- Ethereum is trading below its realized price, indicating that the average holder is in a net unrealized loss position.
- Silent accumulators just logged their largest inflows since 2018.
Whale capitulation catalyzed Ethereum’s [ETH] multi-year low near $1,400, as sharp drawdowns in long-term holder (LTH) balances and realized losses across large wallets became evident.
Since that capitulation event, ETH has staged a +25% recovery, trading around $1,760 at press time.
This rebound has been underpinned by opportunistic dip-buying from deep-pocketed entities and a reduction in macro and sector-specific FUD.
The critical question now is whether this recovery serves as a tactical breakeven window, or is ETH establishing a structural base for bullish continuation.
Capitulation pressure from cost basis undercut
Ethereum is currently trading 12% below its realized price of $2,002, signaling that the average holder holds a net unrealized loss position.
Source: Glassnode
Historically, this condition has reflected a market in correction or consolidation, where long-term confidence tests holders.
As illustrated in the chart, during the 2018 cycle, capitulation from average holders spiked, and insufficient bid-side absorption of the available ETH supply led to a significant drawdown until the market established a price floor.
Therefore, unless ETH reclaims and sustains levels above its realized price, the path of least resistance remains sideways to slightly bearish.
Any rally toward $2,000 may encounter profit-taking from underwater holders, which would reinforce that level as a key overhead resistance zone.
Bullish pattern identified in Ethereum’s on-chain activity
CryptoQuant data has revealed a quiet but remarkable pattern emerging deep within Ethereum’s on-chain activity.
A surge in inflows to a specific group of wallets — those that have never sold and follow strict accumulation-only behavior — is taking place.
Over the last 48 hours, more than 640,000 ETH has flowed into these addresses, marking the largest inflow since 2018.
Source: CryptoQuant
As AMBCrypto highlighted earlier, Ethereum’s price remains significantly undervalued. This activity suggests that these silent hands might be signaling something the market has yet to price in.
Still, the subsequent 15% rebound following this accumulation phase establishes a structurally bullish range. Hence, providing a supportive base for future upside.
Consequently, rather than repeating a 2018-style capitulation, Ethereum could be entering a 2022-2023 consolidation phase.
During this phase, ETH’s price action remained range-bound below $2,200 before eventually breaking through resistance levels in Q1 2024.