The arrival of Niclas Fullkrug was long overdue. Although West Ham United’s track record in signing strikers makes for grim reading, there is confidence that their new marksman will not fail like many of his predecessors.
Earlier this month, Fullkrug joined West Ham from Borussia Dortmund for £27million ($34.4m) on a four-year deal. In a window that has seen the addition of eight players, the 31-year-old’s arrival is arguably the most important. It is a position that saw Tim Steidten, the club’s technical director, and new head coach Julen Lopetegui initially identify Fullkrug, Jhon Duran of Aston Villa and Sevilla’s Youssef En-Nesyri. With Duran staying put and En-Nesyri signing for Fenerbahce, Fullkrug became the priority.
The Germany international canvassed the opinions of ex-West Ham players Sebastien Haller and Thilo Kehrer before joining. Fullkrug is 31, so is not a signing who can be afforded years to adapt, but he has proven he is a top-level goalscorer in recent seasons.
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In the 2022-23 campaign, with Werder Bremen. he finished joint top-scorer in the Bundesliga with 16 goals. It earned him a move to Dortmund and, in his sole season there, he scored 16 goals in 46 appearances, helping them reach the Champions League final.
While he is not the promising young forward West Ham initially set out to sign, he is the polished front man they need and will battle it out with Michail Antonio to be the focal point of Lopetegui’s attack in a 4-2-3-1 system. He has played the majority of his career as a lone striker, so should have no issues with the demands made of him.
“We added Fullkrug because he is a very good player,” said Lopetegui. “He is a very natural player. There is his height (6ft 2in/189cm), his personality. He will help us a lot in all of our challenges — on the pitch and off it.”
Fullkrug is 31 but has a proven pedigree (Angel Martinez/Getty Images)
Fullkrug made his debut as a second-half substitute in last weekend’s 2-1 defeat against Aston Villa and will be pushing to make his first start away to Crystal Palace.
He is a traditional No 9, known for his physical presence and aerial dominance. He contested an average of 7.3 aerial duels per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga last season — the 13th-most of any player in the division — while Antonio contested 4.6 per game at a slightly lower success rate (38.4 per cent vs 40.7 per cent).
In the air, Fullkrug is a dependable out-ball and will give West Ham the option to go direct more frequently.
The German is a central presence, less likely to run into channels and hold up the ball as much as Antonio. His shot map from the Bundesliga last season shows that he likes to stay within the width of the posts, where he uses his physique to muscle his way into dangerous goalscoring positions.
He attempted plenty of shots around the six-yard line and 45 per cent of those efforts were with his head.
Using smarterscout, an analytics company that breaks down elements of a footballer’s game to create ratings from 1-99 based on advanced metrics, we can directly compare Fullkrug and Antonio from last season.
One difference that jumps out instantly is that Antonio is more likely to move the ball forward, as illustrated by his high progressive passing score of 84. Fullkrug is more about linking the play — holding up the ball and making sideways or backward passes to keep attacking moves flowing.
Fullkrug is statistically more intense without the ball, his score of 74 outscoring Antonio’s 52 — this shows how often the player is the most relevant defender when his side are out of possession. The higher the number, the more it shows the player to be actively applying pressure and making defensive actions.
Meanwhile, his score of 53 for receptions in the opposition’s box points to him being more of a fixed central presence.
In his interview with West Ham’s in-house media, Fullkrug explained what he will bring.
“His (Lopetegui) playing style is important and I am confident that under him I will be able to perform at my best and score lots of goals,” said Fullkrug. “I have a very good feeling — I’m strong, fit and in shape — and I just want to get out there and start playing.
“I need assists too. I’m not a guy who will dribble past five players.
“I am not only a strong player but I also like to come into the No 10 position towards the ball. I am capable with both feet and have good aerial ability. These are my strengths.”
Fullkrug’s ability to hold up the ball would complement Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus, as referenced in The Athletic’s transfer rating below.
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Niclas Fullkrug to West Ham: The Athletic 500 transfer ratings
The forward amassed 10 assists for Dortmund last season and was a regular provider at Werder Bremen, Hannover and Nuremberg too. Even more significantly, it has been 16 months since Fullkrug last sustained an injury: a contributing factor behind his ability to develop into a late bloomer.
There was a point in his career when he could not play without pain. Between 2018 and 2021, the forward missed 61 matches, with the most significant injury being a ruptured anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). From 2021 onwards, only a calf and niggling knee injury have caused Fullkrug to miss games.
When the forward recovered from his ACL injury, he scored six goals across 19 league appearances for Werder Bremen in the 2020-21 season but could not save them from relegation. The following campaign, Fullkrug scored 19 league goals, the most he has managed in a season, to help his side bounce back to Germany’s top flight.
He was making up for lost time — can Fullkrug continue that at West Ham? Tony Cottee, a former West Ham forward, thinks he can.
“I like the look of him and I back him to do well,” Cottee tells The Athletic. “He caught my eye during the Euros and he’s shown he’s able to get better with age. Look at Jamie Vardy: he scored against Tottenham (on Monday) and he’s 37. Sometimes, forwards peak towards the end of their careers and that’s the case for Fullkrug.
“Fullkrug is a goalscorer and he will get the service from Kudus, Lucas Paqueta and Bowen. The only issue I have is, will Fullkrug still be the main striker for West Ham in five years? Fullkrug, Antonio and Danny Ings are all in their thirties. Jhon Duran would have been a good long-term investment but they couldn’t get a deal done. But in the short-term, Fullkrug is a good signing and he should have the mindset of wanting to be the main man for Lopetegui.”
Lopetegui and Steidten have spent big on an ageing forward — they and the West Ham fans will hope he becomes the seasoned No 9 they have lacked in their modern history.
(Top photo: Niclas Fullkrug and Michail Antonio; Angel Martinez/Getty Images)
