By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
The last two seasons have been nothing but pain for Pittsburgh Penguins fans who have grown accustomed to some semblance of success over the past two decades.
The Crosby-Malkin-Letang era has long been a fruitful one in which the playoffs always felt like a given. They’ve now reached a point where it’s a dogfight just to get in.
This season doesn’t expect to be any different for Pittsburgh except for one crucial change: For the first time since Sidney Crosby’s rookie season, the Penguins are on the wrong side of the playoff cut line.
The projection
In every season of this model’s existence, the Penguins have been a heavy favorite to make the playoffs. That’s partly what made the last two seasons so disappointing — Pittsburgh was supposed to be a safe bet. In 2022-23 that meant an 81 percent chance, and last season they were still at 64 percent.
Instead, they sat just outside the picture both times. Both times, the call was coming from inside the house.
That — and trading away Jake Guentzel — has the Penguins in unfamiliar waters outside the playoff picture. That shouldn’t be a surprise given that’s exactly where they landed the last two seasons; the 89-point projection is right in line with what the Penguins have been for two seasons. What might be a surprise is that Pittsburgh is still kicking it at around 90 points.
While Pittsburgh’s competitive window is basically slammed shut, its playoff window remains open just enough to make things interesting. The East is competitive, but the teams in the middle have enough flaws for the Penguins to still have a real shot.
We’ll see what they can do this time without any expectations hanging over their heads.
The big question
Does the aging core have enough gas left in the tank to contend?
The fact Pittsburgh is projected to earn 90 points is already a testament to what Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang still bring on a night-to-night basis. Let’s hold off on the big question for a minute and focus on a few smaller ones. Are they old? You bet. Were they good (or great) last season? Indeed. Are they likely to be good again in 2024-25? Another yes.
Good enough, in fact, to still slot in as above-average players relative to their spots in the lineup. Crosby still projects to be a high-end first-line center. Same for Malkin, if you’re grading him against second-line centers. Karlsson and Letang, as No. 1 and No. 2 defenders, bring surplus value as well. There’s nothing wrong with having those guys as your best skaters. There never has been.
To that end, it’d be foolish, especially in Crosby’s case, to assume a major drop-off is imminent. We’ve barely seen minimal drop-off. He’s not the defensive player he was — the one facet of his game that suggests he is, in fact, 37 years old — but he still brings more than enough to the table in terms of play-driving and production to offset that fact. A projected Net Ranking of plus-15 accounts for some age-related decline, but not much; he put up a plus-17 in 2023-24 and still belongs on any list of the 10 or 15 best players in the game. He’s not a legacy act; he’s a decent dark horse MVP candidate in a league that’ll soon have players who were born during his rookie season.
Malkin, meanwhile, is more than productive enough at five-on-five to cover for some age-related limitations; he scored 2.18 points 60 last season, same as Ottawa’s Tim Stützle, while carrying a $6.1 million cap hit. It was Letang who led Pittsburgh’s defensemen in five-on-five points per 60 last season, finishing between Noah Dobson and Thomas Harley league-wide. Karlsson, dip in production aside, still had immensely positive effects as a puck-mover, generating shot and chance assists better than virtually any defensemen in the league.
The answer to the big question, though, has to be “no.” Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson can be individually great, and in a different situation, they could certainly contend for a Cup, or at least come closer than they’re likely to in 2024-25. No argument there. The existential issue for Pittsburgh, though, is that the old guys aren’t just the best players on the roster — they’re perilously close to being the only good ones. They combine for a plus-37 Net Rating. Overall (as in, including them), the Penguins are at a minus-2, a year-over-year 19-point decline. That’s easy, ugly math. Drilling it down a bit more, there are three Penguins other than the four Hall of Famers projected at a positive Net Rating: Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting and Marcus Pettersson. That’s simply not enough to win meaningful games. Not right now, at least.
In plenty of regards, this was an inevitability — the combined cost of the live-in-the-moment disregard of the Jim Rutherford regime and the role-player drain under Ron Hextall. Kyle Dubas’ first big-ticket UFA signing, defenseman Ryan Graves, is perilously close to bust territory, but Dubas deserves credit for coming out of this summer with a prime future piece in Rutger McGroarty and a decent selection of lottery tickets along the bottom six. After another year of similar work, who knows? In the meantime, if they sneak into the postseason with plus goaltending and a functioning power play … stranger things have happened.
What’s more likely, though, is that Crosby and the rest of Pittsburgh’s ’80s babies make the roster too good to be bad — and that the roster, top to bottom, is too flawed to be great. There might be enough gas in the tank, but cars don’t run on gas alone.
The wild card
Can the Penguins count on an improved power play?
