Can the Dallas Stars catch the Winnipeg Jets?
That seemed impossible just a couple of months ago. The Jets have been the best in the West for most of the season and built separation against their Central Division rivals.
On Feb. 1, the Jets had an 11-point lead over the Stars. On March 1, Winnipeg maintained a distance of 10 points. But on April 1, that lead had shrunk to just four points.
That made the Jets’ 4-0 win over Vegas all the more impressive on Thursday night. Both teams fell short in regulation on Saturday — the Stars to Pittsburgh and Winnipeg to Utah. Sunday, Dallas picked up one point.
The gap is down to three points. Four of the Stars’ next five opponents are outside the playoff picture. Their only upcoming opponent still in it? Winnipeg on Thursday night. The Jets, on the other hand, have to go through the red-hot St. Louis Blues before that matchup and then the Edmonton Oilers afterward.
A Round 1 matchup of the Stars and Colorado Avalanche seemed set in stone for some time, but if Dallas plays its cards right, there is a path to first place. The race is on in the Central Division.
Hellebuyck’s workload
Will this year finally be different for Connor Hellebuyck in the playoffs? That may be the series-deciding question for the Jets.
This is one of the best versions of the Jets in years, and their defensive game has a lot to do with that. This team is super stingy, only giving up 2.3 expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five. But even with those improvements, Hellebuyck is still their backbone, and he will have to rise to the occasion in the playoffs.
Hellebuyck has been incredible this year, with 45 goals saved above expected in 49 games. That currently stands as the fourth-best in the analytics era. But he has had otherworldly seasons in years past and then turned into a pumpkin in the postseason — take last year when the Jets’ defense and goaltending unraveled in a five-game series against the Avalanche.
The question is whether it comes down to the pressure of playing in the postseason or his workload. If the 4 Nations Face-Off was any indication, maybe the environment isn’t the problem — it’s that the Jets burn him out before the most important time of year.
Hellebuyck’s best postseason performance came in 2020-21 when he earned a career-high .931 save percentage and saved 8.9 goals above expected in eight games. The difference between that year and the rest? He only played 45 regular-season games. Technically, that accounted for 80 percent of games in a condensed 56-game season — very different from playing 70-80 percent of an 82-game regular season and having to stand tall in the playoffs.
That is what Hellebuyck has done this year; with 59 appearances, he has played in over 76 percent of the Jets’ games this season. Maybe it’s time to consider some rest down the stretch.
That’s a tall ask, especially with the Stars creeping up the standings. Slipping down to the second seed means a matchup with the Avs. But Eric Comrie has been pretty solid with six quality starts in his last seven games, including a shutout against Vegas. Maybe the Jets can lean on him a little extra to keep their No. 1 as fresh as possible.
Tkachuk’s playoff debut
Speaking of players excelling at 4 Nations, Brady Tkachuk made an impact for Team USA. He generated a bunch of quality chances and converted on them, with three goals in four games — including a timely goal against Canada in the Final. With a 1.26 Net Rating, he was one of the most valuable players in the entire tournament. Add in his physical playing style and infectious energy, and he was a total sparkplug.
One of the takeaways from 4 Nations was that Tkachuk’s NHL playoff debut couldn’t come soon enough after sitting on the sidelines every spring for the last seven years. The Ottawa Senators are all but a lock to make it this year, which means Tkachuk’s time is finally coming.
Tkachuk has been sidelined for the last four games with an upper-body injury, but there is no long-term concern. That’s good news for the Senators since Tkachuk is one of their best shooters; he leads the team in shot volume, quality and goal scoring this year. That, paired with the electric energy he should bring to a postseason environment, makes him an ideal playoff leader for this up-and-coming team. That adds a lot of hype to a likely divisional matchup in Round 1, whether it’s Toronto, Tampa Bay or Florida.
The Kings’ home-ice advantage
No one takes advantage of home ice more than the L.A. Kings. The team has a 29-4-4 record and a .838 points percentage at home to lead the league. That success hasn’t translated the same way on the road, where the Kings are 15-19-5 with a 0.449 points percentage.
The Kings padded their home record on Saturday with a 3-0 win over a short-handed Oilers squad. They are 2-0 against Edmonton at home and lost their one meeting this season on the road. Those two points on Saturday helped the Kings gain ground over their likely Round 1 opponent — four points separate these two teams, who both have six games remaining. And four of those six games will be at home for the Kings.
Regular-season success is one thing, but the playoffs are a different animal. So will this translate for the Kings, especially in a series against the Oilers?
The Kings have a plus-48 goal differential at five-on-five, but that somewhat overshadows what is happening under the hood. The Kings’ five-on-five game is encouraging on the road; the team has a 58 percent expected goal rate thanks to stronger play on both ends of the ice. Scoring effects may play into that; this team isn’t playing with a lead as often on the road, which could explain its underlying numbers. But a reason the Kings aren’t leading as much on the road is likely because the team is only converting on 7.7 percent of their chances on the road, compared to 11.1 percent at home.
The Kings have the juice in Los Angeles — but if this team is going to sustain that against the Oilers of all opponents, they may want to pick up the pace below the surface even at home.
Can Tavares and Knies take pressure off the Leafs’ Big Three?
As much as the Toronto Maple Leafs have changed stylistically to match a grittier playoff environment, the conversation about this team’s chances revolves around three core players: Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner.
Nylander amps up his game in tight situations in close games and the playoffs. But Matthews and Marner haven’t found a way to consistently channel their same levels of regular-season success in the postseason. At least Marner was clutch for Team Canada at 4 Nations, but can he replicate that in Toronto?
