When the Ravens and Bills met in Week 4, Baltimore made its intentions clear on its first offensive play from scrimmage. In a “crunch” run concept, Derrick Henry took a handoff from Lamar Jackson in the pistol. Henry wasn’t touched as he rumbled for an 87-yard touchdown.
The Ravens rushed for 271 yards against the Bills that evening and averaged 8.0 yards per carry in a 35-10 win. Buffalo was missing three key defensive starters who play significant roles in stopping the run in that game — all of them will be back on the field Sunday night when the two teams play again in a highly anticipated divisional-round matchup at Highmark Stadium.
Linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard, along with Taron Johnson, one of the NFL’s best nickel corners, are all back and will have Henry in their sights. Starting safety Taylor Rapp, who was knocked out of that late-September game after a collision with Henry, will also be playing. The Bills have shifted defensive personnel in other areas, too.
“There’s a reason they’re starters, and I’m sure they’re excited to have those guys back, but again, that doesn’t have anything to do with us,” said Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken. “Their structure is going to stay the same on how they’re going to play it, and we’re excited to get after it on Sunday night.”
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How the Bills defense has changed since Week 4, and some key matchups vs. Ravens
One thing hasn’t changed for the Bills. Their preference is still to be in their nickel personnel. No team had five or six defensive backs on the field more often than Buffalo this season. The Bills used their base personnel on nearly 25 percent of their defensive snaps in the first meeting to combat Baltimore’s run-heavy approach, but otherwise, they were in their base defense less frequently than any team in the league. The Ravens’ offensive versatility makes them a tough matchup for a lot of teams, but that’s particularly true for lighter defenses.
“They play that nickel pretty much against everything, except when they put the really big people out there, and those guys play so well together,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said this week. “They are experienced players, and Taron Johnson, he’s a DB but he plays like a linebacker in there. He gets in the box, and he plays the Sam or the Will nickelbacker, based on your formations, just like a linebacker would.”
It’s also no secret that the Ravens are extremely comfortable in their heavy packages. In the Week 4 game, Monken had multiple backs or tight ends on the field for three-fourths of the team’s offensive snaps. That number rose in Baltimore’s 28-14 wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. In that game, the Ravens even utilized a sixth offensive lineman on 16 different plays.
The expected absence of Baltimore’s top wide receiver Zay Flowers because of a knee injury provides even more incentive for the Ravens to lean harder on tight ends Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar and fullback Patrick Ricard.
While there’s obviously — and understandably — been a ton of attention on the quarterback matchup between top MVP candidates Jackson and Josh Allen, the adjustments the Bills make defensively against Baltimore’s rushing attack could be the game’s determining factor. The Ravens have averaged over 247.5 rushing yards over the past four games. Their best recipe to win in frigid Buffalo is to ride Henry in the run game and keep Allen and Buffalo’s high-powered offense off the field as much as possible.
“It’s going to be a heavyweight fight,” Henry said.
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Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are in each other’s way, whether they downplay it or not
During game weeks, we’ll examine some of the storylines, matchups and questions the Ravens face heading into the contest. This week’s first-and-10:
1. Ravens players and coaches seemed somewhat amused at the obsession this week on the predicted wintry conditions Sunday. Temperatures are expected to flirt with single digits, to go along with a negative wind chill. The Ravens’ outdoor fields were frozen most of the week, prompting them to practice inside on Wednesday and Thursday. They got outside Friday, but temperatures in the Baltimore area were in the high 30s.
The Ravens dismissed the idea that the cold puts them at a disadvantage. But it’s notable that, per TruMedia, the coldest game-time temperature Jackson has played in was 27 degrees on two different occasions. That doesn’t take into account the wind chill. Jackson doesn’t feel comfortable playing with gloves, but he’s generally thrown well in cold temperatures. Still, with the amount of read-option and mesh point stuff the Ravens do, ballhandling will be crucial in cold and potentially wet conditions.
2. The Ravens spent a ton of time again this week stressing ball security on offense and going after the ball on defense. Last week’s wild-card round yielded examples of how quickly a turnover can change the game’s momentum. No team had a better turnover ratio this season than the Bills, who were plus-24 in takeaways. That’s eight better than the second-best team. They also forced 32 turnovers, one off the league lead. The Ravens have gone three consecutive games without a turnover and have just two giveaways over their last seven games. That trend needs to continue on Sunday.
3. Jackson has yet to throw a touchdown pass in his two career road playoff games. In those contests, both after the 2020 regular season, a win in Tennessee and a loss to Buffalo, Jackson threw two interceptions, completed 65 percent of his pass attempts, had quarterback ratings below 75.0 and was sacked eight times. Jackson has been stellar on the road this season with 23 touchdowns and only one interception. Playing well on the road and getting a victory would even his career playoff record and check off another box.