There’s a simple enough answer to this one: yes. The Penguins can count on an improved power play this season because they almost literally can not get any worse. Pittsburgh produced 5.47 goals per 60 with the man advantage last season. That wasn’t just 30th in the league in 2023-24 — it was 443rd out of 520, dating back to the 2007-08 season, and the worst on record for the franchise. It’s difficult for any team to score that little, let alone a team with a still-solid talent level like the Penguins.
Outside of that, it needs to be said that Pittsburgh’s power play didn’t do a bad job at generating looks. On the contrary, their 9.88 expected goals per 60 was No. 7 in the NHL last season and 13th out of that same 520-team, 16-season sample.
That’s not to hand-wave the Penguins’ obvious deficiency in the space. Finishing is a skill, and they didn’t bring enough of it. Ultimately, the same team that missed the playoffs by three points also had 37 power-play opportunities — nearly three weeks’ worth of games, during which they went 4-6-3 — without scoring a single goal. It’s not hyperbolic to say those issues cost them their season.
New assistant David Quinn, fired as head of the San Jose Sharks after last season, joined the staff in part to oversee the unit. His first task, you’d imagine, would be to get Karlsson on the same page with Malkin and Crosby. Last season, that never seemed to be the case; Karlsson, skilled as he is at navigating the top of the zone, is a whole lot more puck-dominant than Letang, the guy he replaced. Pittsburgh’s hopes may well hinge on those issues being growing pains and not permanent incompatibility.
The strengths
Everything in Pittsburgh revolves around Crosby. With his contract situation resolved — at a perfectly poetic $8.7 million AAV — the captain doesn’t have to worry about any personal distractions. The focus can be winning at least one more Cup sometime in the next three years.
Crosby has done his part to keep the Penguins relevant. He didn’t just have one of the best 35-plus seasons last year; he legitimately was one of the most valuable players in the league. Crosby probably would have gotten more hype in the Hart Trophy race if the field wasn’t so deep.
For the 19th straight season, Crosby was over a point-per-game pace with 42 goals and 94 points in 82 games. That’s even more impressive considering all the power-play points left on the table last season. He is a dominant player at five-on-five who drives play no matter who is around him. It’s no surprise he leads this team with a plus-17 Offensive Rating.
Crosby held his placement in this year’s Player Tiers and still earned praise from the insider panel around the league.
“If I was playing a game or a playoff series tomorrow, I would probably still have Sid in that top group,” one executive said. “Maybe two or three months into this season, I’ll be like, “OK, I’m seeing (some decline). But pretty much all year, Sid was still top-notch.”
This season will be a test for Crosby, considering the Penguins’ left-wing depth. But on his right will likely be Rust, who has kept up and complemented the team’s franchise cornerstone.
Rust may not be the driver of his line, but he sees the ice well and complements the elite talent around him. The speedy winger does a lot of the little things right and has the finishing talent to make an impact on the scoresheet. With Player Tiers now expanded to the top 150, Rust finally made the cut after just missing in years past.
Malkin and Rickard Rakell form another solid duo below Crosby and Rust. Like Crosby, Malkin hasn’t followed traditional age curves. While his levels have declined in recent years, he’s still a very capable second-line center.
Post-trade deadline, the Penguins got a good look at what their 2024-25 second line would look like. Bunting slotted alongside Malkin and Rakell for a little under 200 minutes of five-on-five play and put up strong numbers. Pittsburgh controlled play with almost 58 percent of the expected goal share and outscored opponents 15-9.
Now Pittsburgh just needs its depth to step up to support that top six.
McGroarty, if he makes the team, could bring a youth infusion this roster craves and maybe some lineup versatility. He could become one of the most cost-effective players on this roster (other than Crosby, of course) if he can make an instant impact while on an entry-level contract. Blake Lizotte brings some pesky skill to the fourth line and should pair well defensively with Noel Acciari. Lizotte can win puck battles and forecheck hard, making the Penguins a tougher team to play against when their stars aren’t on the ice. In Lars Eller, Pittsburgh gains more defensive upside, albeit in a higher role than he deserves. That speaks to the importance of McGroarty being NHL-ready from the get-go. His presence slides Hayes to 3C and Eller down to 4C where the latter is much better suited.
Between Crosby, Malkin, Eller and Lizotte, the Penguins project to have the 11th-best center depth in the league. The only position that ranks higher is right defense, which is third, thanks to Karlsson and Letang.
Only four defensemen project to have a higher Offensive Rating than Karlsson’s plus-16: Evan Bouchard, Roman Josi, Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes.
Karlsson may not have been able to replicate his incredible scoring heights from 2022-23, but his puck-moving was still standout. It was the brightest spot in a somewhat disappointing first year in Pittsburgh, but the blame doesn’t fall squarely on him. A new voice running the power play should help him rebound, though.
