NFL MVP odds: Josh Allen takes over lead from Lamar Jackson

By / / Sports / 6 minutes of reading


NFL MVP odds have moved again following a weekend of key matchups. Lamar Jackson faced off against his rival Pittsburgh Steelers, and Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills took on Patrick Mahomes and the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs; the results lifted Allen to the leader of the pack.

After trailing Jackson entering Week 11, the Bills’ signal-caller is at +150 to win his first MVP award, slightly ahead of Jackson at +200. The 2018 first-round quarterbacks are followed by Jared Goff (+600), Patrick Mahomes (+1300), and Jalen Hurts (+1400).

NFL MVP odds

Rise of the winter soldier

Totaling 317 yards (262 passing, 55 rushing) and two touchdowns, Allen pushed Buffalo past the unbeaten Chiefs to hand them their first loss since last Christmas Day. He now has 18 touchdowns and five interceptions on the season, but Allen’s legs stole the show in this one with a clutch 26-yard touchdown run on 4th-and-2 with 2:17 to go in the game.

Allen now has 23 total touchdowns (18 passing, five rushing), with a 72.6 QBR (fourth in the league) and a 98.2 passer rating. His rushing touchdowns are second-most in the league among QBs, but most importantly, the Bills are 9-2 heading into their bye week. They’re still a game behind KC, but the Bills are now closer to seizing the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Allen could put his stamp on the MVP race in Week 15 when Buffalo visits Detroit to take on Goff and the Lions.

Former MVPs struggle

Mahomes continues to have an up-and-down 2024. With 15 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions and a 90.3 passer rating, the two-time MVP’s best chance at claiming his third appeared to be running the table and going undefeated. But Allen and the Bills dashed all those hopes Sunday.

Kansas City may get Buffalo back in the playoffs and even win its third consecutive Super Bowl, but Mahomes will still likely take a backseat to other star QBs in the MVP race.

Meanwhile, Jackson is dealing with yet another loss to the Steelers. While the defeat may affect his MVP candidacy, Jackson is surely more concerned with Baltimore falling to the AFC North-leading Steelers for the eighth time in nine matchups. Pittsburgh’s second-ranked scoring defense stifled Jackson to a season-low in completion percentage (48.5) and passer rating (66.1), and he threw his first interception since Oct. 13. To add insult to injury, his lone touchdown in the game was followed by a failed two-point conversion, which left the Ravens trailing Pittsburgh with 1:06 to play.

Jackson was able to move around with 46 rushing yards but to no avail. He will have to put together stronger performances down the stretch to win his third MVP award. And he still has some tough defenses on the slate in the Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans and a second matchup with Pittsburgh.

The Ravens sit at 7-4, which puts them in position to make the playoffs. Lamar is still having an otherworldly season overall (2,876 passing yards, 25 TDs, three interceptions, 584 rushing yards). But Jackson only has a claim for a third MVP if Baltimore can get over its up-and-down play.

Going (G)off

Goff did his best to lose the MVP race in Week 10 against the Texans, but he did everything he could to cleanse himself of that game by going off on the Jacksonville Jaguars. He totaled season-highs with 412 passing yards and four touchdown passes, pushing him to a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Goff has four games this season with a passer rating of 140 or higher, tied for most in NFL history.

Goff has been ultra-efficient this season, and he was again on Sunday, throwing nearly as many touchdown passes (four) as incompletions (five).

Missed opportunities

Many players could’ve asserted themselves in the MVP race this weekend, but they left too much food on the table. I’ve mentioned Jackson and Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels (+4000) lost to the Eagles. Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow really missed out though.

Herbert (+2500) helped the Chargers get to 7-3, and he did look like an MVP candidate in the first half. He was 10-of-14 with 183 passing yards and had 58 rushing yards, two touchdown passes and a 153.3 passer rating. His solid play led to an eventual 27-6 lead early in the second half.

But his second half was far from what we saw early in the game, as Herbert went 7-of-22 and turned the ball over for the first time since Week 2. The Chargers nearly squandered their 21-point lead, but J.K. Dobbins closed the game with a 29-yard touchdown scamper with 18 seconds remaining.

Herbert failed to seize a big opportunity as Cincy’s defense ranks No. 28 in the NFL in points allowed per game. His numbers are still pretty good (13 touchdowns, one interception, 102.1 passer rating), but he had the chance to climb back into the MVP race and just missed it.

Across the field, the Bengals are less likely to make the playoffs at 4-7, even though Burrow’s 2024 season is absurd statistically. The 2019 Heisman Trophy winner leads the league in passing yards (3,028), touchdown passes (27) and QBR (76.1), but it hasn’t been enough to overcome having one of the worst defenses (and offensive lines) in the game.

Sleeper of the week

Saquon Barkley may not be leading the league in rushing yards and touchdowns like Derrick Henry, but he seems poised to challenge Henry for Offensive Player of the Year honors. Barkley leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,347), is averaging 5.8 yards per carry and has been the catalyst for the Eagles during their six-game winning streak. He has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in four of those six wins, including an electrifying performance on Thursday Night Football to quiet the surging Commanders.

Barkley’s biggest challenges? First, winning MVP is hard when your team is not the No. 1 seed. Philly has a shot at grabbing the top spot in the NFC, but Detroit is stiff competition and playing well. Second, most running backs who won the MVP award were the league’s leading rusher. Henry’s early-season pace gave him a huge lead, but Barkley has been able to catch up in recent weeks. Barkley has more total yards from scrimmage than Henry, but the Eagles RB has to compete with Jalen Hurts and the tush push for goal-line TDs.

There’s no denying that Hurts is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the game. He’s up to 23 total scores for the year, including 11 rushing TDs, most among quarterbacks, which has directly impacted Barkley’s numbers. Barkley has been tackled at the 1-yard-line before a Hurts score on four different occasions this year. If he had been given those goal-line attempts, Barkley would have 14 total touchdowns (trailing only Henry for the league’s lead).

If Barkley keeps balling like he does, he has a legit shot to win his first Offensive Player of the Year award and an outside shot to win MVP. But if he keeps getting the Eagles down to the 1-yard-line while his QB finishes the job, Hurts could be vying for his first MVP and possibly breaking his record of 15 TD rushes in the process.

(Photo credit: Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)





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About The Author

Fannie Hogan is a writer and editor who covers lifestyle, books, sports, education, and tech. She's always loved to write—from the time she was a little girl writing stories about talking animals to the day she got her first job as an editor at a lifestyle magazine. Her hobbies include long walks on the beach, running, and taking breaks from work to read a good book.

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