Since management didn’t bolster the team’s secondary scoring last offseason or at the trade deadline, these three are going to have to shoulder most of the burden in the postseason. But maybe John Tavares’ resurgent season and Matthew Knies’ breakout will help spread the scoring wealth a bit.
Tavares is having one of his best scoring seasons after being snakebitten through stretches last year. And unlike last season, his scoring isn’t pumped up much by the power play (which is another problem for this team to solve). Tavares’ shooting percentage spike is somewhat of a red flag, but his five-on-five production is something this top six needs. The same goes for Knies, who has kicked his scoring up a notch this year from 1.92 points per 60 in all situations to 2.34.
Tavares and Knies can’t carry the Maple Leafs through the playoffs. But maybe they can help alleviate some of the burden on the big guns by providing the support this team craves when it matters most.
Are the Blues channeling their inner 2018-19?
A coaching change and a miraculous turnaround later, the Blues are all but locked into the playoff picture.
Sound familiar?
It’s not quite as dramatic as a turnaround from last place in the Western Conference to the eighth seed in 2019. But the Blues’ post-4 Nations surge transformed their playoff trajectory. This team’s playoff odds were down at 1.1 percent from the break. Ahead of Sunday’s matchups, it jumped to 98 percent.
If the Blues hold their standing, they are likely in for a Round 1 meeting with Vegas. The Jets (or the Stars) will be on the docket if the team slips behind Minnesota to eighth. Does this team have the same upset potential as that group from 2019?
The team has been lucky on both ends of the ice, but their five-on-five levels are impressive, adding some sustainability to their run. Defense is one thing to watch; St. Louis’ transition defense has become a significant strength, but the team was a bit leakier the last few games. For now, it’s a blip and not a pattern—and the eventual returns of Dylan Holloway and Colton Parayko should help settle things if needed. So if the Blues can keep up the momentum, they could be a nightmare Round 1 matchup for a first-place team.
A Metro-less wild card
Since the divisional realignment in 2013-14, at least four Metropolitan Division teams have reached the postseason. Metro teams have always taken at least one, if not two wild-card seeds.
- 2013-14: 1) Blue Jackets, 2) Red Wings
- 2014-15: 1) Senators, 2) Penguins
- 2015-16: 1) Islanders, 2) Flyers
- 2016-17: 1) Rangers, 2) Maple Leafs
- 2017-18: 1) Blue Jackets, 2) Devils
- 2018-19: 1) Hurricanes, 2) Blue Jackets
- 2019-21: COVID-19 adjustments
- 2021-22: 1) Bruins, 2) Capitals
- 2022-23: 1) Islanders, 2) Panthers
- 2023-24: 1) Lightning, 2) Capitals
At this rate, 2025 will be the first year five Atlantic Division teams make it. The Columbus Blue Jackets’ scoring has dried up. Neither New York team seems to have the chops to jump into the wild-card picture. The eighth seed is the Montreal Canadiens’ to lose after their post-4 Nations turnaround and another two wins this past weekend.
And that’s a key reason why the Metro has essentially been decided for months now. The Washington Capitals surged their way to the top of the Eastern Conference. Despite several personnel changes over the last year, the Hurricanes have stuck to their systematic strengths. And the New Jersey Devils, despite numerous injuries, have separated themselves from fourth place in the division.
Hutson’s Calder push
This year’s Calder Trophy race has been fun. Three players — a forward, a defenseman and a goalie — have jostled for position all season long.
Dustin Wolf has been the Calgary Flames’ MVP and ranks alongside some of the top goalies in the league; he is the reason Calgary has stayed in the playoff picture this long. Macklin Celebrini has done a lot with a little in San Jose and continues to show signs of a truly superstar-caliber ceiling.
But Lane Hutson is starting to separate himself in Montreal. He has threaded the needle offensively all season long and picked up the pace since 4 Nations. Not only have the Canadiens been generating more in his minutes, but the team is also giving up less. Raising his game as the playoff pressure mounts makes it all the more impressive — he has been one of the driving forces behind the Canadiens’ success in meaningful games. That may earn him some hardware this spring.
Get ready for goalie interference discourse
A few things in life are inevitable: death, taxes and discourse around goaltender interference calls.
Coaches have become incredibly efficient (and selective, to avoid penalty) with offside challenges over the years. Win percentages have hovered above the 85 percent mark in each of the last four regular seasons. And while there are usually slight declines in the postseason (a 10 percent dip last year, for example), it isn’t nearly as drastic as the change in goalie interference calls.
Goalie interference is trickier because the rules aren’t as black and white, and neither is the application. Relative to years past, coaches have become a bit more efficient with goalie interference challenges, but the regular-season peak came last year at just under 58 percent.
In the playoffs, that number drops dramatically. Last spring, coaches only won 33 percent of their challenges and drama ensued. There were controversial calls throughout the postseason, from Anthony Cirelli’s waved-off goal in Round 1 to Mason Marchment’s disallowed series-clinching goal against the Avalanche.
One thing different from years past is that more goals are getting disallowed on the ice — almost 14 percent of challenged interference plays start with a ‘no goal’ call, which doubles last season’s rate. Still, even with changes in the on-ice call, coaches are winning about 57 percent of their challenges, which is pretty on track from last season. But once again, that will likely all change once again in the playoffs. And in that high-pressure environment, every decision will be under the microscope.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Josh Morrissey, Mavrik Bourque and Mason Marchment: Terrence Lee / Imagn Images)