Without question, Vice President Kamala Harris was victorious in Tuesday’s debate. In the face-off against Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump lost his composure, often appearing on the defensive, angry or inflammatory.
Indeed, Harris managed to get under Donald Trump’s skin early on. The sitting vice president attacked Trump early on for his small crowd sizes and called his rallies exhausting and boring. Trump was clearly agitated and thereafter, struggled to recover.
Conversely, Harris handily outperformed any pre-debate expectations, and made a convincing case for herself and her leadership, answering questions on abortion, healthcare and climate change confidentially and tactfully.
However, pre- and post-debate polling suggests that, while voters overwhelmingly recognize that Harris won, it has not translated into commensurate boosts in the vice president’s polling numbers, and thus, is unlikely to have any noticeable impact.
According to the RealClearPolitics tracker, there have been three polls conducted after the debate that can be compared to pre-debate polls, and all three underscore that regardless of the outcome, the debate’s importance must not be overstated.
Put another way, the coming days and weeks may very well mirror the post-Democratic National Convention period, where positive coverage of Harris dominated the media, yet did not drastically separate her from Trump in the polls as the race remained tight.
The New York Post reported one post-debate poll, which showed that, by a 21-point margin (50 percent to 29 percent), voters thought Harris won the debate. But, in terms of whom they supported for president, Harris (50 percent) saw no improvement, whereas Trump (47 percent), gained 1 point from three weeks earlier.
Polling conducted by Reuters/Ipsos revealed nearly identical findings. Slightly more than one-half (53 percent) of voters said Harris won the debate, compared to just 24 percent saying Trump won.
In the race for president however, Harris’ 5-point lead (47 percent to 42 percent) in the Reuters/Ipsos poll is just one point greater than the 4-point lead the vice president had in late August.
Finally, Morning Consult’s tracking poll showed that Harris is also leading Trump by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent), but that is just 2 points better than her 3-point lead in pre-debate polling.
Taken together, early polling following the first (and likely only) presidential debate strongly suggests that the candidates did not do much to change their fortunes in either direction or shake up what figures to be an extremely close race.
This is not to take anything away from Harris, who displayed an impressive ability to frustrate Trump and overcome his brash, often off-topic attacks.
That said, debates are usually not the factor that decides an election, particularly in our hyper-polarized political environment.
Among registered voters who say they are “definitely” voting in November’s election, roughly three-quarters (73 percent) said the debate would have virtually no impact on their choice of candidate, per Marist polling.
Moreover, the debate did not take place in a vacuum. Kamala Harris is still vice president within an administration that has just a 40 percent approval rating according to New York Times-Siena polling.
In that same vein, while Trump missed clear opportunities to tie Harris to the current administration, he did find his footing in his closing statement. The issues Trump spoke to — geopolitical chaos, economic uncertainty and concerns over immigration and crime — have not gone away.
To that end, more than 6 in 10 (62 percent) Americans — including 69 percent of independents — believe the country is on the wrong track, per Economist/YouGov polling. One debate will do little to dislodge those feelings, particularly if voters decide that issues and policies — rather than personalities — are paramount in how they vote.
Ultimately, the data highlights the fact that Harris’s debate performance, while impressive, is unlikely to drastically turn the tides in her favor. Similarly, it did little to hurt Trump, as his base is deeply loyal.
The minimal movement in the polls, despite what many consider a lopsided performance, suggests that the presidential campaign will be neck-and-neck throughout the fall, with every indication that it will be even closer than 2020’s, which famously came down to roughly 100,000 votes in just a handful of states.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research. His latest book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”
