It’s safe to say Week 5 was a pretty mid week for NFL MVP candidates, but Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes still has the best odds to claim league MVP at +240, followed by Houston Texas quarterback C.J. Stroud (+650) and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+650).
The top five contenders, including Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+750) and Washington Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels (+1000), can make this one of the tightest MVP races we’ve ever seen.
Mahomes is getting a lot of credit for helping KC get to 5-0 after a pretty convincing win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. He is in pursuit of his third league MVP award and is coming off a season-high 331 passing yards by finding eight different receivers in the win.
However, Mahomes’ numbers don’t scream MVP. He has six touchdown passes and six picks on the year. His 55.8 QBR ranks 16th in the league and would by far be his lowest across a full season. And, yes, KC is 5-0, but the defense has been a major factor in that. The Chiefs are allowing 17 points per game (tied for fifth-fewest in the NFL). I think one narrative that may help Mahomes is the fact that he’s doing this with a medley of receivers rather than the Legion of Zoom era when he first became a starter. But to me, the first time the Chiefs lose this season will help bring Mahomes’ MVP odds back to Earth.
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After an 0-2 start, the two-time league MVP in Jackson has flocked right back into this year’s MVP race as he’s led the Ravens to their third straight win. Jackson continues to be a thorn in the side of the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s now 9-1 all-time against the AFC North rivals. He was able to fend off Cincy with his right arm (348 passing yards, four touchdown passes) and his legs (55 rushing yards).
Should we be surprised? It’s what he’s always done and he’s continuing that trend this season with a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 1,569 yards of total offense (1,206 passing, 363 rushing). It helps when you’ve got the league’s leading rusher joining you in the backfield in Derrick Henry. Leading the league in total offense (447.6) and rushing offense (211.2), the Louisville product is finding his rhythm once again and it’s paying dividends for Baltimore.
Speaking of getting back in rhythm, Stroud has rebounded nicely in the MVP race since a disastrous Week 3 performance against the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings. He has put up back-to-back 300-plus passing yard games. Even when No. 1 receiver Nico Collins bowed out with a hamstring injury and the running game still struggling with the absence of Joe Mixon, the former Buckeyes standout helped the Texans eek out a tight win against the Bills.
Meanwhile, Allen and the Bills watched Stefon Diggs win at the expense of his former team on Sunday. Allen has the fourth-best odds to win MVP, but some of the air has been let out in his last two outings. After charging through the first three games en route to AFC Player of the Month honors for September, Allen engineered two clunkers against the Texans and the Ravens. The Week 5 loss in H-Town may have been the worst we’ve seen him though — Allen went 9-for-30 through the air with 131 passing yards. That 30 percent completion rate is by far the worst of his career and follows up an outing in Baltimore where he recorded a 32.6 QBR and 55.2 completion percentage.
If the last two games have shown anything it’s that the Bills are still looking to fill Diggs’ shoes. Maybe this is a sign for general manager Brandon Beane to target receivers like Davante Adams or Amari Cooper after speculation of them being available in the trade market.
NFL MVP odds
Jayden Daniels, welcome to the MVP conversation. Being Rookie of the Year favorite almost seems too light of an honor for Daniels. But how can you not include a quarterback on this list whose team is 4-1 and is built around his do-it-all skill set? Simply put, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is balling. He was able to quickly dispose of the Cleveland Browns with the Commanders’ most dominant win of the season. Daniels’ completion rate in the win was off from his torrid pace through the first month, but the LSU product still holds a remarkable 77.1 completion percentage through his first five starts. It was his legs that were special in the win over the Dawg Pound, though. Daniels recorded 82 rushing yards — his second time cracking 80 yards this season. He’s now up to 300 yards on the ground this year, only trailing Jackson in terms of QB rushing yards.
Longshots to watch
Can Sam Darnold get some love? At +1300 odds to win MVP, the USC product is one of the most intriguing stories of the 2024 season. Week 5 may not have been his best showing, but the Vikings QB has put together a solid season with 11 touchdown passes to four interceptions and 1,111 passing yards. The most important stat though? The Vikings remain unbeaten at 5-0, their first 5-0 start since 2016. They now head into their bye but everyone should be looking forward to their Week 7 matchup against the Detroit Lions in one of the key early NFC North matchups this season.
One other MVP longshot to consider is Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (+3500). It wasn’t the prettiest of starts to the season for Captain Kirk, but he more than steadied the ship this week when he posted a record-setting performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cousins’ 509 passing yards in the win were a Falcons franchise record and with four TDs, he became the 13th player in NFL history to hit both benchmarks in a game. I know everyone was concerned with his play through four games, but considering how quickly he was back on the field after tearing his Achilles tendon last October, Cousins should only get better as he gets healthier throughout the season.
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
