The Juan Soto free-agent frenzy is underway, with the 26-year-old outfielder serving as the focal point of several conversations at baseball’s general managers’ meetings in San Antonio.
The commotion is understandable given he’s the No. 1 consensus free agent and already on a Hall of Fame trajectory with one World Series ring and two appearances. Soto is the first star position player to enter free agency heading into his age-26 season since Bryce Harper and Manny Machado six years ago. And as such he figures to have a profound impact on the team that signs him.
Soto hit .288 last season with the Yankees, launching 41 home runs (fourth in MLB), an recording an on-base percentage of .419 (second) and a slugging percentage of .569 (fourth). He also was fourth in wins above replacement (WAR) with 8.1. That latter number is significant for bookmakers as well, given Soto will move the win total for whichever team signs him.
“He’s the third-most valuable position player in baseball, behind Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge,” Halvor Egeland, a trader at BetMGM, told The Athletic. “He protects other guys in the lineup, takes a ton of pitches and is always on base. He’s one of the few guys that make alarms go off when he comes out of the lineup.”
Soto is one of the few players who can single-handedly change a team’s season win total and World Series odds. Just how much varies among bookmakers, but Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, said he believes Soto could be worth “seven to eight wins on a season win total on the high side.” Other oddsmakers thought two to three games was probably the max on a season win total for his future team.
Sportsbooks have already released odds on Soto’s next destination, with the Yankees listed as the current favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook at -145. They are followed by the New York Mets (+180) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200). DraftKings has 11 teams listed, but bettors can also bet on The Field at 12-1 odds. For comparison, BetMGM (available only in Ontario, Canada) set their odds at -120 for the Yankees, followed by +150 for the Mets and +850 for the Dodgers.
“We opened the Yankees a little higher, about a -220 favorite,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “The Mets were +380, but it’s come down. Those are the two teams that are getting the most action. The Mets are the team with the most bets and the most dollars, but The Field is our biggest hazard right now.”
Avello said he understood the logic fueling the field betting, a group that includes both World Series teams from 2023. “Houston could be in the mix,” he said. “Arizona could be in the mix because a guy like [Soto] could put them over the top. The Texas Rangers is another team we don’t have listed.”
So just how much could Soto help his potential suitors? Here’s how oddsmakers see the young superstar potentially impacting some of the top teams listed in The Athletic’s Juan Soto Free Agency Tiers in terms of World Series odds and how many games he would be worth toward their win totals.
The Real Contenders
Odds as of Nov. 8.
New York Yankees (-145)
With the Yankees coming up short in the World Series this season against the Dodgers, it’s apparent that a gap still exists between the two teams, which means the Yankees can’t afford to lose Soto.
“He’s happy there and I think he probably was very content playing there,” Avello said. “I believe he’d like to go back because he thinks they’re a contender. He’s won a World Series with Washington, but being so young, he wants to win every year. The Yankees are a spot he wants to be. The question is, how much will they pay?”
Egeland also noted how the Yanks’ retaining Soto feels more vital after the World Series loss.
“There’s a pretty visual gap between them and the Dodgers,” Egeland said. “If they were to lose him, futures-wise, they’re probably still the best team in the AL but may go from +800 to +950. Smaller move up if he went back there.”
New York Mets (+180)
After a surprise run to the NLCS, the Mets have a decision to make on free agent first baseman Pete Alonso, along with Sean Manaea and several other pitchers. The belief is that the deep-pocketed Mets are going to spend this offseason, but can they lure Soto to Queens from the Bronx? The efforts are already underway, as Thursday The Athletic reported Mets owner Steve Cohen will fly to California to visit Soto.
“The Mets are an interesting one because they’re going to spend money this offseason even if it’s not Soto,” Egeland said. “They’re +1400 to win the World Series, probably down to +1200 if they get Soto, but that’s probably it. We’re already factoring in that they’re going to sign free agents even if they don’t get him.”
Other oddsmakers thought the move could be even more pronounced for the Mets.
“I think it would shift things in the NL East,” Gable said. “If the Mets land someone like Soto, you’re probably going to look at them as a favorite to win the NL East. I think it could shift the balance of power in the division.”
Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200)
The winners of the 2024 World Series, the Dodgers will likely be better next season simply because Shohei Ohtani should be able to pitch again, not to mention several other starting pitchers who missed the postseason with injuries. They have a few free-agent decisions but plenty of money to spend and likely plenty of players who want to play there.
“The Dodgers don’t necessarily need him,” Gable noted. “But I think they will be in the hunt. Would he add that many wins to a Dodgers season win total? Probably not.
“I’d just throw my hands up if they do that. [They’re] +400 now, we can’t go much shorter than +300. Super-team gets thrown out a lot, but that’s as much of a super-team as it possibly gets. The win total would be around 99-100 with Soto, but they should be a better team already [even if they don’t get him].”
MLB front office execs are already maneuvering just a week into November.
What are the goals for each team’s braintrust? Which players are they interested in?@JimBowdenGM has intel ⤵️https://t.co/n9f9YoxBTn pic.twitter.com/LlE3vooCEu
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 7, 2024
The Other Guys
Chicago Cubs (+1800)
Avello: “The Cubs certainly have a lot of money and had a successful year, but they’re a player or two away from being in contention. They could be in the mix. I’m not sure I see Soto with a Cubs uniform on.”
Gable noted that adding Soto would positively impact Chicago’s win total by 5.5 to 6 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays (+2000)
Gable: “I wouldn’t count the Blue Jays out, either. They were aggressive on Ohtani and I’d expect them to be in on Soto as well. You add him to Toronto, he may add 5.5-6 games to the win total for the Blue Jays.”
San Francisco Giants (+2000)
Gable: “A team like the Giants that was in the running for Judge and Harper really wants to become relevant and compete with the Padres and Dodgers. I do anticipate them being aggressive.”
Gable went on to note that Soto would be worth 5.5 to 6 wins toward San Francisco’s win total.
(Photo of Juan Soto: Harry How / Getty Images)
