So this coming season probably won’t be the last dance of the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty, after all.
Mike Dunleavy Jr., Joe Lacob and the rest of the Warriors’ front office did a lot of things over the last few weeks, and clearly are plotting a few more, on many different levels. But the most significant overall effect is that they’ve actually broken this up into multiple last dances and farewell moments.
Klay Thompson’s came over the last few months of last season, Bob Myers’ came a year earlier and Stephen Curry’s, Draymond Green’s and Steve Kerr’s goodbyes are yet to come. It won’t occur all at once, the way it was infamously staged and documented for the Chicago Bulls a quarter century ago; the Warriors’ version is all staggered and it already has started happening, all the way back to July 2019, when everybody experienced the exits of Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.
Which makes sense. Which is a lot less dramatic. Which will take a lot of time and a lot of contemplation to fully assess. Which theoretically — very theoretically — might give the Warriors time to generate a new era of success while they still have a few of the players who set the foundation for the last one.
Basically, Dunleavy & Co. have decided to make 2024-25 a bridge/reset/reach-out season. It might be a short bridge back to top-level contention if the Warriors can land Lauri Markkanen from the Utah Jazz, though there’s no certainty they ever will. It could be a long bridge if Curry remains as great as ever into the late 2020s.
But the bigger picture is easy to see when you step back a bit and focus on the Warriors’ major numbers this offseason.
First, the ages: Dunleavy moved on from 39-year-old Chris Paul and 34-year-old Klay Thompson and added 26-year-old De’Anthony Melton, 26-year-old Lindy Waters III, 30-year-old Kyle Anderson and 31-year-old Buddy Hield.
Now, the payroll: Dunleavy subtracted about $40 million from the Warriors’ previous payroll number in this endeavor, which took them out of the punitive apron levels and briefly even below the luxury-tax line and allowed them to use salary-cap tools that were off-limits to them for years while they were so far into the tax.
The immediate effect was that the Warriors made a pedal-down attempt to trade for Paul George in early July that would not have been possible if they had already committed to bringing back Klay and CP3. Then, after the L.A. Clippers turned down variations of Warriors offers that included multiple first-round picks and Andrew Wiggins or possibly Jonathan Kuminga or Moses Moody, Dunleavy had the flexibility to swiftly move to talks with the Jazz about Markkanen that likely include many of the same offered elements.
So the Warriors definitely are not exactly the same as they were to end last season; they don’t have Klay’s aura or history of huge performances, but they are younger, cheaper and faster than they were when they were bounced out of the Play-In Tournament by Sacramento. The Warriors are not wholly different, either. Curry is still their North Star. Draymond is the right-hand man. Kerr’s system and sensibility prevail. They don’t come close to measuring up against the Western Conference’s elite teams. But there is a chance that the Warriors could do a whole lot more, if not later this summer than perhaps by next February’s trade deadline.
What are the other themes to this offseason? Let’s take a look …
Full arrival of the Dunleavy era
A little more than a year into his general-manager tenure, Dunleavy has now changed over exactly half of the roster — there are seven remaining players from the end of the 2022-23 season (Curry, Draymond, Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II, Kuminga, Moody) and seven new ones added since then (Brandin Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Melton, Anderson, Hield, Waters, Quinten Post/somebody-else-in-the-14th-roster-spot).
The most important structural change happened last year, when Dunleavy moved Jordan Poole’s long-term contract (and Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Ryan Rollins) for CP3’s short-term deal and set up this offseason’s financial elasticity.
And then came this offseason’s big emotional decision to not fully engage Klay on a long-term contract while the Warriors explored other moves, which seemed to set up or even semi-encourage Klay’s departure for a three-year deal with the Dallas Mavericks.
The decision to let Klay Thompson go signaled the full arrival of the Mike Dunleavy Jr. era as the Warriors’ general manager. (Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
Maybe Myers would’ve done the same thing in exactly the same way. Maybe not. But it was Dunleavy, who was traded a total of three times during his long NBA career, who was at the helm when the idea of moving on without Klay went, in a matter of a few weeks, from improbable for the Warriors to survivable to workable to perhaps preferable.
