The holidays are done, you’re sitting in a home surrounded by all your new stuff, and you’re probably thinking: I don’t need some of this junk after all. I hope I kept the receipts.
A few NHL teams know how you feel.
We did this last year, and it’s interesting to go back and look at that list. I think it holds up fine – there aren’t any obvious cases where a player turned it around and made the doubters look bad. But what stands out is that even with a couple of honorable mentions slipped in, only one name from the list is still on the same team. That would be Anaheim’s Alex Killorn and his long-term UFA deal everyone thought was too expensive. But the six other names had all found new homes by opening night, including three – Pierre-Luc Dubois, Joonas Korpisalo and Ryan Johansen – who were traded despite having contracts that felt unmovable. I guess there’s some optimism to be found there if you see a guy on your favorite team on the list below.
Bonus five: Offseason acquisitions that haven’t worked out (yet)
5. Tyler Bertuzzi, Blackhawks – Bertuzzi held this spot a year ago too, when he was struggling with Toronto. The numbers haven’t been great in Chicago, although now that he’s finally being given a chance to click with Connor Bedard, there’s still time for the results to appear.
4. Vladimir Tarasenko, Red Wings – One of Steve Yzerman’s big offseason adds was the former 40-goal scorer who had 23 last year. So far, he’s on pace to fall short of double digits despite missing just one game. Probably not the production you’re looking for on a two-year deal that costs nearly $10 million.
3. Elias Lindholm, Bruins – The idea here was for the Bruins to finally add their first elite top-six center of the post-Bergeron era. It hasn’t really worked out that way, and while Lindholm has been better than some guys on this list, he’s also locked into a seven-year deal that already looks regrettable.
2. Viktor Arvidsson/Jeff Skinner, Oilers – I still have no idea how these two additions haven’t worked. At least they were reasonably cheap.
1. Steven Stamkos, Predators – I hate to do this because he’s a personal favorite, but it’s fair to assume that the Predators were hoping for a lot more than a 25-goal pace when they splashed out for the offseason’s biggest free agent. It’s impossible to untangle this from the team’s miserable record, and you could absolutely mention Jonathan Marchessault here too, if only because this was supposed to be Nashville planting a flag as Stanley Cup contenders and they have been… not that.
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Man, it sure feels like something big could be coming soon in Vancouver, with Elliotte Friedman’s latest report only adding to the intrigue. I thought I’d fantasy-booked every possibility already, but moving Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller would be something.
5. Florida Panthers (24-14-2, +8 true goals differential*) – I’m keeping the champs on the list even though there’s a solid case to be made for the Kings. Hey, speaking of which: the state of Florida vs. California in the cap era, who you got?
4. Edmonton Oilers (24-12-3, +19) – They’ve won 14 of their last 18 to basically wrap up a postseason start before the midway mark. Next up: Figuring out how to go full Glen Sather on the trade deadline.
3. Winnipeg Jets (27-12-2, +43) – They’ve lost three straight, and more importantly, 12 of 25 since that 15-1-0 start. With the Wild heating up again and right behind them, they need to start putting some wins back on the board. The good news: They’ve got the next six at home.
2. Washington Capitals (26-10-3, +42) – They scored seven against the Rangers on Saturday, and now they’ve got the Sabres tonight. If they put another touchdown on the board, I say the league steps in to fine them for bullying.
1. Vegas Golden Knights (27-9-3, +34) – If you missed it, we have our midseason grades for all 32 teams here. The Knights, not surprisingly, do well – one of only six teams to land in the “A” range, and one of only two to get the coveted A+.
Meanwhile, congrats to Mark Stone on 600 points.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Tampa Bay Lightning – This week, Pierre dropped a piece that asked a question I’d been thinking about lately: Is the league sleeping on the Lightning?
My answer: I’m not sure whether the league has been sleeping, but I’m pretty sure I have.
Part of that is my sportswriter brain, which likes to look for the storyline. The Atlantic had plenty, with the Panthers as defending champs, the Bruins collapsing early, the Leafs facing a do-or-die season and the Senators pushing for the playoffs while the Wings, Sabres and Canadiens struggle to find their footing.
The Lightning? They’re good, just like they always are. Ho hum.
They’re certainly not boring, especially with the subplot of the beloved captain being pushed out in favor of the younger UFA prize. It’s just that at some point, you get used to teams being good all the time, and it doesn’t feel notable anymore.
But for this year’s Lightning, there’s more to it. For most of us, this year’s version was expected to make the playoffs yet again – ho-hum – but that was about it. They haven’t won a playoff round in the last two seasons, which isn’t much of a slump for most of the league but feels like it when you won 11 in three years before that. So while the Lightning were supposed to be good, as always, “good” was about the ceiling. Their days as elite contenders felt like it was done.
Apparently, they didn’t get the memo, humming along over .600 for most of the year, hanging just back of the Leafs and Panthers in the race for top spot in the Atlantic. They’re going to the playoffs, and of course, once they get there all that experience and rings-in-the-room know-how kicks in and they’re not the team you want to play.
