The Ottawa Senators are back to their winning ways. Considering how packed the Eastern Conference wild-card standings are, it couldn’t have come at a better time. Ottawa’s win over the New Jersey Devils on Sunday was the team’s fifth in six games. The Senators are one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for third place in the Atlantic Division. If they beat the New York Rangers on Tuesday, coupled with a Tampa Bay loss to Montreal, they’d jump right into that third-place spot.
As the winning continues, however, a cold streak remains for one of Ottawa’s best players.
Senators captain Brady Tkachuk has gone seven games without a point, his longest streak since an eight-game drought in his rookie season. It hasn’t rung as many alarm bells because the Senators have been winning, but it’s fair to wonder about a focal point of the Senators’ offence (and their offence as a whole). Despite ranking 22nd in the league in goals and having the third-worst goals-per-game rate since mid-November, GM Steve Staios openly expressed confidence in his offence during his midseason address earlier this month.
As for Tkachuk, he isn’t letting the drought worry him.
“We’ve had a kind of a good record in that stretch,” Tkachuk said last week when he hadn’t scored in five games. “For me, the most important thing is winning and we’ll do whatever it takes to win. Sometimes that doesn’t show up on the stats. I know I’m confident in myself that it’s just going to happen eventually. So, I’m not gonna stress and worry about it. Just got to focus on whatever I can do to help the team win.”
Has Tkachuk done his part to help the Senators win? It’s a case-by-case situation, but it’s been more help than harm.
Tkachuk’s on-ice game log at 5-on-5
|
Date
|
Shots
|
CF%
|
xGF%
|
HDCF%
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 9 vs. BUF |
4 |
51.85 |
33.80 |
25.00 |
|
Jan. 11 vs. PIT |
2 |
17.39 |
21.94 |
25.00 |
|
Jan. 12 vs. DAL |
2 |
48.48 |
61.16 |
71.43 |
|
Jan. 14 vs. NYI |
2 |
51.35 |
49.94 |
60.00 |
|
Jan. 16 vs. WSH |
5 |
50.00 |
50.10 |
25.00 |
|
Jan. 18 vs. BOS |
8 |
72.22 |
86.07 |
66.67 |
|
Jan. 19 vs. NJD |
1 |
46.15 |
51.88 |
50.00 |
Tkachuk’s Corsi rating at five-on-five has dipped below 50 percent thrice during the seven-game stretch. His expected-goals rate and high-danger chance rate have also fallen below the halfway mark three times. Tkachuk even had one of his most active games against the Boston Bruins over the weekend with a 72.22 Corsi rate and a season-best expected goals percentage of 86.07, according to Natural Stat Trick. He fired eight shots on target, the third-most he’s had all season, in a comeback win his team needed.
The Senators’ next game, a 2-1 win over the Devils, was tough for all involved considering the travel and quick turnaround — they played at 1 p.m. Sunday in New Jersey after their 6-5 shootout win at home over Boston Saturday night — but Tkachuk finished with just one shot on goal. And his 46.15 Corsi rate wasn’t even at its worst — that came during a game you’d least expect. In the Senators’ 5-0 drubbing of the Pittsburgh Penguins two weekends ago, Tkachuk had a 17.39 Corsi rating at five-on-five, posted a 0.85 expected goals-against rate (his sixth-worst rate of the season) and was held to two shots on goal while only playing a shade under 15 minutes the entire game.
Tkachuk has rebounded since, at least defensively. His defensive metrics are trending to be better than in recent seasons. According to Evolving-Hockey, his defensive rating is currently a plus-2. Tkachuk hasn’t finished a season above zero in defensive rating since his rookie year.
A commitment to defence has been a central theme for the Senators, not just Tkachuk, under new head coach Travis Green. The Senators have the sixth-best goals-against rate in the league, a 180-degree turn from the fifth-worst in the league last season.
It’s a message Tkachuk seems to get.
“I think I’d give up any amount of points, just if it results in winning,” Tkachuk said. “I think that’s just a sacrifice that not just me, but a lot of guys in this room are willing to make. And it kind of shows with the way we’re playing that now in the last stretch of games. We’ve been really solid defensively.”
Fortunately in the absence of Tkachuk’s offence, his teammates have stepped up — whether it’s points from their best players, occasional contributions from Adam Gaudette, Zack Ostapchuk’s first-ever goal or two goals from defenceman Artem Zub in the last week.
Sens’ production over last 7 games
Tkachuk’s net-front presence and ability to win puck battles as a bigger, physical player should lead to that point drought snapping sooner than later. But more offence is needed from him and the Senators at five-on-five. Tkachuk, notably, hasn’t picked up a point at five-on-five in his last nine games, part of a periodic problem that has struck the team throughout the season.
But the Senators, for now, are doing enough to win games. And if Tkachuk continues to generate shots on net, he’ll be back in the points column soon.
“When the puck starts getting to the net more and we continue our defensive play, that will be even more of a recipe for success,” Tkachuk said.
All stats from Hockey Reference, Evolving-Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
(Photo: Rich Graessle / NHLI via Getty Images)
