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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re happy to announce that Formula One is back. It wasn’t official until we said that.
The Australian Grand Prix weekend is well underway. I’m Patrick, and Luke Smith will be along shortly. Let’s dive in.
Don’t Worry
There’s no use predicting F1 right now
Our 2025 season predictions are out today. And I have a confession to make. Midway through the second practice session (FP2) in Melbourne, I wrote this in our Slack channel:
i’m already convinced i have the worst predictions
ah well
I remember feeling the same way about last season’s predictions. We write these before cars hit the track for the first practice sessions of the season (again, preseason testing doesn’t telegraph much). Once you start to see most of the cars unleashed during the first weekend of the year, it’s pretty easy to feel silly about your preconceived notions. At least, it is for me.
For instance:
- I thought Haas would pick up right where they left off in 2024: as one of the better teams in the midfield. Well, Ollie Bearman crashed in FP1 and missed FP2, and Esteban Ocon was 1.5 seconds off the fastest lap in FP2.
- I had started to believe Red Bull’s talk about not being the fastest team was a bluff. Max Verstappen finished fifth in FP1 and seventh in FP2. “Maybe the biggest surprise of the session was to see both Racing Bulls not only ahead of the Red Bulls, but ranking so highly,” Luke wrote.
- I liked Williams’ new lineup of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon but didn’t think it would make too much of a step forward this early in the season. Uh, Carlos Sainz finished second in FP2 and his race pace was just four-tenths behind pace-setter Lando Norris, per Formula Data Analysis.
- I almost picked Gabriel Bortoleto as the season’s best rookie driver, but then saw how slow the Saubers were last night and immediately regretted even flirting with that choice.
- Did I mention how Lando Norris said his rivals and pundits were “short-sighted” for hyping up McLaren’s predicted advantage so much? Well … after practice, McLaren is clearly the top team this weekend. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So, I don’t know what’s real anymore, and won’t until Sunday. (And even then, it’s supposed to rain.)
After FP2, “that’s where you start to understand whether you are fifth team, eighth team or 10th team or seventh,” Sainz said on Thursday. He’s right, and I’d also argue that even now is too early to tell. Remember, Norris and McLaren didn’t emerge as title contenders last season until the Miami Grand Prix in May.
We’ve got a long road ahead, folks. It’s Schrödinger’s prediction season. We’re all simultaneously right and wrong for the next month or so. (At least, that’s what I’ll be telling myself.)
Race favorites, wildlife and schedule
Based on the first two practices, the top teams to beat in Melbourne look like:
- McLaren
- Ferrari
- Mercedes
- A little moat with ducks
- Red Bull
- A larger moat with alligators
- Everyone else
Race preview round-up:
If you thought I was kidding about the ducks, I wasn’t. But there’s no moat — just ducks. George Russell almost hit a flock of them in practice, and then Luke had a run-in during his post-practice track jog:
(Luke Smith/The Athletic)
The schedule
- FP3: Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET / Saturday, 1:30 a.m. GMT
- Qualifying: Saturday, 1 a.m. ET / 5 a.m. GMT
- Australian Grand Prix: Saturday, midnight ET / 4 a.m. GMT
Inside the Paddock with Luke Smith
Ollie Bearman’s inevitable, important error
The hype around Bearman has all tracked one way — upward — since his last-minute debut for Ferrari in Jeddah last year. But there was always going to be a moment he came back down to earth.
That arrived on Friday in Australia when Bearman, 19, crashed at the exit of the high-speed Turn 9-10 chicane after running wide through the gravel, causing him to lose control of his car. Although he got out of the car unaided and was physically fine, the damage to the car meant he could take no part in FP2.
Bearman explained the mistake as “just wanting a bit too much too soon,” noting that he had to change his approach from Formula Two, where there was just a single, short practice session before qualifying, and build things up more gradually with the F1 car. “Maybe I overdid it slightly, but it’s totally on me.”
Speaking to Bearman, he was clearly downbeat about the mistake and the work it had left his Haas mechanics. But this kind of error was both inevitable — as it is for all the rookies this year — and important. He’s learned the hard way how costly these mistakes can be. Now it’s about ensuring it does not happen again.
The Timer is Set
What’s at stake for Hamilton and Ferrari?
For all the optimism and hype around Lewis Hamilton’s debut with Ferrari this weekend, the fact remains: Only results matter, and the 40-year-old is running out of time to win his record-setting eighth world championship. As Luke wrote this week:
“F1 rarely deals in fairytales. Many of the previous greats who have driven for Ferrari came with the same hope and promise. Yet when the results did not materialize and the wait for a championship continued, frustration set in, bubbled over and led to their departures in sour fashions.”
It’s a good reminder that a lot rides on 2025 for Hamilton.
Outside the Points
I had no idea the “world’s best croissant” (per The New York Times) was made by an ex-F1 engineer. I do now! Read about it here.
Psst: There’s still time to learn about the five rookies on the grid this year.
Finally, two contract extensions to read about: Oscar Piastri at McLaren, and F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali.
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(Top photo: Paul Crock/AFP via Getty Images)
