The Los Angeles Dodgers probably sealed Gavin Lux’s fate last week when they signed KBO star infielder Hyeseong Kim to a three-year deal. It became (somewhat) official on Monday, as they traded their 2016 first-round pick to Cincinnati for 2024 draftee Mike Sirota and a competitive balance pick in the 2025 draft.
Lux hasn’t quite lived up to expectations, but he’s had a solid career when healthy, with production valued at 5.5 fWAR/7.3 bWAR; I’m more inclined to buy the FanGraphs value, as their method uses a better defensive metric, and it lines up with his Statcast defensive valuation of minus-4 Outs Above Average. He’s actually second among true 2016 first-round picks (of which there were just 23) by fWAR, behind only Cal Quantrill; if we include the 11 compensatory picks after the first round, Lux ranks fourth behind now-former teammate Will Smith and Cole Ragans. (That draft has been among the worst this century, at least for the first round; Smith is the only player drafted among the top 50 picks to reach 10 WAR so far. Sometimes a draft that looks bad on draft day turns out to be even worse.) He did miss all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in spring training, returning to play a full season in 2024.
I don’t see a path to regular playing time for Lux, but he’s a great option as a utility infielder who can spell Matt McLain at second base since McLain missed all of 2024 due to labrum surgery on his non-throwing shoulder and could end up missing time here and there if he reaggravates it. Lux is a natural shortstop but started to have trouble with his throws while he was in the minors, and when that popped up again last spring as the Dodgers tried to make him their everyday shortstop, they moved him to second base for the entire season. Given that history of throwing issues — mostly accuracy, rather than anything to do with arm strength — he’s not likely to be more than the backup to Elly De La Cruz at shortstop and almost certainly can’t be more than an emergency option at third.
However, Lux is an above-average hitter against right-handed pitching and can move around to a few spots (second, left, maybe short and center if needed) while freeing up some other players to play other positions — such as McLain moving to third in some games, for one example. The Reds got nothing from third base, first base, left field or DH last year, so adding an above-average platoon bat is a net positive, and Lux can either let them move other guys into those weak spots or just be a platoon DH himself.
The Dodgers didn’t need Lux now that they’ve signed Kim, a star in Korea who makes contact at extremely high rates but puts the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time. The Dodgers have had a ton of success at getting guys to elevate the ball more, including Will Smith, Chris Taylor, and Max Muncy, so I’ll be 0 percent surprised if Kim starts hitting the ball in the air more this year and generates more power. He’s a solid defender and likely to hit for a high average as it is, so another half-grade of power probably makes him an average regular. Mookie Betts isn’t going anywhere, so the Dodgers’ middle infield was set, leaving no room at the inn for Lux.
Mike Sirota hit .298/.473/.513 with seven homers and 19 steals for Northeastern in 2024. (Greg M. Cooper / Associated Press)
Los Angeles gets the Reds’ third-round pick from 2024, outfielder Mike Sirota, and what is currently the 37th overall pick in the 2025 draft, and I’m not sure which is more valuable. Sirota came out of the summer of 2023 with the first-round label on him, but the label fell off as he had an absolutely miserable start to his year and didn’t start performing until early to mid-April, by which point teams had largely moved on. As a sophomore, he hit .346/.472/.678 for Northeastern, then hit well on the Cape in a week-plus, showing an advanced approach and enough athleticism to both project further improvement and to think he could stay in center. Despite the horrendous start to his junior year, he did start to look like his previous self in the last few weeks of the college season. The Reds took a shot that he was a buy-low guy in the third round, especially since he had solid batted-ball data that was better than his performance. It’s possible that the Dodgers just acquired a first-round talent here, and I would at least bet on Sirota to reach the majors quickly even if it’s as an extra outfielder.
That additional draft pick is in the competitive balance A round — those competitive balance picks are the only ones that the CBA allows teams to trade — and its ultimate position could shift slightly. The 37th pick last year carried a bonus pool allotment of about $2.5 million, and plenty of high-ceiling high school players were still on the board at that pick, along with at least two college players I thought were first-round talents. The Dodgers have drafted very well since Billy Gasparino took over as scouting director, and if I were running that team, I’d always be trying to find ways to give him and his staff more picks and bonus pool money to play with.
I know it’s not the most exciting answer, but I like the trade for both sides. Sirota could turn out to be a star, of course, but the probability of that right now isn’t terribly high — he had the bad spring I noted above and didn’t play after signing, so he hasn’t had a chance to increase his perceived value yet. The extra draft pick has value too, of course. Lux, however, has value to the Reds right now, even if it’s only as a part-time DH and second baseman who plays against righties. He produced 2.7 fWAR in 2022, then 1.5 last year; even if the Reds use him at multiple spots, a 1.5-win upgrade is huge for them given how many positions were below replacement level for them in 2024. It’s the kind of small move that can make a huge difference for a team operating with a low payroll, and while the cost was real, the Reds are trying to win now and this is exactly the kind of move they should be making.
As an aside, since I am contractually obligated to answer the question “But how does this affect the Yankees?” whenever possible, Lux did seem like an easy fit for the Bombers at second base, since they let Gleyber Torres leave as a free agent, and the prospect they supposedly were going to give a shot at the job, Caleb Durbin, is now a Brewer. The Yankees didn’t have a draft pick to trade if that’s what the Dodgers really wanted here, and it’s possible they just weren’t that interested. There’s only one clear everyday middle infielder left on the free-agent market, Ha-Seong Kim, and he’s not going to be ready to start the season after October shoulder surgery; and one clear everyday third baseman, Alex Bregman, who I assume is beyond their willingness to spend after they went big for Juan Soto before signing Max Fried. On the trade market, Bo Bichette is in some sort of quantum superstate where he is both available and unavailable in trade until someone asks. Alec Bohm’s name has come up in rumors, and he could play third with Jazz Chisholm at second. It’s also possible the Yankees will see if either of the Oswaldos, Peraza or Cabrera, can win the second- or third-base job, with Jazz manning the other spot. Their options are at least dwindling.
(Photo: Harry How / Getty Images)
