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Recently, I decided to start buying a bunch of unopened packs of 1990-91 basketball trading cards. Two nights ago, with no NBA on, I organized them in a binder with card sleeves and put them in order. This might have been the most cathartic action of my life. Recommend. 10/10 activity.
Never Gonna Happen
Luka Dončić’s supermax wasn’t in the cards
It’s been a little over two weeks since the Mavericks shocked the world by trading Luka Dončić, sans trade demand, to the Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a future first-round pick. And … it still doesn’t make sense to me. Mavericks fans are still quite upset by it and probably will be for the next month or 120. Maybe this section will ease their minds. Or maybe it will make them even angrier!
The supermax deal Dončić was due became a major talking point in this fantastic Nico Harrison profile from Christian Clark, Mike Vorkunov and Fred Katz earlier this week. The 25-year-old has earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections, which made him more than eligible for the five-year, $345 million supermax extension with Dallas. But:
“There was one twist: The Mavericks were never going to offer Dončić that mega-deal, league sources said. And a general manager identifying one star to trade, negotiating with only one GM he knows and trusts and targeting only one player who he’s worked with before and whose character he can vouch for — just as Harrison did with Dončić, Pelinka and Davis — was no accident.”
There are currently eight supermax deals in the NBA (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokić, Devin Booker, Damian Lillard and Karl-Anthony Towns), per Spotrac. Dončić is no longer eligible for one after the trade. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be eligible this summer, and, unless Harrison replaces Sam Presti, it feels like a lock the Thunder guard will receive exactly that. SGA will be the first player to make $80 million in a season.
As for the Mavs and this latest Dončić nugget, it’s pretty obvious Harrison wanted nothing to do with keeping him as Dallas’ franchise guy. There aren’t many superstars in the history of this sport like him, but the Mavs decided, at his young age, they couldn’t trust him or his future enough to deliver a title. Harrison opted for Davis to pair with Kyrie Irving, both players Harrison knew well from when he was at Nike.
Dončić was a shoo-in for the supermax deal, or so we thought. He was supposed to join that exclusive supermax group. Now, his financial future is a little murkier, but I think he’ll get by.
The Last 24
WNBA collectibles soaring above NBA’s
💰 Market share shock. Caitlin Clark’s trading card chase gives us a surprise.
⭐ Get weird. John Hollinger has a theory about the new All-Star format: It’s not weird enough.
🏀 New-look Los Angeles. How has Dončić been in his two games with the Lakers? He’s got the team looking like a top offense.
😼 KAT thriving. James Edwards III wrote about how Towns became the best version of himself. This season could be legacy-altering.
🇺🇲 Team USA doc. Netflix has finally released the highly anticipated docuseries about the 2024 men’s basketball team winning gold in Paris.
✍️ KD’s passion. The great Marcus Thompson II explains why Kevin Durant embodies the true spirit of basketball.
🧘 Calm and confident. Here is Jason Quick on Scoot Henderson quieting his mind to help his game get louder.
📺 Don’t miss this game tonight. Hornets (13-39) at Lakers (32-20), 10 p.m. ET on League Pass. The winner gets to decide if the Mark Williams-Dalton Knecht trade goes through.
Player Poll!
Maybe the new All-Star format isn’t so bad?
Everybody loves it when players, coaches or executives get to weigh in on the issues or happenings of the NBA. Sure, you can read The Athletic until you’re blue in the face, and there is value in that. Subscribe if you can! But hearing from the people inside the league will always give a great perspective. We had a player poll from participants throughout All-Star Weekend on a variety of topics, and the results are pretty interesting.
Nobody liked the 40-minute game idea. Remember when we talked about that recently? Well, everybody voted against it. Trae Young echoed something I said about copying other league rules around the world:
“The other leagues should be chasing what we do every year.”
Rules about 3-point shooting: A few players channeled their inner Antoine Walker by saying a 4-point line was a good idea.
Expansion: Almost everybody wanted to see a team in Las Vegas. However, there was one All-Star who had a truly wild expansion and realignment idea. Darius Garland of the Cavaliers:
“Nashville, because I live there. How about we move Memphis to Nashville, put a team in Vegas, a team in Paris, a team in Dubai and a team in Saint-Tropez?”
