Now that the cheat sheet is live, it’s officially fantasy hockey season. And what other way is there to celebrate other than kicking off “Fantasy everyone’s favorite column, “Fantasy trends and hidden gems”?
Anyone who prepares for their fantasy draft — and if you are reading this column, it’s a safe bet that you are — has a ton of content to choose from. The problem sometimes is that big gaps and disparities within player rankings and projections can get confusing and spark more questions than answers.
So let’s take a closer look at some of those differences.
In this exercise, I’ll break down sizable gaps in player rankings between our cheat sheet here at The Athletic and NHL.com’s top 200 players. For consistency, I set the cheat sheet to the same categories: goals, assists, plus/minus, power play points, shots on goal, hits, goalie wins, save percentage, goals-against average, and shutouts.
Disparities in player rankings don’t necessarily make one ranking right or wrong — each comes from a different perspective and approach, and the purpose here isn’t to tear apart another outlet’s content. Instead, we can use those gaps as a jumping-off point for a conversation, or at least explain why these players are ranked so differently.
Logan Stankoven, Dallas Stars
The Athletic: 288 | NHL.com: 112 | Difference: +176
First up, we’ll be looking at players who are “overrated” relative to our rankings. Stankoven leads the way with a plus-176 disparity, which is worth exploring more.
Stankoven made an impact when the Stars promoted him to the NHL level last year with some eye-catching scoring plays on the third line. The problem this year is that the third line will likely be missing its driver, Wyatt Johnston, who seems destined for a full-time bump up to the first line. Plus, there likely isn’t room for Stankoven on PP1, either. So while I think he will be productive and could be a steal in later rounds, especially for those in deeper leagues, his usage is something to keep in mind when drafting a team.
Evander Kane, Edmonton Oilers
The Athletic: 252 | NHL.com: 80 | Difference: +172
Problem No. 1 with Kane is that his injury is a wild card. Edmonton’s plan seems to include starting the season with him on LTIR and there isn’t much clarity on how long he will be sidelined for. If your league has multiple IR slots, maybe he’s worth stashing away until his eventual return. But even that honestly depends on where he will slot when he returns and he may not be worth a high pick.
Anyone in the Oilers’ top six carries some value because it likely means minutes with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. And for a league that counts hits, there is extra value there. Still, Kane wasn’t as effective last year, and will see his scoring potential tank if he ends up with a third-line role.
Blake Coleman, Calgary Flames
The Athletic: 248 | NHL.com: 81 | Difference: +167
Coleman’s value peaked last year from a fantasy context after the utility winger picked up the pace offensively. Our ranking just pours some cold water on that because the projection is based on more than just last year’s success. Plus, there are some red flags like an elevated shooting percentage without upticks in his offensive creation to back that up. To Coleman’s credit, he did run with the opportunity of more five-on-five and power play minutes. The Flames didn’t make a bunch of splashy forward adds this offseason, so he may maintain that usage.
Basically, I don’t see him as a Round 6-8 pick. But maybe he is worth drafting in later rounds, instead of just being a random waiver wire pickup like in the past.
Vladimir Tarasenko, Ottawa Senators
The Athletic: 243 | NHL.com: 139 | Difference: +104
Post-deadline Tarasenko was such a fit in Florida because he didn’t have to be the guy there. On the top line with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, he was able to play to his shooting strengths. On the third line, he was insulated with lower-key skills around him.
The Red Wings are just a very different team from Florida, especially if he slots outside of the top six. It’s a more similar environment to Ottawa, where Tarasenko was productive. It was just empty-calorie scoring considering dips in his shot volume, transition game, and overall defense. So it isn’t to say he won’t score with the Red Wings, I just have some pause about how much of a difference-maker he will be.
Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks
The Athletic: 221 | NHL.com: 142 | Difference: +79
Joshua became more of a known commodity league-wide last year after thriving on Vancouver’s third line. For leagues that count hits, he has value as a forward who can contribute both scoring and physicality. I’m just stuck on him shooting 21 percent last year, which is not a recipe for sustained success. That number is likely to drop, but I’m encouraged by him having a positive impact on Vancouver’s expected goal creation in each of the past three seasons.
Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins
The Athletic: 62 | NHL.com: 169 | Difference: -107
Fifty-six points is a massive drop off from Karlsson’s 101-point heights of 2022-23. But there is reason to believe he can still put up numbers in Pittsburgh. The fact that the Penguins were a better offensive team at five-on-five in Karlsson’s minutes is one encouraging sign. Another is the fact that Pittsburgh hired a new coach to run their power play after last year’s disaster. A lot of draft decisions around the Penguins will come down to whether you think the power play will turn around. While the personnel isn’t that different, and Jake Guentzel isn’t there to score, a new voice behind the tactics could be a game-changer here.
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators
The Athletic: 52 | NHL.com: 132 | Difference: -80
This ranking likely has less to do with Ullmark’s ability and more about the change of scenery. The Senators are not the Bruins and it will likely be a rude awakening for the goaltender who has been in one of the best situations over the past few years. Just look at what one season in Ottawa did to Joonas Korpisalo after a career year!
But Ullmark is not Korpisalo, and the Senators should take another step forward this year. Will his numbers be as sparkling behind Ottawa compared to Boston? Probably not. But don’t forget, Ullmark does have experience playing behind a bad defensive team from his Sabres tenure.
Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings
The Athletic: 76 | NHL.com: 155 | Difference: -79
Kuemper lost his net to Charlie Lindgren in Washington last season and ultimately was punted to Los Angeles this offseason. So I get why managers would be skeptical, especially in leagues that put a lot of emphasis on goaltending. But the Kings are one of the best defensive teams in the league and solidified play back in their own zone post-coaching change after some lapses in their rush game early in 2024. So if you’re looking for a solid starter/1B, he should be a fine option considering the support he’ll have with the Kings.
Timo Meier, New Jersey Devils
The Athletic: 30 | NHL.com: 105 | Difference: -75
Not only is there a major gap between our cheat sheet and NHL.com’s rankings, but there is a huge difference between our projections and his average draft position on Yahoo.
Meier was one of the biggest disappointments last season, and it’s not like his post-deadline stint in New Jersey back in 2023 instilled much confidence either. Injuries weighed down his game, and so did some coaching decisions. Meier didn’t play his natural side enough, was not always maximized with top talent, and was not a fixture on the top power play unit either. He started to pick up the pace after the Devils made a coaching change late in the season, but it wasn’t enough to turn his season around entirely. Will Meier ever be an elite producer in New Jersey? Maybe not. But he brings a lot to the table as a top-six performer around the Devils’ core centers. The potential is there to bounce back and there’s a good reason to think that will happen under Sheldon Keefe.
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes
The Athletic: 36 | NHL.com: 92 | Difference: -56
There are players with bigger disparities worth exploring, like Moritz Seider, Drew Doughty, Martin Necas, and even Thomas Harley (who you know we’re fans of here at “Fantasy Trends” if you read at all last season). But Svechnikov caught my eye after he fell short relative to what I think his heights can be last season. He falls into a similar category as Meier, as a power forward who wasn’t nearly as effective as promised. Trust me, I know — I drafted him early in two leagues knowing his strengths and ability to chip in across the board from a fantasy context.
Carolina’s forward group may not look as dangerous as it did when the season ended with deadline-add Guentzel departing as a free agent. But maybe a healthy Svechnikov can finally bring the oomph the Hurricanes forward group needs. If he can finally put it all together this season and truly hit his high ceiling, the Canes — and some of your fantasy teams — will be in luck, especially because he has the potential to be a multi-category threat.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, Dom Luszczyszyn, and NaturalStatTrick
(Top photo of Timo Meier: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
