©  John Bazemore, Associated Press

VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS has vaulted past former President Trump to be the slight favorite to win the November election, though the race is close 10 weeks out, according to a brand new The Hill/Decision Desk HQ forecast. 

The forecast percentages have moved in favor of Democrats at every level since President Biden dropped out last month, underscoring the new infusion of money and energy Harris has brought to the campaign.

The model, released Monday night, has been updated to account for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspending his campaign, though his departure had only a small impact on the forecast.

By the numbers:

• Harris has a 55 percent chance of winning the White House, against 45 percent for Trump. When Biden dropped out, Trump had a 56 percent chance of winning.

• Harris leads in the average of national polls by 4 points. She trailed by 2 points when she first joined the race about a month ago.

• The “Blue Wall” states are leaning in Harris’s favor. Harris has a 67 percent chance of winning Michigan, a 58 percent chance of winning Wisconsin, and a 53 percent chance of winning in Pennsylvania. Winning in Pennsylvania, which has more Electoral College votes up for grabs than any other swing-state, might represent each campaign’s likeliest path to the White House.

• Harris has closed the gap in the Sun Belt states, but she still trails narrowly in Georgia and Arizona. Trump has a 65 percent chance of winning Georgia and a 51 percent chance of winning Arizona, while Harris is the slight favorite in Nevada.

The bottom line: The race for the White House remains in toss-up territory, despite Harris’s momentum. It could be headed for the wire.

“Neither campaign can go to sleep easy tonight thinking they’re ahead or they’ve got the advantage,” said Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ.

The Hill’s Jared Gans and Mychael Schnell have the full report here.

MEANWHILE, IN CONGRESS: The battle for majorities in the House and Senate have also tightened, the forecast shows, though Republicans are currently favored to win both.

• Republicans have a 67 percent chance of winning the Senate, with a projected 51-49 majority. Republicans had a 78 percent chance of winning the Senate when Biden was running. 

• A 2-seat majority would mean Republicans ousting Democrats running in West Virginia and Montana. But it would likely mean losing out on Ohio, a red state where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running strong.

• A 51-49 majority would also mean Republicans losing in every battleground where Democrats have an incumbent up for reelection: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota.

“We can empirically say the switch from Biden to Harris has helped the Democrats’ chances at the presidential level, maybe a little bit at the Senate level,” Tranter said. “The Republicans are still certainly heavily favored.”

• Republicans have a 56 percent chance of keeping their House majority with a projected 215 seats. There currently 220 Republicans in the House. The GOP had a 78 percent chance of maintaining its majority when Biden was at the top of the ticket.

“I fully expect the House, the chances of someone to win the House to be a rollercoaster the next couple of months as we get more House-specific polling, more fundraising,” Tranter said. “So many of these races are toss ups… we don’t know how it’s gonna turn out.”

Perspectives:

• Ben Dreyfuss: Democrats want one thing from Harris – victory.
• The Hill: Don’t blame just the media for thin coverage of Harris.
• The New Republic: Crime is down. Harris is up.
• The Wall Street Journal: Harris’s joyful war on entrepreneurs.
• Ross Barkan: Fresh vs. Tired. Why Trump is in trouble.

Read more: 

• GOP, Democrats prepare for 10-week sprint in Trump-Harris race.
• Populist economics blare forth from Trump, Harris campaigns.
• Republicans are nervous about Harris’s hot streak.
• Dems brace for new attacks on Harris.
• Who will the Teamsters endorse?
• Union members aren’t just voting on Labor this year.

Welcome to Evening Report! I’m Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what’s coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here.

• Special counsel challenges decision to toss Trump documents case.

• Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
• A deadly mosquito virus has Massachusetts on high alert. 

• French authorities arrested the CEO of messaging service Telegram, alleging users on his platform have engaged in crimes. The arrest has become a flashpoint in the debate over free speech. French President Emmanuel Macron said the arrest was not a “political decision.”

