The 2024 offseason has proven to be a cascade of headlines for Edmonton Oilers fans to experience.
This year’s roster and front-office turnover eclipses even the borderline unbelievable 2006 postseason, when Chris Pronger requested (and was granted) a trade from the team. That deal was completed just 14 days after the Oilers lost Game 7 to the Carolina Hurricanes.
Beginning summer 2023, CEO Jeff Jackson was so active in his first calendar year with the team that fans welcomed a quiet August.
It has been anything but quiet in August.
In the last month, the team has hired a new general manager (Stan Bowman), made progress on the Leon Draisaitl contract negotiations and got sideswiped last week by a dual offer sheet from the St. Louis Blues. That was followed by two (rare) August trades.
On Tuesday, the Oilers indicated both offer sheets (Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway) would not be matched. In a release by the Blues, the full details of the transaction (including Edmonton’s acquisition of St Louis’ 2028 third-round draft pick and unsigned 2023 fifth-round draft selection Paul Fischer to Edmonton for future considerations) were made public.
Fans got an early indication the organization was heading that way when the club made the weekend deals for defenceman Ty Emberson and forward Vasily Podkolzin.
The reasoning behind the moves is obvious. Once the Blues delivered the offer sheets to Broberg and Holloway, the primary value of those players — quality value for low cost against the cap — dissolved in an instant.
After that, the next logical step was to evaluate the cost of matching and to decide if that cost was worth it.
Oilers fans got their answer today.
In checking down from Broberg and Holloway to Emberson and Podkolzin, how much of a gap did the team create?
The salary-cap benefit
The template for Edmonton’s roster in 2024-25 had Broberg and Holloway coming in at a little more than $1 million each against the salary cap.
When Broberg ($4.58 million AAV on a two-year deal) and Holloway ($2.29 million AAV, also two years) signed with St. Louis, Jackson and Bowman were forced to make tough decisions.
The result was a trade of veteran defender Cody Ceci to the San Jose Sharks in order to lower cap, and the acquisition of two men who can be replacements for the players heading to St. Louis.
The Oilers’ savings in making these moves is significant. For the first time in the Connor McDavid era, management will have room to wheel at the 2025 trade deadline (should they choose to stop making news by acquiring players until then) unencumbered by salary-cap worries.
The gap in talent (Emberson-Broberg)
Emberson is a promising young defenceman with very little (30 games) NHL experience. He is 24, 6-foot-2 and 193 pounds. In his draft year, Red Line Report called him “a tremendous four-way skater” who can “get back to retrieve quickly and make a strong pass.”
His brief NHL career boasts some encouraging numbers compared to other Sharks defencemen in 2023-24.
Using Natural Stat Trick’s line tool, we can see the impact of Emberson on the ice at five-on-five and Emberson off the ice in the game state.
| Category | Emberson On | Emberson Off |
|---|---|---|
|
Shot Pct |
46.2 |
42.4 |
|
Goal Pct |
44.4 |
33.3 |
|
X-Goal Pct |
43.3 |
41.6 |
All numbers five-on-five
This is a small sample (499 minutes) for Emberson, but the indicators are positive.
Puck IQ has more good news. Against elite competition, Emberson’s Dangerous Fenwick (equivalent to expected goals) is 46.8 percent versus elite talent, 10.6 percent superior relative to his Sharks defensive teammates.
Emberson can be described accurately as a less established, RH version of Broberg.
The small sample size for Emberson (and Broberg) precludes anyone from saying one player is, in fact, a better future bet than the other. We can say, based on talent and cap hit for 2024-25 ($950,000), that Emberson is a better fit for Edmonton and that he is in the talent range of Broberg (without the draft pedigree).
The gap in talent (Podkolzin-Holloway)
A more direct comparison can be made between the two forwards involved in transactions this week.
Holloway is a fleet winger with some two-way acumen and a player who hasn’t been able to deliver the kind of offence a team hopes to see from a No. 14 draft pick (2020).
