Manchester City play Liverpool in Gameweek 13, which means the best two assets in the game — Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) and Erling Haaland (£15.1m) — face their toughest fixture of the season.
The takeaway? This is a great opportunity to look elsewhere for a captain.
The way the fixtures have fallen next gameweek means there are several legitimate captain options, which makes this a great week to take a risk and go with a differential if you need to make up ground in the overall rankings or your mini leagues.
So, these are my top five alternative captaincy picks for Gameweek 13…
I think the Chelsea star will be the most popular captain this week and with good reason.
Enzo Maresca’s side come up against Aston Villa, who aren’t in the best of form and seem to be feeling the effects of playing Champions League football. They have lost two and drawn as many in their last four league matches.
Over the season, Villa have conceded the fifth most goals (19), with an expected goals conceded (xGC) of 14.6 (also fifth). Up against that, Chelsea have been great in the final third, scoring 23 goals (third most) with an xG (expected goals) of 22.4 (fourth best).
Palmer has blanked in his last three games, but don’t let that put you off. He has seven goals and five assists so far and was very unlucky not to score against Leicester City last gameweek, while the other two matches were against Arsenal and Manchester United.
Cole Palmer was unlucky not to score against Leicester (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Over that period, his stats have still been good, with an xG of 1.27 and an xA (expected assists) of 0.46.
He will also be fit and fresh for the game, as will Chelsea, having been left out of Chelsea’s Conference League squad.
The Brentford forward has had a good start to the season, with eight goals and one assist.
He has also failed to score in the last three, but his fixture against Leicester City (H) this week is one of his kindest of the season, with the away side having just sacked manager Steve Cooper.
Brentford are a decent attacking team, having scored 22 goals (fourth most) with an xG of 19.3 (sixth best). They are going to be strong favourites to win this and score a few also.
Mbeumo is their talisman, nailed on to start and is on penalties. He is one of the few attackers in the league who won’t get rotated during the busy festive period.
Remember, Gameweek 14 is during midweek (Tuesday, December 3 deadline at 6pm GMT) and at this time of the season, players like Mbeumo are like gold dust.
Joao Pedro (£5.6m) — Brighton
Joao Pedro hasn’t wasted any time on his return from injury. He came off the bench against Manchester City in Gameweek 11 and in 25 minutes scored a goal and got an assist.
The Brazilian started and played 63 minutes against Bournemouth the following week, enough for him to register another goal and assist.
At his price, he is almost essential and he has the best fixture of the season as Brighton welcome bottom-of-the-table Southampton to the Amex.
Russell Martin’s side have conceded the second most goals (24) and, unsurprisingly, have the worst xGC (25.5) in the league, while Brighton have really impressed under their new 31-year-old manager, Fabian Hurzeler. They have scored 21 goals (fifth most) and sit fifth in the league, one point behind second-placed Manchester City.
Pedro is a first-team player and should get more minutes to build his match fitness, but he likely won’t get the full game.
Joao Pedro is back and scoring (Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
I don’t think there is any chance of him being benched in this game as Brighton’s next match in Gameweek 14 is next Thursday, which means a full six days of rest. The expected minutes does work against him in the captaincy discussion though.
On the other hand, he is on penalties, has goals and assists in his locker, and is the clear talisman for his team.
The England international is simply one of the most consistent players in the league.
When he’s fit, he is nailed on to start, is on set pieces and penalties, and has a high goal and assist threat. With so many avenues to points, he is the ideal FPL asset.
Arsenal did go through a bit of a blip recently, but it’s no coincidence that their upturn in form has coincided with the return of Martin Odegaard (£8.2m). They are a much more fluid attack with the Norwegian in the side.
Saka scored a goal and got an assist last gameweek as well as in the midweek Champions League fixture away at Sporting CP. He has four goals and eight assists in the league.
The north London club come up against West Ham, who haven’t been great this season. Despite their 2-0 win against Newcastle United last gameweek, they have conceded 19 goals (fifth most) and also have the fifth-worst defence according to their xGC (20.5).
They are leaky and Mikel Arteta’s side look back to their best. Saka is the one most likely to get the most points here, having scored or assisted in 57 per cent of Arsenal’s goals in the league — the third-highest goal involvement among all players.
The only downside to Saka is that some of the other options have a superior goal threat.
Matheus Cunha is in the form of his life right now. Since Gameweek 9, he has amassed the second-most FPL points (43) with four goals and three assists.
The Brazilian has seven goals and three assists over the season and he is very much nailed on to start.
Cunha celebrates scoring for Wolves (Richard Heathcote/Getty Images)
Despite Wolves’ slow start to the season, they have still managed to score 20 goals (sixth most) and Cunha is by far their best player.
He has the highest xG (3.1) and xA (2.3) amongst his team-mates and is not only scoring the goals, but is pulling the strings, too.
Wolves have quite an evenly matched game against Bournemouth in Gameweek 13, who have conceded 17 goals (sixth most) with an xGC of 15.3 (seventh).
However, with Gary O’Neil’s side being at home and in a bit of form with two wins in their last two, I can see a few goals in this one and Cunha is very likely to be involved in one way or another.
He can score, assist and is likely to be the first-choice penalty taker.
Saying all this, he has still overperformed over the last few weeks, so I wouldn’t expect this level of output to continue long-term.
Rankings
Here’s how I’d rank them, based on a few factors.
Captaincy Table
| Stats | xG per90 | xA per90 | Fixture difficulty | Rest days until GW14 | Expected minutes | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cole Palmer |
0.5 |
0.23 |
3 |
3 |
90 |
1st |
|
Bukayo Saka |
0.27 |
0.37 |
2 |
4 |
80+ |
2nd |
|
Bryan Mbeumo |
0.32 |
0.23 |
1 |
4 |
90 |
3rd |
|
Joao Pedro |
0.42 |
0.3 |
1 |
6 |
70+ |
4th |
|
Matheus Cunha |
0.29 |
0.21 |
2 |
4 |
85+ |
5th |
I think Palmer and Saka are the safe options. Mbeumo, Pedro and Cunha are riskier as they aren’t as consistent. However, they do carry a lot of upside if it pays off.
GO DEEPER
Fantasy Premier League: Ranking the best forwards in the game right now
Note: Stats from Opta.
(Top photo: Bryan Mbeumo; by Naomi Baker via Getty Images)
