It’s now been 10 years since I wrote a column that lives in infamy.
Back then, while working for a site called Grantland, I decided it would be fun to write a power rankings-style column about the upcoming NHL Draft Lottery. There was a kid named Connor McDavid available that year, so the lottery had huge ramifications for the teams involved. I wrote a piece that built toward the main punchline that any result would be fine as long as the Oilers didn’t win. And everyone had a good laugh.
Then the lottery happened, and nobody was laughing anymore.
It all worked out for the best, he said, in case any Oilers fans were reading, and the lottery power rankings went on to become a tradition. A decade later, it’s time to dig into our annual lists of who needs it, who deserves it and who Gary Bettman is going to rig it for.
The ‘Who actually deserves it?’ rankings
The answer, as always, is “nobody.” But somebody’s going to get the top pick, so let’s figure out who came closest to earning it.
Not ranked: Utah Hockey Club — We already gave you a whole team last year. And besides, having the No. 1 pick is a big responsibility. You have to figure out which player to take, and then keep it a secret, and that part doesn’t seem to be your strong suit.
5. San Jose Sharks — They did finish last, so if you’re one of those weird anti-lottery types, I guess they’re the pick.
4. Nashville Predators — Most teams end up with high lottery odds because they tanked in the previous offseason. Say what you will about the Predators, but they certainly weren’t trying to be this bad.
3. Buffalo Sabres — The whole idea behind the awarding top picks to teams at the lower end of the standings is to prevent hopelessness from setting in, and the thing about that is (gestures at entire modern history of the Buffalo Sabres).
2. Calgary Flames — It’s the longest of long shots, and they could only move up to the No. 6 spot. But they’re only in the lottery at all because they missed the playoffs despite having more points than the Canadiens, who made it. That’s pretty much the polar opposite of tanking.
And there’s more: The Flames actually traded this pick away years ago, but it’s top-10 protected, meaning the only way they get to keep it is with a lottery win. And which team did they make that trade with? The Canadiens, of course.
(Also, the Pro Sports Transactions page for this year’s draft describes this whole trade as “ABSURDLY COMPLEX CONDITIONS,” which just makes me laugh each time I see it.)
1. Columbus Blue Jackets — Everyone’s second-favorite team overcame tragedy to put together a far better season than anyone expected, and thanks to the NHL’s system, all that might ultimately mean is that they miss out on a top draft pick. Unless they don’t, because the hockey gods reward them with a long-shot leap up to the third pick.
The ‘What’s best for whoever gets picked first?’ rankings
Unlike most years, we can’t say for sure who’ll be the top pick. Defenseman Matthew Schaefer or center Michael Misa have moved to the top of draft boards, a spot James Hagens had held for most of the season, but it could come down to which team has which needs when they step up to the podium. That said, one thing that is consistent year to year is that some situations are better than others.
Not ranked: Buffalo Sabres — I love you, Sabres fans, but this doesn’t feel like an ideal situation to drop a heavily hyped prospect into, right?
5. Nashville Predators — If you’re a scoring forward, as most of the top prospects are, playing behind (or with) Steven Stamkos seems like it would be extremely cool. And if you’re Schaefer, you’d get to apprentice under Roman Josi for a franchise that knows how to build around blue-line stars.
4. New York Islanders — This is entirely for Hagens, a local kid who grew up an Islanders fan. The “hometown hero who saves the franchise” trope can be a tricky one to navigate, and some prospects are better off avoiding it, but when it hits, it’s hard to resist. Islander fans, check his bed sheets.
3. Anaheim Ducks — Warm weather and a low-pressure environment, but on a team that could be about to take a big step forward.
2. San Jose Sharks — This team feels like it’s ready to take off. Maybe not next year, but soon, and that timing might be just about perfect for a top prospect.
1. Chicago Blackhawks — It’s a big market that loves its hockey heroes when they’re winning. That last part has been an issue, and the rebuild no longer feels like the sure thing it once was. Still, it’s rare that a top pick can join a team without the pressure of being the franchise savior, and in Chicago, that role already belongs to Connor Bedard.
