The Miami Heat (29-39) have officially reached the lowest point of Erik Spoelstra’s long tenure, but they’re still optimistic about their remaining tomorrows — however many remain in their season.
Miami’s eight-game losing streak is its longest since March 2008, when the team endured a 15-win campaign in Pat Riley’s last season on the sidelines. The Heat sitting 10th in the Eastern Conference entering Tuesday, which is the team’s lowest conference positioning this late in the season since 2018-19.
Barring an even more extensive collapse, the Heat will still at least make an appearance in the Play-In Tournament (they are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Toronto Raptors), but each defeat undermines any once-glowing optimism about even an abbreviated playoff run. Team captain Bam Adebayo, however, remains steadfast in ensuring that his team competes in any remaining games on the schedule.
“Nah, I’m gonna keep willing that,” Adebayo told the media after Monday’s loss to the New York Knicks. “I don’t care. When we step out there, we’re going to compete. Now, (as) far as the games and the losses, you take that game by game. But every night I step on that court, I’m gonna make sure I play hard, and everybody else do.”
No matter how this season finishes for Miami, it must go back to the drawing board this summer to retool around Adebayo and first-time All-Star Tyler Herro alongside Spoelstra, who signed an eight-year, $120 million contract extension last year. The franchise’s most pivotal bones are in place, but what else must be done to cease its losing streak and eventually raise its long-term floor?
Rim protection must be better
Defense is always Miami’s calling card, but Adebayo has routinely been critical of the Heat consistently yielding easy points, which he cites as a catalyst to this season’s pattern of blown double-digit leads. Thus far, the Heat rank 14th in points allowed in the paint, on pace for their lowest ranking since 2016-17 (18th).
“We’re letting people score. That should never be a Miami Heat team,” Adebayo said. “We’ve gotta guard our yard. Like I’ve said, [when] we get stops and run in transition, we’re a hard team to beat. [If] we’re just letting dudes score, it’s gonna be hard for us to win.”
A key variable to solving that issue — both in the interim and long term — is rookie center Kel’el Ware, whose spot in the rotation has fluctuated in recent weeks after getting subtle Rookie of the Year consideration. The upside of Ware’s promise is apparent. He’s a 7-footer with floor-spacing chops, viability as a vertical threat on lobs and can block shots better than any Heat player in about a decade, but he’s still adjusting to the speed of the NBA and consistently using his motor.
The early returns of Ware playing alongside Adebayo proved promising, but Miami has a minus-6.6 net rating since Feb. 4 when the duo have played together and a defensive rating of 109.1. Prior to that, the Heat outscored opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions in those situations.
In the long term, the Heat will need to better protect the paint, which will be most key to Ware sharing minutes alongside Adebayo. According to Synergy Sports, Miami is allowing 1.42 points per shot at the rim this season, ahead of only the New Orleans Pelicans and Philadelphia 76ers. Maybe Ware could benefit from an offseason of anticipating consistent minutes, but Miami fixing its interior defense begins with him further actualizing his enticing potential.
Better jump-shooting, pace
Scoring points remains important too. That’s been the crux of the Heat’s struggles in recent months. Trading Jimmy Butler left an obvious void, but Miami does still lean on Herro, Adebayo and a sound mix of floor-spacers highlighted by Duncan Robinson, which should be enough to avoid its droughts.
Per Synergy, the Heat are 22nd in shooting percentage on open jumpers (41.4), which is on pace for their lowest finish in the last five seasons. They finished sixth in this category in 2023-24. Miami continues benefiting from Robinson drawing defensive attention as an off-ball threat, especially given his status as one of the best cutters in the NBA, but it will take more than that to improve the offense.
Since Feb. 1, the Heat are averaging only 93.8 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter. They’re the only team with a true shooting percentage below 50 percent in such situations since then. That’s eons away from ideal in today’s NBA. The main reason Miami has been blowing leads is because it has struggled to consistently piece together cohesive efforts.
“We’ve got to figure out how to sustain a full game,” Herro explained Monday. “It’s been our problem, really, all year.”
To aid that solution, the Heat have to begin with winning the possession battle in late-game scenarios. According to NBA.com, they’re grabbing only 47.4 percent of available rebounds in the fourth quarter, ranking ahead only the San Antonio Spurs this season. A team noted for its physicality can’t expect to shoot well enough to maintain big leads or mount consistent comebacks without having the ball.
Adebayo (42 percent on jumpers in wins, 37 percent in losses) and Ware (37.8, 33.3) have shown flashes as a floor-spacing frontcourt, but those flashes must become more extensive.
Basketball games are ultimately hours-long math equations. The Heat need better shooting and more possessions to tilt that math in their favor.
Improve late-game luck
Even when Miami’s matchups have been close, the team hasn’t been able to seal the deal. Herro leads the league in clutch-time shot attempts but is shooting under 30 percent on them. Adebayo’s 64 shots in those situations is next closest to Herro before Terry Rozier III (26 on 26.9 percent shooting) drops in at a distant third.
Even with Herro improving his luck in late-game scenarios, Miami needs more room for error to turn its tides. It’s less about scoring volume and more about controlling the rhythm of a game. When opponents are able to entrust the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell or other high-caliber players, the Heat need an apt counterpunch to avoid games slipping away.
They’ve won only 37.1 percent of their clutch-time games this season, which is on pace for their lowest such mark since that aforementioned 15-win game campaign (finished last with a figure of 22.7). Of course, it’s difficult to win in the NBA, and the Heat are being honest about how draining it has been to stack losses at inarguably the wrong point of the season, but they’re at least aware of their low point and aren’t looking beyond themselves to solve their issues. They understand nobody is coming to save them.
“That’s the thing we’ve been racking our time, our brains, everything to find solutions for that,” Spoelstra told reporters Monday. “We have not come up with solutions, and we’ve pretty much tried everything. I have not been able to come up with solutions for that. This has been one of the biggest challenges in the regular season that I’ve been a part of. We just have to stay the course.
“This is the NBA. We’ll have another game Wednesday night. We have to collectively get our mind right. All these losses don’t have to impact the next game — that’s the mental discipline. It’s human nature to stack up some of these memories and let it affect us for the next game, but I think this is a great challenge for every single one of us, to overcome and to have a breakthrough where it’s one separate game. It’s one separate game to put together enough winning basketball that leads to a win.”
(Photo: Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
