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The Premier League is – finally – back following an international break and a weekend of FA Cup quarter-final action. This upcoming Merseyside derby between Liverpool and Everton has felt like it’s been on the horizon forever. Now, it’s time to go to battle.
Here’s a look at how the markets are gauging this game and the key factors to consider for bettors.
History only suggests one thing: A Liverpool a win
To say Everton’s record at Anfield is extremely poor probably wouldn’t even do it justice. More appropriate adjectives might be abysmal, atrocious or hopeless.
Since 1999, they have claimed victory at their old foe’s ground just once – and perhaps it’s telling that it came in 2021, during the COVID season when the stadium was mostly empty and therefore devoid of the typical Anfield derby day thrum.
Add this historical dominance for the Reds to the fact that in 2024-25, there’s been a substantial gap between the two sides – one is title-bound, the other required a managerial change to scramble away from relegation – and it makes perfect sense for the two teams to be priced up as they are.
Arne Slot’s men are strong favourites, and rightly so. Everton are appropriate long shots, and while 3/1 odds for a draw would be a great price if this game was being played at Goodison Park (where four of the last six meetings have been draws)…it’s at Anfield, where in normal circumstances, Liverpool run out the victors time after time.
The best bet? Early fouls
Merseyside derbies rarely begin in a timid fashion.
With the atmosphere crackling and the players charged up to deliver for the fans, the opening minutes of these rivalry games are often thunderous affairs. Expect both teams to try and assert a physical tone, and in doing so, go into challenges a little more firmly than normal.
A popular market for bettors in these circumstances is cards shown, as it’s easy to picture plenty of overzealous tackles, player spats and arguments. But these days, referees are trying harder and harder to let these spicy affairs flow, and not show too many yellow cards too early, as they’re concerned that it will inevitably lead to reds later on. This adds risk to any bet placed on booking lines.
A different way to approach this is by backing early fouls. Betfair are running a special at 17/20 for each team to commit a foul in the first 10 minutes of the game (00:00 to 09:59 on the game clock). Not only does the occasion lend itself well to this bet, but the stats back it up too: Alexis Mac Allister (69), Idrissa Gueye (63) and Luis Díaz (61) are all in the top 15 for most fouls by Premier League players this season, per PFF FC.
Mohamed Salah’s last Merseyside derby?
If this is to be Salah’s final bout with Everton – and the fact he’s still yet to sign a new contract makes that a very firm possibility – he will no doubt be keen to leave a lasting impression. There’s no better way to do that than to score a goal or two.
The market clearly expects him to have a telling assist; he’s odds-on to score or assist anytime, roughly evens to score anytime, and as short as 8/1 to have three or more goal involvements.
Of course, the Everton rivalry isn’t the only thing powering the belief that Salah will play a decisive role in this match, as he’s chasing personal history on three fronts too. His 27 league goals puts him nine shy of Erling Haaland’s record of 36, meaning an incredible final stretch of the season could see him pass that tally. He also needs just four assists to pass Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne’s joint record of 20.
After dropping off in form ahead of the international break, it’s imperative Liverpool return from it with renewed confidence and vigour. Beating the Toffees at home would be the perfect way to achieve that, and odds are, if the Reds are among the goals, Salah will be at the heart of it.
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(Photo credit: Alex Pantling / Getty Images)