There are no New York Republican candidates in pivotal House races speaking at former President Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday, a list of speakers released by his campaign showed.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) is the only lawmaker from the Empire State in the lineup, though a polling forecast from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) shows her at a 99 percent chance of winning District 21 in the state.
Although New York as a whole will likely vote comfortably for Vice President Harris in November, there are six important House races — Districts 1, 4, 17, 18, 19 and 22 — that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the lower chamber after November, per The New York Times.
A recent poll showed Harris with a double-digit lead over Trump among likely voters in the Empire State, 58 percent to 39 percent. The 6 points mark an increase from September.
Though, Trump has seemingly set his sights on the deep blue state, making multiple campaigns stops to New York, which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Republicans have pointed to underlying reasons for his visits there, namely to boost four Republicans locked in crucial House races: Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams.
Earlier this week, in District 17, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the race toward incumbent Lawler, who has been locked in an expensive race against Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, who has raised more money than any other Democratic candidate in New York.
In District 17, a polling forecast from The Hill/DDHQ has Jones and Lawler each with a 50 percent chance of winning. But some of the New York House races aren’t nearly as close.
Incumbent Rep. Nick Lalota (R) in District 1 has an 80 percent chance of winning, compared to John Avlon’s 20 percent, The Hill/DDHQ’s polling forecast shows.
In District 4, D’Esposito’s chances of winning sit at 40 percent compared to his competitor Laura Gillen who’s chances are 60 percent, a polling forecast from The Hill/DDHQ shows.
Incumbent Pat Ryan (D) has a 90 percent chance of winning New York’s District 18, compared to Republican Alison Esposito’s 10 percent, The Hill/DDHQ’s polling forecast showed.
In District 19, incumbent Marc Molinaro (R) has a 44 percent chance of winning, compared to Josh Riley who has a 56 percent chance, The Hill/DDHQ’s polling forecast showed.
Republican incumbent Brandon Williams of New York’s 22nd District has a 44 percent chance of winning, compared to John Mannion (D), who has a 56 percent chance, a polling forecast from The Hill/DDHQ showed.
Harris campaign rapid response adviser James Singer was quick to note the absences in the rally’s list.
“Not a single swing district New York or New Jersey Republican,” Singer wrote in a post on the social platform X on Saturday.
The Hill has contacted the Trump campaign for comment.