©  AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (I-Hawaii), who ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, endorsed former President Trump on Monday.

Gabbard has been a staple on conservative and right-leaning alternative media outlets, where she’s expressed her frustration with the Democratic Party on issues such as censorship and foreign policy.

Gabbard, who deployed to Iraq as a member of the National Guard, said Trump is best equipped to lead the military in remarks to the National Guard Association in Detroit:

“This administration has us facing multiple wars on multiple fronts in regions around the world, and closer to the brink of nuclear war than we ever have been before. This is one of the main reasons why I am committed to doing all that I can to send President Trump back to the White House, where he can once again serve us as our commander in chief.”

• During the 2020 Democratic primary, Gabbard’s most memorable moment came when she attacked Harris’s prosecutorial record on the debate stage. Gabbard has reportedly been advising the Trump campaign in its debate preparation.
• The endorsement comes days after Trump joined forces with another former Democratic and anti-establishment candidate, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who ended his presidential campaign and said he’d work with Trump to reform U.S. food production.

Gabbard joined Trump at the Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia earlier in the day to honor the third anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal in Afghanistan and the 13 U.S. service members who died at the Abbey Gate bombing. 

• Trump and his campaign have blamed the Biden-Harris administration for the lives lost at Abbey Gate during the chaotic withdrawal.

• The Trump campaign released a video on Monday featuring family members of the service members who died at Abbey Gate, some of whom were featured at the Republican National Convention. 

• Biden and Harris released statements honoring the fallen soldiers by name.

Read more:

• Trump sharpens Afghanistan attack against Biden, Harris on Kabul airport bombing anniversary.

Former President Trump and Vice President Harris will set out this week for the battleground states where they’re currently trailing in the polls.

Trump will embark on a tour of the “Blue Wall” states, where Harris currently has small leads.

In 2016, Trump became the first GOP presidential candidate in decades to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. President Biden won all three of them back in 2020.

• Trump addressed the National Guard Association in Detroit on Monday.

• Trump’s running mate Sen.
  JD Vance (R-Ohio) will make remarks in Big Rapids, Mich. on Tuesday.  He’ll campaign in De Pere, Wis., on Thursday.

• Trump will make remarks on the economy, inflation and manufacturing on Thursday at a steel factory in Potterville, Mich.

• Trump will hold a rally on Friday in Johnstown, Pa., before returning to Washington, D.C., to address Moms for Liberty.

• Trump launched the week in Virginia, where polls show a surprisingly close race. Two polls released this month find Harris with a 3 point lead in the traditionally blue state, where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has high approval ratings.

• Trump visited a Vietnamese restaurant in Falls Church, Va., with GOP Senate candidate Hung Cao, where he hit Biden for spending the week in Rehoboth Beach, Del., after returning from a vacation in California. “We are the closest to World War Three we’ve ever been, and we have a man who just took a vacation in California and he came back today. Where’s he going? Delaware – another vacation…that’s not the Vietnamese – they’re hard working people.”

Harris and running mate Tim Walz, meanwhile, will focus on Georgia, where polls show Trump has a small lead.

In 2020, Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate in nearly 30 years to win the Peach State. Democrats also won both Senate seats  that cycle.

• Harris and Walz will begin a two-day bus tour across Georgia that ends with a rally in Savannah on Thursday.

The Trump and Harris campaigns are battling over the rules of ABC’s Sept. 10 debate, raising new questions about whether it will go forward as planned.

Here’s a rundown of the latest:

• The Harris campaign wants the microphones to be on at all times, allowing the candidates to interrupt one another.

• The Trump campaign says they already negotiated the rules for this debate with the Biden campaign. They agreed that the microphones would be turned off for the person who was not asked a question, which was a Biden campaign demand.
• The Trump and Biden campaigns agreed to two debates – CNN’s June 27 debate and ABC’s Sept. 10 debate. Biden dropped out after the CNN debate. The Trump and Harris campaigns agreed to move ahead with the Sept. 10 debate with ABC.
• The Trump and Harris campaigns are now accusing the other side of trying to weasel out of the debate.