What they’ve got now:
Bigs
Draymond
Jackson-Davis
Looney
Combo forwards
Kuminga
* Anderson
Wings
Wiggins
Moody
* Waters
* Hield
Payton
Guards
Curry
Podziemski
* Melton
Possible 14th roster spot/two-way contracts
Gui Santos
Lester Quinones
Usman Garuba
Jerome Robinson
* Reece Beekman
* Post
(* = newly acquired player)
OUT: Klay, CP3, Dario Šarić, possibly Quinones
IN: Melton, Anderson, Hield, Waters, possibly Post and Beekman
What’s the theme of the MDJ era so far? I’d say it starts and ends with the next point …
Setting up the big next move
So far, Dunleavy’s tenure is built around large moves:
— The Poole-for-CP3 money wash;
— Letting Klay and CP3 go to dump even more money;
— And then … ?
Let’s just spell it out: By letting Klay and CP3 go, the Warriors dropped out of the first and second aprons and all the way out of the tax, which opened up a chance for them to use the nontaxpayer midlevel exception for the first time in years. That’s how they got Melton.
Then the Warriors were part of the sign-and-trade deal that sent Klay to Dallas (and got Klay a little more money), which allowed the Warriors to use that money to land Anderson and Hield for multiyear deals.
That took the Warriors back over the luxury-tax line, but by staying out of the second apron, they can aggregate salaries in a trade, which, of course, is the only way they can keep on chasing Markkanen.
Also, the Warriors can trade their 2025 first-round pick now that the 2024 draft has passed. Or they can trade their 2026 pick (but not both years). And as long as they’re not trading consecutive picks, the Warriors also can put their 2027 or 2028 first-rounders into the deal. They owe their 2030 first-round pick to Washington (in the Poole trade), protected 1-20, but they can trade the pick conditional to it falling within the protection.
Is a big swing coming for the Warriors? They have reported interest in Utah’s Lauri Markkanen, an All-Star in 2022-23. (Alex Goodlett / Getty Images)
Does that all sound complicated? Yes, it does. If they get Markkanen, it could be the most complicated Warriors deal since Myers acquired Iguodala in a massive, multi-team sign-and-trade in July 2013. And getting Markkanen, if it happens, would remind me, of all other Warriors deals, of that Iguodala move — a perfect veteran acquisition to pair with the rest of the Warriors’ roster, the way Iguodala fit so perfectly with the then-young Warriors core. Kind of bookend adds for the Curry era, if the Warriors can pull it off.
But will the Warriors have to give up Podziemski and/or Kuminga to do it? Would they do that? I doubt they’d want to give up either, and I’m almost positive they wouldn’t give up both, even for Markkanen, if they’re already giving up three or four picks. But we’ll have to wait and see. The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Monday morning that the Warriors and Jazz have had talks about a package involving Moody and multiple future first-round picks, but the Jazz want to add Kuminga and Podziemski into the deal.
Given that Kuminga is eligible for his rookie contract extension, and likely would be asking for something more (and perhaps substantially more) than the $123 million Poole got two years ago, I think Podziemski actually might be more valuable as a trade asset right now. And more valuable to the Warriors, period.
So who’s taking Klay’s place in the starting lineup and rotation?
Klay really wasn’t a shooting guard once he came back from those two devastating leg injuries, but the Warriors’ starting shooting guard spot, with Klay gone, is absolutely going to be a much-watched role this season.
Podziemski, if he’s still on the roster at the start of the season, very likely will get the first shot at it — he supplanted Klay in the two-guard rotation last season, anyway; he started 28 games as a rookie and has more than proved himself to Kerr. But for all the confidence and skill Podziemski showed last season, and the high level he’s displayed this summer practicing with the Select Team and in a few Summer League games, he’s obviously not going to duplicate everything Klay gave them for years.
It will be shooting-guard-by-committee: Wiggins almost certainly will defend the opponents’ best perimeter players, as he has for the last several years; Melton will get large minutes as potentially one of the Warriors’ more versatile guard options; Hield will get a lot of second-unit shots; Waters isn’t a bad sixth-guard option.
