Patriots’ failed Brandon Aiyuk pursuit highlights difficulties of NFL rebuild

FOXBORO, Mass. — In late March, on a deck overlooking the water at a five-star hotel, New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft stood in front of reporters and tried to explain how his team had failed to land wide receiver Calvin Ridley, its top free agent target.

The season before, the Patriots had whiffed on receiver DeAndre Hopkins, too, but that was different. That was Bill Belichick. This was a new regime with a new vision, one centered on “weaponizing” the offense. What that meant was landing a No. 1 wide receiver to pair with a rookie quarterback, who became No. 3 pick Drake Maye. That plan — spending big on a receiver while your quarterback is on a low-cost, rookie contract — has brought success elsewhere, and New England wanted to copy it.

But like Hopkins before him, Ridley chose Tennessee, even if the Patriots were willing to offer more money. Kraft explained that Ridley’s home situation made him inclined to stay in the South. But he added another caveat.

“And part of it might be the quarterback situation as well,” Kraft said.

Drake Maye’s progress and development is so important for so many reasons.

But among them: the Patriots need him to show signs of being The Guy so they can sell receivers on that next offseason. Until then, top WRs keep saying no to New England.

— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) August 7, 2024

Months later, the Patriots have seemingly missed out on another top receiving target. According to ESPN, they’ve given up their quest for Brandon Aiyuk, a top-10 player at his position who is still only 26 years old. The Pats tried to land Aiyuk during the draft in April, but the 49ers weren’t willing to deal him. They re-engaged in trade talks this month during Aiyuk’s “hold-in” at 49ers training camp, and New England was arguably the most aggressive and motivated team in trying to land him. The Patriots were willing to pay Aiyuk as a top-five receiver in the NFL, according to a team source, which would result in him making at least $30 million per season.

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But it doesn’t seem the interest was mutual. While the Patriots had the framework of a trade with the 49ers in place, Aiyuk wasn’t interested in coming to New England, according to NBC Sports Bay Area.

And now we’ve arrived at a brutal reality for the Patriots, who have been dealt yet another blow by yet another top receiver target. Like Hopkins and Ridley, Aiyuk didn’t want to come and be a part of this rebuild with an uncertain quarterback situation.

That’s why so much is riding on Maye’s shoulders this season. Already, the year was going to be defined by the progress he does or doesn’t show. But the Aiyuk situation is a reminder that this rebuild might take some time. It also will depend on how willing top-end players are to come to New England — because right now they’re not.

Fortunately for the Pats, that can change quickly in the NFL. The Houston Texans weren’t a destination team a year ago. Then C.J. Stroud broke out and shined as a rookie quarterback. Now, they’re one of the winners of this offseason, luring star players, loading up their roster and kicking off what they hope becomes a Super Bowl chase.

But it goes beyond just the quarterback. Top-down organizational competence matters, too.

Aiyuk is reportedly interested in playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s not like they boast absolute certainty at quarterback right now, stuck deciding between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. But there’s an appeal to playing for coach Mike Tomlin, who finished first in last year’s poll when players were asked which coach — besides their own — they’d most want to play for.

There’s a chance Jerod Mayo can become that kind of coach. There’s optimism about what he’ll bring to the organization internally and in the region. But he hasn’t coached a game yet, and that cheery outlook isn’t yet shared league-wide.

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So until a franchise has a coach and quarterback that offer some level of certainty — in what the scheme will look like, what the results will be, the level of quarterback play — it likely will be difficult to land top players.

And make no mistake, it’s hard to have an explosive offense without a No. 1 wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are anomalies there in that they’re good enough not to need a great receiver. That’s how the Patriots got away with not having a great No. 1 receiver for so many years. (One alarming stat I discovered in my research on Aiyuk? His total of 1,342 receiving yards last season, which ranked seventh in the NFL, hasn’t been matched in New England since Wes Welker more than a decade ago.)

So where do the Patriots go from here? Realistically, their hopes of landing a No. 1 receiver are probably on ice until next offseason when they’ll begin inquiring about trades and trying to woo free agents like Tee Higgins, hopeful for a different result.

But what happens this fall will probably go a long way in determining how successful they are with that. If Mayo leads this team and can be someone guys want to play for (even if they don’t have a winning record), that would be a step in the right direction.

The other aspect, of course, is the quarterback. High-end wide receivers don’t typically want to go to a team without a clear No. 1 QB throwing them the ball. So much of the job of luring top talent is on Maye’s shoulders now.

As Kraft said several months ago when surmising why Ridley didn’t choose New England, “part of it might be the quarterback situation as well.”