Is Garland just putting teams in places to either live in or vacation to? Because that is … genius! I’d love The Athletic to give me an office in Prague!
New All-Star format: Most everybody polled was in favor of the new format. Young was one of the few players who said they don’t like it, and he brings up a good point about trying to keep bodies warm and active so they can be competitive.
“I don’t think so. I don’t think it was a great format. Obviously, I feel like the long breaks were a lot on the players and things like that. Obviously, we’re trying to stay warm and play hard and play as much as you want us to be competitive. I mean, it’s not easy on your body when you’re taking that long of breaks in between.”
Best player in five years: Victor Wembanyama got the majority of the votes because of course he did. The ever-confident Anthony Edwards even named Wemby as the guy. But one of the G League Rising Stars participants had a different answer. If you’re reading the player poll and wondering who voted for Mexico City Capitanes wing Dink Pate, then look no further than Dink Pate.
Over/Under Updates
Twelve teams projected to exceed expectations
Here comes the final stretch of the 2024-25 regular season! We have roughly 30 games remaining for each team. You know what that means? We’re close to some over and/or under bets from the preseason hitting. This is also a good time to check out Law Murray’s latest edition of NBA Power Rankings, as the All-Star break subsides.
Three teams have already cleared their over/under numbers from October: The Pistons (25.5 o/u, 29 wins now), Nets (19.5 o/u, 20 wins now) and Trail Blazers (22.5 o/u, 23 wins now) have each overperformed.
Including those squads, 12 are projected to hit the over on the season.
As for the unders: We already have the 76ers (51.5 o/u, best they can do is 48) and Pelicans (46.5 o/u, best they can do is 40) locking in their unders. Let’s take a look at the nine other teams that are projected to make the over. The over/under numbers were provided in the preseason by BetMGM.
(Note: LA Clippers didn’t get a preseason over/under, likely due to uncertainty with Kawhi Leonard’s health.)
East’s projected overs
Hawks: O/U 36.5 | Currently 26-29 | On pace for 39-43
It’s not a strong over, but the Hawks will take it. They aren’t really trustworthy with this stuff, so I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet.
Bulls: O/U 27.5 | Currently 22-33 | On pace for 34-48
Chicago moved Zach LaVine at the deadline and has lost 14 of its last 19 games. But the Bulls need just six more wins for the over. 🔒
Cavaliers: O/U 48.5 | Currently 44-10 | On pace for 67-15
Underestimating the Cavs has proven to be a foolish practice this season. They’re obliterating this projection pretty soon – five wins away from hitting the over. 🔒
West’s projected overs
Nuggets: O/U 51.5 | Currently 36-19 | On pace for 53-29
Denver is rolling, and a current eight-game winning streak has pushed it to an over projection. The rest of the league has to be concerned with how the Nuggets look.
Rockets: O/U 43.5 | Currently 34-21 | On pace for 50-32
Houston has had a recent dip, but it’s still comfortably on pace for the over. Remember in the preseason, when so many of us wondered if the Rockets could win enough to guarantee a Play-In appearance?
Lakers: O/U 43.5 | Currently 32-20 | On pace for 50-32
Los Angeles traded for Dončić, and this now feels like a completely different season. The Lakers look like an easy over after winning 12 of their last 15.
Grizzlies: O/U 47.5 | Currently 36-18 | On pace for 54-28
I know so many people thought “The Grizzlies are so back” going into this season, but I’m not sure they expected battling for the No. 2 seed.
Thunder: O/U 56.5 | Currently 44-10 | On pace for 67-15
This always seemed like an obvious over to me. They were always destined for 60 or more wins. 🔒
Spurs: O/U 35.5 | Currently 23-29 | On pace for 36-46
This is teetering a little bit, and I’m not confident the Spurs will make the over. But De’Aaron Fox finding some chemistry with his new team would make it an easy over.
I know what you’re wondering: Are there teams that are close to projecting the over?
The Celtics (58.5 o/u, 58 projected), Knicks (54.5 o/u, 54 projected) and Pacers (46.5 o/u, 46 projected) are right on the money for their numbers and projections.
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(Top photo: Jamie Sabau / Getty Images )