Lamar Jackson threw 23 touchdown passes and just one interception on the road in the regular season. (Luke Hales/Getty Images)
4. Baltimore certainly wanted the Bills to spend at least some time this week preparing for the possibility of Flowers suiting up Sunday. In his first news conference of the week, Harbaugh said that Flowers didn’t need to practice to play. On Friday, the media was brought into the fieldhouse for the start of practice just as Flowers was exiting from a workout. After practice, Harbaugh said Flowers has a “chance” to play. The team then posted a video of him working out on its X account.
The injury report, where Flowers was listed as doubtful, ended any suspense. However, there shouldn’t have been any in the first place. The Ravens never seemed likely to put a guy on the field in a game of this magnitude and in these expected conditions who hasn’t practiced in two weeks.
5. Another common denominator to the success of these two teams is offensive line stability. The Bills have started the same five up front in 16 of their 18 games. Right tackle Spencer Brown missed one game and then the Bills sat several starters in Week 18. Since inserting rookie second-round pick Roger Rosengarten at right tackle in Week 4 and moving Patrick Mekari to left guard, the Ravens have started the same offensive line for 15 straight games. Sunday is a big spot for both groups.
6. The Ravens caused Allen problems in Week 4 with their simulated pressures. Allen was sacked 14 times all season and three of those, along with eight quarterback hits, were by the Ravens. To put that in perspective, Allen has been sacked three times over his past seven games combined. Allen also hasn’t played particularly well overall in five career meetings with Baltimore. He’s thrown three touchdown passes in those five games, taken 15 sacks, turned the ball over three times and completed 52 percent of his passes. Of course, Allen is playing at the highest level of his career. He’s also playing behind arguably the top offensive line in the AFC. Zach Orr’s defense needs to find a way to make him uncomfortable and get him on the ground when it has an opportunity.
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Ravens’ much-improved defense will be tested vs. Josh Allen and the Bills
7. Buffalo was essentially forced to abandon its running game in the Week 4 meeting after falling behind 21-3 by the midpoint of the second quarter. However, several Ravens this week talked up just how well Buffalo is running the football with James Cook and others. The Bills are averaging 161.3 yards per game on the ground over the past seven weeks. The Denver Broncos had no answer for it in the wild-card round. Baltimore had the top run defense in football this season, holding opponents to 80.1 rushing yards per game. Still, so few teams even tried to establish — and stick to — the run against them. The Bills probably will, especially in the expected conditions.
8. Looking for a Ravens X-factor Sunday? Defensive tackle Travis Jones qualifies. The Bills’ offensive line has been good, but it is generally not as strong inside as it is at the tackle spots. Jones had only one sack this season, but his ability to get penetration and disrupt plays is a key aspect of Baltimore’s physical defensive line. In the first meeting, Jones had four quarterback pressures and a thundering hit on Allen on the play in which Kyle Van Noy got a strip-sack. A high ankle sprain slowed Jones this season, but he’s been getting healthier and could be a major factor Sunday.
9. What’s made the Bills passing game so unique is how Allen has spread the ball around. Eight different Bills have 20 or more receptions. Buffalo presents several matchup problems, particularly with Khalil Shakir’s shiftiness in the slot and tight end Dalton Kincaid’s ability to create space. Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have surely watched plenty of film on the Ravens, and that probably means they’ll frequently target cornerback Brandon Stephens. Per The 33rd Team, quarterbacks have a 58.7 passer rating this season with two touchdowns and seven interceptions when targeting Baltimore corners Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. Against Stephens, they have a 107.4 passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus.
10. If this game comes down to a decisive kick, both Baltimore’s Justin Tucker and Buffalo’s Tyler Bass have experience in that area. Neither, though, had a good season by their standards. Tucker missed eight field goal attempts and two extra points. But he’s gone over a month without missing a kick. Bass missed five field goal attempts, all under 50 yards, and five extra points. Bass made all five of his kicks last week (three field goals and two extra points), but he was just 2-of-5 in last year’s playoffs.
Prediction
Bills 26, Ravens 20
There’s certainly a scenario where the Ravens come out, pound the ball with Henry against a smaller front, control the clock and put a chokehold on this game. We saw that movie 3 1/2 months ago. With how confidently and efficiently the Ravens have been playing offensively over the last month, it wouldn’t be a stunning development.
However, the Bills have the ability to do the same. Their offensive line is playing at such a high level and Allen is going to make plays. Being at home is a huge advantage this time of year, too. These types of games typically come down to an ill-timed turnover, and it’s the Bills who have excelled all year in getting the ball out and protecting it.
(Top photo of Derrick Henry: Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images)