Podkolzin was chosen a year earlier (2019) and a few spots higher (No. 10) but the rest of the Holloway profile fits like a glove.
The biggest difference comes in the fact Podkolzin was deemed expendable by the Canucks, whereas the Oilers changed their tune on Holloway only after the spike in cap made him a less valuable asset.
Here’s the tale of the tape on both players over the last three seasons combined.
| Category | Podkolzin | Holloway |
|---|---|---|
|
Games |
137 |
89 |
|
Goals-60 |
0.61 |
0.55 |
|
Points-60 |
1.22 |
1.17 |
|
TOI-game |
11:28 |
9:46 |
|
Shots-60 |
6.42 |
6.28 |
|
Shooting Pct |
9.52 |
8.79 |
|
Goal Pct |
50.9 |
49.2 |
|
X-Goal Pct |
48.3 |
54.5 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The benefit of a three-year look is we get to see a large sample of play. In the case of both men, there are some things to like and a worry over offensive ability.
Holloway is the better player today, and his most recent season was much better than Podkolzin’s Vancouver campaign.
In 2023-24, Holloway scored 1.14 pts-60 at five-on-five, compared to Podkolzin barely showing up (0.62) as an offensive player.
Podkolzin played just 19 games for Vancouver, averaging just over 10 minutes per game. Holloway played 38, getting about 11 minutes a game (all numbers five-on-five).
Unlike the defensive comparison, the math shows Holloway is the better player and he should have a more substantial career. One can never be sure, and the Oilers could unlock Podkolzin’s considerable potential, but as of today, there’s a talent gap worth noting between these two forwards.
The cap benefit
A major factor in the Oilers’ decision to pass on matching the dual offer sheets is cap room.
PuckPedia estimates Edmonton could start the 2024-25 season with $946,000 in cap room, 21 players and Evander Kane on IR. That would allow the team to accrue cap space.
Or the Oilers could put Kane on LTIR, allowing the club to exceed the cap by $5 million while Kane is unavailable.
The likely play is for the Oilers to tool the defence with what is currently on the roster, with an eye to a bold move around the trade deadline.
If Jackson and Bowman arrive at the 2025 deadline with a pile of cap room and a willingness to take on money, the pool of talent available from non-contenders should be significant at that time.
The bottom line
Management made themselves vulnerable to an offer sheet by being aggressive on July 1. That was deemed a strength at the time, but the dual offer sheet set the team on its heels, bringing on today’s news.
It is fair to be critical of the brazen approach to free agency on July 1 by the team. The spending of big money on older players left little room for the younger set, and it was clear both Broberg and Holloway were going to be pressured to sign for minimum increases.
That’s a part of the Oilers game plan that should be reassessed.
It should also be noted that neither of the two players exiting today are difference-makers at this time. We are five years past Broberg’s draft and he remains a somewhat unknown commodity as an NHL player. Holloway is trending in a good way four seasons after his name was called.
Edmonton isn’t losing Evan Bouchard today. He is the one player chosen after McDavid who has reached impact level during his time in the organization.
First blush reaction to this week? Jackson and Bowman handled a difficult situation creatively. This is a useful roster tweak; it positions the team well after what was essentially a two-for-two trade.
Edmonton gets a defenceman who could be as good as Broberg, gives up some talent at the forward position, and gains heavily in cap room.
The one worry for fans today: In trading Ceci, the team’s depth chart on defence has some questions. The top pairing (Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard) may have to be split up in an effort to strengthen the rest of the group.
Veterans Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak become even more important, with young Emberson about to enjoy miles of roster daylight if he can find the groove in his new hockey city.
Oilers fans are approaching September exhausted from the Stanley Cup run, the shock and awe of the draft and free agency, and now a week of offer sheet shenanigans.
Perhaps things will be quieter between now and September long. Don’t count on it.
(Photo of Dylan Holloway: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