There are more question marks around Letang because the addition of Karlsson does take prime minutes away from him. But he’s shown he can still play tough minutes at the top of this lineup. If he can pick up the pace on the scoresheet and his mainstay partner can rebound, the Penguins should be in luck.
Graves didn’t come close to matching expectations in Year 1 in Pittsburgh, but he was also somewhat underrated defensively. In tough minutes, the Penguins allowed just 1.99 goals against per 60 and 2.68 expected goals against per 6o with Graves on the ice — both of which led the team. He may have been a disaster with the puck, but he did his part without it. If Graves can play closer to his 2022-23 levels in New Jersey, the top four should be a real strength this season. At the very least, he’s a plus on the third pair.
The weaknesses
One of the biggest weaknesses is the glaring hole left by the Guentzel trade. Crosby has shown he can make a lot out of a little in years past, and Bunting has fit fine enough in Pittsburgh, but it still doesn’t make up for the fact this team is down a game-breaking winger.
Guentzel led the Penguins in shot volume and expected goal creation last season. His play in transition, dangerous passing and forechecking added dimension to his game and made him more of an all-around threat. Forty-goal scorers like Guentzel don’t grow on trees, and the Penguins lost a lot more than that. His absence is what puts this team below the playoff cut line and there isn’t a true replacement on this roster. O’Connor looks to have the inside track on that job and will likely be way out of his depths on the first line. Neither Hayes nor Beauvillier stack up well and McGroarty brings uncertainty with no NHL experience.
As much offense as a Guentzel-less core in Pittsburgh may be able to create, it doesn’t outweigh their collective weaknesses on the other end of the ice. The Penguins have a minus-13 Defensive Rating that ranks 25th in the league. That isn’t exactly ideal for a playoff hopeful.
It starts with the star players; Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Bunting, Karlsson and Letang add up to a minus-12 Defensive Rating. There are playoff teams with core players who also give some back without the puck, but there aren’t many who do so to this degree. While some of the supporting cast can try to counteract that — like Lizotte, Eller and Noel Acciari up front, and Pettersson and Graves on the back end — there are depth players who also contribute to the team’s weaknesses.
The Penguins’ projected third line drags down the team’s Defensive Rating and isn’t expected to bring much offensively either to make up for it.
Kevin Hayes is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, his scoring rate dropping down to 1.52 points per 60. It wasn’t just a matter of bad puck luck, either. He didn’t make much of an impact offensively at five-on-five below the surface.
It’s possible St. Louis was just a bad fit, and a return to the Eastern Conference will agree with him. The problem is his 2023-24 wasn’t the only down year of his career. The truth is he hasn’t been able to replicate his two-way success from his career year back in 2018-19 in New York. Now he has to show he has something left in the tank on a team with playoff aspirations.
And he isn’t the only player with something to prove.
Cody Glass hasn’t lived up to his draft pedigree since the Vegas Golden Knights drafted him at No. 6 back in 2017. There have been some glimpses of his skill over the years, both in Vegas and Nashville, but nothing consistent enough to keep him as a top-nine fixture. On the back end, Matt Grzelcyk and Sebastian Aho don’t do much to thread the needle on either end of the ice and look like a typical third pair.
That likely makes life harder on the goaltending, which is unreliable enough as is.
Tristan Jarry has been in decline for a few seasons and the model has its doubts about his starter upside considering his last five years of play. Last year he ranked 24th in goals saved above expected, a step up from the year prior, but his season was still mired in inconsistency. While he’s proven he can be just above average in the regular season, Jarry can’t always be counted on to play a full regular season. His durability and streakiness make him a wild card, as does the fact he’s wilted in his little playoff experience to this point. The Penguins have big aspirations around their aging core, and Jarry just doesn’t seem like he can be the backbone they need for a deep run.
Jarry’s injury history puts more emphasis on the need for a reliable backup. Alex Nedeljkovic has proven he isn’t that. While he has experience playing more than the average backup in years past, the quality of play hasn’t always matched his workload. He is now three full seasons removed from an impressive run with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2020-21 that just seems like an aberration at this point.
Unless something changes this year, the Penguins may need to reassess their goaltending situation if they want to win another Stanley Cup in the Crosby era. The only way out may be via trade, with Jarry locked up for another four years and Nedeljkovic on the books for two.
The best case
Pittsburgh’s power play bounces back with a vengeance, Jarry shows he still has starter-worthy chops and there’s enough juice at the top for one final dance past the first round.
The worst case
Everything that went wrong last year continues to linger, leading to another uneven season in which the Penguins don’t win enough to make the playoffs and don’t lose enough to kickstart the next era.
The bottom line
Crosby and his counterparts, for now, have largely stayed ahead of the aging curve. Bet against him at your own peril. Still, expecting a return to the playoffs by an old team with a flawed supporting cast in a conference with several up-and-coming teams would be unfair.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Photo of Sidney Crosby: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
