM. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/98Q71msEbK
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 20, 2025
For the remainder of the game, the Bills settled for two field goals while the Ravens again ran the ball less than they should’ve. Despite averaging 5.3 yards yesterday, Henry got just 16 carries. On their final drive, which began with 3:29 to go, he didn’t touch the football.
What’s next?
- The Bills return to familiar Arrowhead as 2-point underdogs. “We wouldn’t want it no other way,” said CB Cam Lewis, one of 13 players remaining from 2020’s 38-24 AFC Championship loss to Kansas City. This year is different, Joe Buscaglia writes.
- As for Baltimore, Andrews’ drop “kept the overstated narrative surrounding Jackson’s postseason deficiencies alive for at least another year,” writes Michael Silver, who suggests we instead appreciate Jackson’s brilliance. We’ll have more on Baltimore tomorrow too.
Tonight: More Football!
Even if you’re the NFL-only type of football fan, you’ll want to tune into tonight’s College Football Playoff final between Ohio State and Notre Dame at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Two NFL-specific reasons:
- Draft expert Dane Brugler projects 16 Buckeyes to be drafted this year, including seven in the first two rounds.
- While the underdog Fighting Irish have about half as many pro prospects, head coach Marcus Freeman has garnered NFL interest at age 39. Just don’t expect him to jump to Chicago anytime soon.
Enjoy the game!
And finally: Robert Mays and Derrick Klassen catch you up on everything else NFL playoffs in “The Athletic Football Show,” which you can listen to here.
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(Photo: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
