The shortest sentence in the Bible is “Jesus wept.” The shortest sentence to describe the president last week is “Trump blinked.”
“After weeks of bluster and escalation, President Trump blinked. Then he blinked again. And again,” David Sanger wrote in the New York Times.
First, Trump dialed back his threat to fire the Federal Reserve chairman, Jay Powell, whom he himself nominated in 2017. Powell has a little over a year to go on his appointed term.
What caused this turnabout was not the significant legal question over whether Trump has the authority to fire Powell. The switch was mandated by the markets, which had fallen almost 3 percent. The dollar went south and yields on long-term Treasurys soared in response to the ham-handed signal that Trump wanted the Fed Chair out. Powell is for Wall Street a bulwark against uncertainty. Markets do not like chaotic conditions.
Trump’s approval ratings are underwater. After his first 100 days, according to a Fox News poll, only 44 percent of Americans approve of his performance. More disapproved than approved on his handling of foreign policy, the economy and his signature issue, immigration.
No wonder, according to Bloomberg, “U.S. consumer sentiment fell to one of the lowest readings on record and long-term inflation expectations climbed to the highest since 1991 on worries over the domestic consequences from his tariffs.”
As Michael Froman, a former U.S. Trade Representative and now president of the Council on Foreign Relations, observes, “It all comes down to trade.”
The economic consequences of Trump’s tariff policies are profound. The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent, down from 3.3 percent in January. The short-term impact might be even greater, with the IMF reducing its U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to a threadbare 1.8 percent, down from 2.7 percent in January. The IMF also increased its U.S. inflation forecast to 3 percent, up from its prior 2 percent, raising the prospect of stagflation.
Trump caved on the 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods that he announced only two weeks ago, prompted in part by warnings from senior executives from large American retailers who journeyed to the White House to make the case that that consumers would see price surges and empty shelves for some imported goods within a few weeks. Another blink.
Elizabeth Economy, an aptly named authority on Chinese trade policy, said Trump has ignored three fundamentals about China: the depth of the Chinese retaliatory tool kit, the extent of China’s economic leverage over the U.S. and the ability of Xi Jinping to make America the scapegoat for China’s economic ills.
“This game of chicken has done nothing but enable Xi Jinping to boost his standing in and outside China, while the United States appears uninformed and unmoored,” she said.
Trump’s hard line on trade was dealt a cold shower. He had argued that punishing tariffs would force companies around the world to build factories in the U.S. But, even if it did, those factories would not come online for years or even decades. And forget about creating new American jobs — the factories of the future will be largely automated.
Most Americans do not trust autocratic power, and our history records that we have uniformly pushed back against it. We fought a revolution and framed a Constitution with checks and balances against overreach by a vindictive president. Already, the judiciary, including Republican-appointed federal judges, has handed Trump a string of defeats with decision after decision throttling executive orders dealing with immigration enforcement, voting suppression and diversity policies among universities, law firms and others against whom Trump bears some ancient animus.
Consider the 10-point manifesto in the Trump administration’s wretched letter to Harvard, signed by three public officials: “The University shall commission an external party … to audit the student body, faculty, staff, and leadership for viewpoint diversity, such that each department, field, or teaching unit must be individually viewpoint diverse.” Outside monitors traditionally have been reserved for alleged racketeering enterprises. Last year, a New York court appointed such a monitor for the Trump Organization.
If the university fails to comply, Trump warns it will lose billions of dollars in federal funding — much of which goes to cutting-edge medical, scientific and technological research.
Harvard has sued and ought certainly to win. Harvard argues that the government threatens to punish the school based on the content of its collective speech and thought, in violation of the First Amendment. It will be difficult for Trump to blunt Harvard’s trenchant claim about policing private speech — when that’s exactly what the letter states it intends to do.
While Harvard has held fast, Columbia has given up the ghost. The leonine men of Morningside bent the knee to keep their federal funding. “This is a shameful day in the history of Columbia,” one former Columbia professor stated, noting that the deal would “endanger academic freedom, faculty governance and the excellence of the American university system.” Indeed, it would.
Then, there are the elite law firms. Many have caved to Trump’s threats and agreed to render in tribute to the administration free services worth millions. But at least three stout-hearted firms have sued to block Trump from revoking the security clearances of their lawyers and barring them from access to the federal court houses and other government buildings. It goes without saying that if the litigating firms prevail, as they should, the complying firms will be free of their agreements, because they were coercive and illegal.
We have a great country, and it is what it is because courageous Americans, from Valley Forge to Bastogne, have stood tall defending our freedoms. Most voters say Trump is going too far in amassing his power. The time is ripe for courage. In the face of it, Trump is likely to blink once again.
Even he understands the power that is in the people.
James D. Zirin, author and legal analyst, is a former federal prosecutor in New York’s Southern District. He is also the host of the public television talk show and podcast Conversations with Jim Zirin.