Feuds over the debate rules have become more common since Biden’s campaign cut the Commission on Presidential Debates out of the process earlier this year.

Trump indicated he might pull out of the debate if the Harris campaign gets its way.

“We agreed to the same rules, I don’t know, doesn’t matter to me, I’d rather have it probably  on, but the agreement was that it was the same as last time. In that case, it was muted. I didn’t like it the last time, but it worked out fine…we agreed to the same rules, and same specifications, and I think that’s what it probably should be.” –Trump on Monday at a Vietnamese restaurant in Falls Church, Va.

Read More:

• Trump, Harris clash over muting mics during scheduled ABC debate.
• Trump raises questions about participating in ABC debate.

©  Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Members of the bipartisan task force investigating the assassination attempt on former President Trump visited the rally grounds on Monday where the shooting took place.

The lawmakers did not reveal new details about the shooting, but held a press conference to say the parties are united in their search for answers and accountability.

The commission is being chaired by Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), who represents the Butler, Pa. district where the shooting happened.

“We started weeks ago…there’s not one person on this task force that’s identifying as a Republican or a Democrat, we’re identifying as members of Congress on a task force with the task of restoring the faith and trust and confidence the American people have to have in our system.”

Ranking member Jason Crow (D-Colo.) called the assassination attempt “unacceptable.”

“We’re standing here in a bipartisan way to send a message that we won’t tolerate it. We’re going to get answers…what we hope to do here today is to restore confidence with the American people that their elected officials and their candidates are secure.”

Meanwhile, in Washington, an independent House investigation led by Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) and Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) featured fiery testimony from Trump allies, such as former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino and Blackwater founder Erik Prince, a former Navy Seal.

Bongino called the shooting “an apocalyptic security failure.”

“A man was murdered in front of his family, three people were shot on live television including President Trump, who came within 2 millimeters of having his head explode on national television. There’s no sugar coating it, no time for B.S. Unfortunately…the story seems to have been vanquished to the phantom zone of media coverage…despite the fact that we have no answers.”

Prince said the “cancerous rot of unaccountability has metastasized throughout our entire body politic.”

“In the case of Butler, Pennsylvania, only the disinfectant of transparency and accountability will start to repair the cascading errors that led to the tragedy.”

More details here.

Read More: 

• CNN: Forgotten radios and missed warnings underscore communication failures before Trump rally shooting.

Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon exchanged heavy fire over the weekend but pulled back before the conflict devolved into full-scale war.

The latest military outburst has the region on edge, as White House officials push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

A deal has so far been elusive, but talks will continue this week. 

The latest:

• The U.S. helped Israel track the attack from Hezbollah, but the U.S. was not involved in the strike against Hezbollah, U.S. defense officials say.

• Hezbollah says its attack on Israel is complete for now, but future attacks are possible.

• The Israeli ambassador says the U.S. posture of support has helped to keep Iran at bay.
• Some Democrats were angry that no Palestinian-Americans were invited to speak at last week’s Democratic National Convention. Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) said her party “missed an opportunity.”

“The political gender gap of Sen Z reveals a new era of divergence,” by David McLennan and Whitney Ross Manzo for The Hill.

“The risks that could push our debt-riddled economy over the edge,” by Andy Langenkamp for The Hill.

15 days until the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump.

25 days until early in-person voting begins in Minnesota and South Dakota.

36 days until the vice presidential debate between Vance and Walz.

71 days until the 2024 general election.

147 days until Inauguration Day 2025.

Monday

• President Biden is in Rehoboth Beach, Del. this week.

Tuesday

• Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) delivers remarks in Big Rapids, Mich.

There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@thehill.com

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