At least, that’s how they look a lot of nights this year. Not all of them, as losses to the Canadiens, Sharks and Ducks last week showed. With the Lightning, you always wonder how much those mini-slumps are a case of a team showing its flaws and how much is just a group that’s learned that it’s an eight-month grind and you can’t be full throttle for all of it. They haven’t been in my top five yet this year, and they’re not exactly close right now, so clearly I’m not fully sold. But I’m not sleeping, and you shouldn’t be either.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
As a Canadian, I’m not really sure what to say about this year’s World Junior Championships other than it was a real shame that the tournament was cancelled at the last minute. Ah well, best of luck to everyone next year.
5. Anaheim Ducks (17-18-4, -18) – I’ll need at least one more week to get up the nerve to put the Rangers here, especially since they at least managed to beat the Hawks. And I don’t think the Islanders deserve the spot quite yet, although reading quotes like this makes me wonder. Let’s just stick with the Ducks, if only so we can use this space to mention the creative Frank Vatrano extension that may (or may not) be an example of using deferrals to create a win-win.
Frank Vatrano’s 3-year, $18M extension is an interesting one. He will get paid $3M a year in base salary but then $9M in deferred salary. Starting 10 years from now in 2035, will make $900,000 a year for 10 years, and his plan is to live outside of California (and its tax system)…
— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) January 5, 2025
4. Nashville Predators (13-20-7, -25) – At least they’ve found themselves a new enforcer.
3. Buffalo Sabres (14-21-5, -15) – I really enjoyed Matthew’s piece on Sabres trade tiers, which I think strikes the right balance on who to move and what to expect in return. His list has only one untouchable, which seems right for a team having this kind of season. But there are enough names with trade value that you’re reminded the Sabres front office has plenty to work with if they decide to roll up their sleeves and get to work. It’s almost enough to get you feeling optimistic. Then you head to comments and see how optimistic Buffalo fans are about Kevyn Adams actually doing that, and… yeah.
2. San Jose Sharks (13-23-6, -35) – I could get behind the Mike Grier for GM of the Year push. A full strip-it-to-the-studs rebuild can be a bigger job than putting the finishing touches on a contender.
When Mike Grier took the Sharks GM job, he inherited the 32nd-worst cap situation and a prospect pool that wasn’t close to great.
If GM of the year was actually about who has done the most to help the franchise in the past 12 months, Grier should be a finalist, at minimum.
— Corey Masisak (@cmasisak22) January 4, 2025
1. Chicago Blackhawks (13-25-2, -36) – How about that Winter Classic. What did you think was the most memorable part? For me, it was when that guy did that thing. Anyway, we’re at the point in the season where Laz is breaking out the italics for the word “excruciating,” so that’s fun.
(Also, please stop making Jeremy Roenick feel sad.)
Not ranked: Montreal Canadiens – Wait, are they good?
I don’t mean “not in our bottom five anymore” good because that’s not really good, and besides we haven’t had them here for a few weeks now. And I don’t even mean good as in better than expected.
Could they actually be “playoff team” good?
The standings say they’re close. Saturday’s shootout win over the Avalanche moved them to within one point of the Senators for the last spot before the Penguins jumped up to grab it on Sunday. Ottawa has a game in hand, and Columbus is a point ahead too, and that’s before we mention a Red Wings team that’s won four straight under Todd McLellan to get back into the race. It’s crowded. But with half the season left to play, the Canadiens are in this race.
Whether they can stay there is another question. It’s fair to say that this has been a tough team to forecast lately, especially over a stretch that saw them beat the Panthers, Lightning and Golden Knights only to lose to the lowly Blackhawks, which is the kind of week that turns NHL fans into human shrug emojis. Beating those good teams has led to some well-deserved optimism in Montreal, who at least get to play some games that feel meaningful for a change.
Now comes the reality check. The models certainly don’t love their chances, with Dom having their playoff odds at just 3 percent, while Moneypuck is more optimistic but still in single digits. Recency bias makes that feel low, but we’re still talking about a long-shot story here. I guess our robot overlords don’t believe in Jakub Dobes being the next in line for the Jacques Plante/Ken Dryden/Patrick Roy/Carey Price torch-passing. Yet.
Jakub Dobes’ career is off to a historic start 👀 pic.twitter.com/RqnqVB0Hd9
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) January 5, 2025
So fine, they’re a long shot. That’s OK. This team was just about everyone’s consensus pick to finish dead last in the division, if not the conference. If they can even stay within range of a wild card for another month or two, that’s a lot of important experience for a young team that could use it, and a lot of optimism for a fan base that can be hard to please. With the future already looking bright, maybe that’s enough.
They’ve got the drama-infused Canucks tonight, followed by two more heavyweights in the Capitals and Stars. Even three weeks ago, when this team was sitting at 11-16-3, you wouldn’t have circled those games on the calendar as especially meaningful. Things can change quickly in the NHL. They’ve changed for the better in Montreal, and now we see how quickly it flips back to the expected script. If it does.
(Photo of Declan Carlile: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)
