Pete Alonso, Trent Grisham and more players to consider selling high in fantasy baseball

Through some combination of luck and cunning, you have rostered an unexpected star. You snapped up Trent Grisham. You were the first to Ben Rice. You didn’t scroll past Cedric Mullins.

Now what? Ride it out or look to sell? Let’s look at some of the top early-season performers with an eye toward who is doing something sustainable and who you should look to sell.

A quick, non-statistical note on the buy-high concept: trades are always manager and league-specific. In my experience, most managers won’t give you much for a player who has a long track record of so-so production, even if they had a great April. Put another way, how much would you trade for Zach McKinstry and his .326 average?

With that in mind, let’s look for some sell-high targets among the top-qualified hitters this year by wOBA.

Yes, Carson Kelly, the Cubs’ half-time catcher with a career 91 wRC+, has been the best hitter in baseball this year by wOBA. Yes, you should sell him if anyone offers you something moderately interesting.

As for the other guy who has outhit Aaron Judge, Jorge Polanco changed his swing (Davy Andrews at Fangraphs did a great deep dive on that), and now he’s playing out of his mind. Even his expected stats back up his performance. No, he’s not going to keep this up, but Polanco is a good hitter, and his new, shorter swing is helping him make the most of his abilities. So is the fact that he is only playing against righties (making him more valuable in daily leagues than weekly ones). He’s something like a better version of Kerry Carpenter — solid average and good power with limited patience and no steals. That’s a good player! If someone wants to pay you like he’s Teoscar Hernandez or Brent Rooker, that’s worth jumping on, as are offers that are a shade less than that. The cold streaks will come, so now is a good time to see what you can get, but Polanco can hit, so there’s no shame in hanging on.

It’s a similar story for the no-longer-underrated Pavin Smith. The production against righties is legit, he doesn’t play against lefties, and if someone wants to pay for something close to this version of him, then go for it. A .488 BABIP is propping him up, so the fall is going to be steeper than Polanco’s.

What about Judge? Should you see what you can get for the guy putting up numbers approaching Barry Bonds’ third- or fourth-best season? Maybe, but only because it’s hard to get precise about the value of a player this legitimately monstrous. The power isn’t going anywhere, but the average will be more like a measly .310-.320 than the .400+ figure he’s running now — even Judge can’t maintain a near .500 BABIP. So, if someone wants to give you, say, Bobby Witt Jr. and Tarik Skubal, you should probably do that, but the price should be appropriately insane.

While we’re on New York sluggers, Pete Alonso has earned his ridiculous start — he’s actually underperformed his .700 xSLG. He’s been better at laying off pitches low and away this year, and his K, BB, and barrel rates all back up what he’s doing. Still, this is peak “Polar Bear,” and if someone wants to pay like he’s a top-10 player, go for it. He has simply never been close to this over a full season, and regression will come eventually.

Wyatt Langford has probably been a little bit lucky so far, but this is basically who he is. Everyone has a price, but this isn’t a sell-high. He’s a legit five-category star. Ditto for Corbin Carroll and Fernando Tatis Jr., who are still just 24 and 26, respectively.

Trent Grisham, on the other hand, is worth offering around to your league’s Yankees fans. He has turned his focus a little lower in the zone, looking to pull everything he can over the short porch in right field. It’s been working, to the tune of an HR/FB rate over 30%. The K% is down significantly, and his average is up about .100 points. He has mostly earned this, but he will cool off, and pitchers will find successful approaches. The fact that this is not all luck means you might actually be able to get something decent for him.

Ben Rice is an amalgam of Polanco and Grisham — a Yankee who is crushing righties and running a 35% HR/FB, and backing up the performance with his expected stats. To put that figure in context, Judge had the highest HR/FB rate last year at 32.2%, and Shohei Ohtani was second at 28%. The fact Rice is 26 makes this feel like a potential breakout — not just a hot streak — as does the fact he spent much of the past two years obliterating the minor leagues. That said, he’s doing all of this on fastballs against righties, and it’s a safe bet he’ll come down a notch or two as fewer flies leave the yard. He’s good, but he’s also good bait.

A few notes on players not listed above:

Byron Buxton is fun, but he whiffs a lot and can’t stay healthy. Now is a good time to try to cash him in for someone more reliable.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has tools coming out of his ears, and he could lead the league in steals. He doesn’t have a great sense of the zone, but he can patch over that to some degree with his contact skills. It’s unlikely he can keep up this level of power, so if someone makes an offer that puts him close to Elly De La Cruz or Corbin Carroll value, then go for it as long as you can give up the steals.

The top three wOBA overperformers (by xwOBA) are Kameron Misner, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Andy Pages (followed by Carson Kelly and Pavin Smith). Misner has cooled off recently and is probably just a deep-league guy at this point. Fitzgerald is doing it with a combination of luck and speed, and he remains a sneaky source of steals. I wouldn’t quite believe it, except he did the same thing last year. Pages is the one who is legitimately good enough to potentially get another manager to pay for the hot streak.

(Top photo of Pete Alonso: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)