A plus-eight Net Rating separates the Panthers and Maple Leafs, but there are some differences in the process to get to that point.
At five-on-five, the Panthers have more oomph below the surface. Florida was one of the best regular-season teams in the league for a reason; they generated a ton of quality offense and were stingy in their own end. The Leafs, after changing how they play this year, created less offense than the Panthers but converted on a higher clip of their chances. Toronto’s goaltending also gave them stronger results on the other end of the ice, even though their expected goal suppression wasn’t as stout.
The Leafs amped up their defense against the Senators, but containing Florida is a different challenge. The Panthers’ defense was tight and took away the Lightning’s space. If Toronto is going to cut through that, the team will have to pick up the pace from Round 1.
The Panthers have more substance to their five-on-five offense, but the Leafs have more on the power play. Toronto’s five-forward power play unit was dynamic down the stretch and into Round 1. But the Panthers’ penalty kill was a major strength in the regular season and lights out in Round 1. That brings their Defensive Rating up to a plus-30, which just edges out Toronto. But the Maple Leafs’ penalty kill is no pushover, either. If they can contain Florida’s power play, it could neutralize the special teams battle and put extra emphasis on five-on-five play.