Connor Bedard, the No. 1 pick in 2023, is already the young face of the Blackhawks. (Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
The ‘Who needs it most?’ rankings
Everyone needs the top pick, but some teams need it, you know?
Not ranked: San Jose Sharks — Congratulations, you just got drafted No. 1, you’re now our 18th-best prospect.
5. Vancouver Canucks — They could only move up to fifth, but at this point I think Vancouver fans would take it. Anything to suggest that the fates aren’t actually conspiring to make you as miserable as possible.
4. Philadelphia Flyers — They’ve got Matvei Michkov, but the rest of the pipeline is just OK. More importantly, they’ve spent the last few years looking like a team that’s dangerously close to getting sucked in by the gravity of the dreaded “not good enough to make the playoffs but not quite bad enough to pick a sure thing” mushy middle.
3. New York Islanders — Old: Players can’t have beards. New: Players can’t grow beards.
2. Boston Bruins — They’re an old team with recent success, but that’s come at the cost of a near-empty pipeline and no firm direction for the future. With the GM under fire and the fan base wondering what the long-term plan looks like, the hockey gods dropping a gift would be a convenient miracle for the team — and the NHL’s accounting department.
1. Pittsburgh Penguins — Everything we just said for Boston, except the part about recent success. Yes, we’d all hate it, but there’s really no other pick to be had in this category.
The ‘Uh oh, that’s not good for the rest of us’ rankings
Half of the appeal of the lottery is to point and laugh at the bad teams, but that stops being fun when you realize one of them might be about to take your team’s lunch money and/or playoff spot.
Not ranked: Boston Bruins — Are they one prospect away from being done with the rebuild? Absolutely not. Could their front office convince itself of that anyway? Quite possibly. Am I mainly listing them here because it would feel mean to pick on the Sabres again? No further questions.
5. Anaheim Ducks — They want to be a playoff team next year, and they might already have the skill to do it. Adding yet another blue-chip prospect risks shifting them from moderately concerning to legitimately scary.
4. Chicago Blackhawks — Look, they’re going to start winning eventually. Probably. Maybe.
3. New York Rangers — They’re still just one year removed from the Presidents’ Trophy, and while most of the core is getting old, adding another young building block to go with Adam Fox and Alexis Lafrenière would be worrying.
2. Utah Hockey Club — They didn’t quite reach the (probably unrealistic) expectations a lot of us had in Year 1, but a lot of the pieces are already in place.
1. San Jose Sharks — Not to keep beating this point into the ground, but they’re about to be really good.
The ‘Which team might trade down?’ rankings
As always, the answer here is that nobody will trade down, because NHL GMs are timid wimps who are primarily interested in their own job security above team success, and as such would far rather add an asset that can’t be fully evaluated for years to come instead of trying to win right now.
But we can pretend. And we do, every year, even though it never happens.
Not ranked: Seattle Kraken — They have a new GM, which usually means patience, and with Matty Beniers two years into a sophomore slump, you could argue they’ve yet to have a true blue-chip prospect.
5. New York Rangers — They’re built to win now. And they did win … the regular season … a year ago. This is less about whether it would be the right move and more about how just about everything seems to be on the table in New York these days.
4. Anaheim Ducks — Pat Verbeek is on record saying he wants to make the playoffs next season. They missed by 16 points this year, and one good 18-year-old isn’t going to make up much of that gap in Year 1.
3. Chicago Blackhawks — Is it time? Say what you will about the ethics of Kyle Davidson’s tear-it-all-down rebuild, but he had a plan and executed it. So far, though, the results have been disappointing. Do you add another prospect to an already-stacked pipeline, or do you make a move to get Bedard some help right now? (For what it’s worth, Scott doesn’t think it’s out of the question.)