Sometimes, that will give the Warriors more than they got from Klay’s 30 minutes, 14.7 shots and 17.9 points a game last season, certainly on the defensive side. Sometimes, it won’t, especially when defenses don’t have to worry about chasing around the guy who once scored 37 points in a quarter.
Also, the success of this tradeoff largely depends on Melton, and if he’s good this season, it’s very possible that the Warriors won’t be able to retain him as an unrestricted free agent next season. So the Warriors’ net gain, if there is one, might not be tremendous.
But what will Klay’s production be like this season? Next season? The season after that?
The money situation
The Warriors are back over the luxury-tax line, but only barely. In fact, they’re in the new NBA ownership sweet spot: Just over the $170.8 million tax limit and just under the first apron line of $178.1 million, which gives teams the maneuverability to go up or down, but only slightly.
What the new temperance means for the future: The Warriors didn’t do all this and take the hit for losing Klay in order to just get themselves right back into Apron Land anytime soon. Unless it’s for a massive upgrade. Even then, they’re in solid position to make a big move without adding major immediate dollars. And no, Zach LaVine isn’t a massive enough talent upgrade to account for his remaining $138 million over the next three seasons.
The emergence of Brandin Podziemski will likely make the Warriors hesitant to include him in any trade offers. (John Hefti / USA Today)
Who’s the backup point guard?
Maybe this is where the true Podziemski elevation happens. He can get time alongside Curry as a playmaking two and then into the point-guard role for those crucial seven or eight minutes of Curry rest each half.
That’s the Livingston role during the dynasty. Or CP3’s role last season, which he mostly fulfilled but he also struggled next to Curry and Klay when the Warriors were matched up against longer, younger guards and wings. Can Podziemski run the offense for long stretches? Can he defend top 2s? Will he shoot more? This summer has been a good proving ground, but let’s see what happens in training camp, preseason and the regular season.
And if the Warriors have to give up Podziemski to land Markkanen, I really don’t know who the backup point guard would be. (Another reason why the Warriors are going to be very reluctant to put Podziemski into any offer.)
Where’s Kuminga in all this?
Good question. I think that’s one issue that the Warriors will continue to analyze going into the next few weeks and, if he’s not traded, into training camp.
Kuminga’s role is probably directly tied to the center spot. Since Kuminga likely isn’t a small forward, at least not this season, he has to play power forward, and minutes there are not abundant unless Draymond is playing center. And maybe that’s the best scenario: Draymond as the starting 5 with TJD and Looney behind him. And we’ll see if the Warriors add Markkanen.
That leaves power forward open for Kuminga, with Draymond getting some minutes there when other centers are in the game or when Kerr feels he needs more backline size. And if the Warriors get Markkanen, he fits with either Draymond or Kuminga at the 4. And Markkanen is such a good shooter that it isn’t out of the question that the Warriors could go big across the line with Markkanen, Draymond, Kuminga and Wiggins, with Curry as the only guy under 6-foot-6 in the starting unit.
I think the Warriors really like thinking about that. Which is an example of why they wouldn’t necessarily want to put Kuminga into that deal, either.
The big-picture Curry equation
The 2024-25 season isn’t Curry’s last dance. It was never going to be his last dance. Have you seen him bouncing around with Team USA this summer? He’s not on his last legs. Not even close.
So yes, there was a disturbance in the Warriors’ universe when Curry recently answered Yahoo’s Vincent Goodwill’s question about the future by saying he wants to be a Warrior for life, but “it is a wild environment, and things change quickly.”
It’s up to the Warriors — it’s up to Dunleavy and Lacob — to make sure things with the Warriors don’t change quickly or problematically enough for Curry to start thinking about any other town, any other team or any other career path. As long as Curry has hope that this team can win or that it has enough elements to make the moves that will allow it to win, I believe he will want to stay. Much of that was true last season, too, and things didn’t turn out that way. But the Warriors have more paths out of this now than they had a year ago, or two years ago, and I think Curry is the kind of superstar who will embrace the possibilities of all this.
GO DEEPER
The latest on the Warriors’ offseason and a patient Lauri Markkanen chase
(Top photo of Stephen Curry and Brandin Podziemski: Nathaniel S. Butler / NBAE via Getty Images)