2. Buffalo Sabres — The fan base is furious. The players are frustrated. The playoff drought is already the longest in history. They already have two No. 1 picks on the roster. A Montreal team that was supposed to be years behind them in their own rebuild just blew past them into the playoffs. And the GM is well past his expiration date, or would be for just about any other organization. Would they honestly preach patience if they were gifted a lottery win? Yes, of course they would.
1. Nobody — But thank you for indulging me.
Buffalo captain Rasmus Dahlin is one of two recent No. 1 picks along with fellow blueliner Owen Power. (Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
The ‘Get your tinfoil hat’ rankings
For the record, it’s adorable that the league thinks finally doing the actual draw live (after years of saying they couldn’t) is going to make the conspiracy theorists shut up.
By the way, you’re assuming that the answer here is the top pick going to the Penguins. But it’s not!
Not ranked: Chicago Blackhawks — They usually rank highly, but remember the new-ish rule about moving up in multiple lotteries. They already won the Bedard draw, and moving up again would mean they’d be ineligible for any further lottery wins for a few years. With no clear No. 1 this year, the NHL would rather keep its future options open than rig anything now for its precious Hawks.
5. New York Rangers — I’d have the big-market Rangers higher, but they’ve only got a 3 percent chance of landing the top spot, so the lottery-fixers in the league office might feel this is a bit too obvious.
4. Seattle Kraken — They paid $650 million for a team, and four years later, they’ve had little success and even less optimism for the immediate future. Wouldn’t it be a happy coincidence if the league fates helped their new GM out?
3. Boston Bruins — “Yes, Mr. Jacobs. The top pick, you say, Mr. Jacobs? Consider it done, Mr. Jacobs.”
2. The Penguins getting the top pick — This is the easy answer, both for conspiracy-minded fans and for a league office that loves the Penguins and wants to make sure they always have a new franchise player ready to keep them out of bankruptcy. It’s obvious. In fact, it’s a little too obvious …
1. The Penguins getting the second pick — Fans around the league would go ballistic about the fix being in if the Penguins won the top pick, and the league knows it. So, instead, wouldn’t it make more sense to rig things so that the Penguins win the second drawing and move up to second? It would mute the criticism and make the whole setup just a little less obvious. And since it’s a year without a clear-cut top pick, it might not even change the outcome of who the Penguins get to draft. We’re on to you, Bettman.
The ‘Unintentional comedy’ rankings
What’s a hockey fan who needs a good laugh to do these days? Right, remember that the Avalanche traded Mikko Rantanen away over a few thousand dollars, but what else?
Not ranked: Seattle Kraken — I feel like statistically, a team moving up from sixth is the least entertaining option in any lottery format. It’s not a big enough jump that you can be shocked by it, but also not small enough that you can complain about tankers being rewarded. It’s the ultimate “yeah, OK, sure I guess” result.
5. Detroit Red Wings — They could only move up to the second pick, but it would be fun to see what their fans would talk about if they couldn’t mention never picking in the top three every 30 seconds.
4. New York Islanders — I just want to watch the traditional interview with the winning GM, featuring Lou Lamoriello awkwardly answering questions while it becomes clear that nobody in the organization has gotten the courage to tell him he’s fired yet.
3. The Penguins pick first, the Blackhawks pick second — At which point we immediately cut to a shot of Gary Bettman sipping from a mug that reads “NHL Fan Tears.”
2. Vancouver Canucks — Mainly because it would be fun to see if Jim Rutherford’s phone immediately started ringing with Quinn Hughes finally calling him back after his golf round went long.
1. The one combo out of 1,001 that would force a redraw — Yes, the league has been very clear about how the lottery is held, how the math works and why there’s exactly one combo that would force them to start over. No, that would absolutely not matter if the first live lottery under this system actually ended in the most confusing and conspiracy-feeding way possible.
Yes, it’s literally less than a one-in-a-thousand shot, but come on — the Leafs just won a playoff round, you can’t say anything’s impossible.
(Top photo of NHL commissioner Gary Bettman presiding over the 2024 NHL Draft Lottery: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)