Elections in Moldova and Georgia are testing the ability of the United States and European allies to stand up to Russian interference in small countries where democratic aspirations are clashing with Moscow’s historical influence.
Backers of a referendum for Moldova to join the European Union eked out a victory on Oct. 20, in an election defined by unprecedented Russian meddling. A runoff election on Nov. 3 will pit the pro-European incumbent President Maia Sandu against the Russian-favored candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo.
“We have every expectation that the Russians are going to want to try to affect that runoff,” White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said. “We’re going to continue to work with the Moldovans in ways public and nonpublic about how they can improve their resiliency to that kind of influence.”
Georgians head to high-stakes parliamentary elections on Oct. 26, in which opposition parties are trying to oust the ruling Georgian Dream party, which has jeopardized the country’s path toward the EU by rolling back democratic freedoms with Russian-inspired legislation.
“In Moldova, you have a pro-Western government and Russian interference to destabilize it; in Georgia you have the opposite,” said Giorgi Kandelaki, former member of Parliament in Georgia.
“You have a government that is displaying very strong signs of being pro-Russian, to say the least, and you have Russian efforts to back it.”
For Western officials and pro-democracy activists, Russia’s focus on the small, former Soviet republics is part of its wider war against Ukraine and the democratic West.
Moldova shares a border with Ukraine and with NATO-ally Romania, while Georgia, with Russia to its north and strategic access to the Black Sea, is viewed as a lynchpin in maintaining security in the Caucasus.
“This is the issue of freedom, democracy and independence,” Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chair of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, said during a panel discussion on Georgia’s elections at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
“Although we’re all turned during this election cycle to what’s happening in the state of Georgia, the reality is … all of our freedoms are based upon each other’s freedoms, and those are going to be determined in part by what’s happening in [the country of] Georgia.”
Russia’s goals in both Moldova and Georgia are similar: to suppress support for pro-European and pro-democracy candidates, parties and legislation and to boost support for candidates who would prioritize relations with Moscow.
In Moldova’s Oct. 20 referendum to add joining the EU to its constitution, the “yes” vote passed by a margin of 13,596 votes — with a large majority of the support coming from the Moldovan diaspora in Europe.
“I couldn’t quantify how successful they [Russia] were in terms of the overall percentage of the ‘no’ vote,” Kirby said. “But we know they were pushing really, really hard to affect it. Bottom line is it didn’t pass. And what did succeed was a yes vote on EU integration.”
Russian interference in Moldova was characterized by vote-buying, illegal campaign financing and disinformation campaigns, to name a few, according to monitors and pro-democracy groups. The Moldovan government said that at least $39 million was spent between September and October to pay off voters. This is on top of conservative estimates of about $10 million spent per month since January to influence the elections.
“Without the buying of votes, the outcome today would have been different. We would have had a convincing victory in the presidential election and the referendum!” Sandu wrote on social media, according to Reuters.
Similar pro-Russia misinformation and fearmongering narratives are present in both countries — that closer ties with the EU and the U.S. will drag Moldova and Georgia into war with Russia, a real fear as Russian troops are positioned on territories of both countries and there’s a history of devastating conflict with Moscow.
And each country has a Russia-friendly oligarch leading the anti-democratic campaign. Ilan Shor is a fugitive and Moldovan politician who has directed the vote-buying campaign and other efforts to support his preferred candidates while in exile in Moscow.
In Georgia, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, a former prime minister, is the founder and honorary chair of Georgian Dream and is viewed as the main power behind the government.
“These two countries are sort of on this fault line between liberal democracy on the one side and authoritarian forces on the other — often corrupt, oligarchic authoritarian forces,” a senior administration official said on a call with The Hill, discussing U.S. efforts to help boost democratic institutions in each country.
In Georgia, there is a clear synchronicity to Kremlin and ruling party messaging campaigns. Misinformation and propaganda pushed by Russian-linked bot networks is often echoed and amplified by Georgian Dream officials.
Violence and intimidation are also a concern.
On Thursday, Georgian security officials raided the homes of staff of the American think tank the Atlantic Council, a move that was ostensibly related to concerns of tax evasion but that critics say was a clear act of intimidation. One of the staff members, Eto Buziashvili, one day earlier had published a report titled, “Russia is directly and indirectly meddling in Georgia’s upcoming election.”
“The only explanation I have is that Ivanishvili just wanted to send the signal to the U.S. that he’s in charge here, and he controls everything. He’s not afraid, and he can do whatever he wants,” said Zurab Japaridze, a former member of the Georgian Parliament and founder of the libertarian Girchi political party.
Sanctions are one tool the U.S. and Europe have used to combat Russian malign efforts and anti-democratic actions. The U.S. has issued other sanctions on Georgian officials and individuals engaged in violence, human rights abuses or anti-democratic efforts.
The U.S. sanctioned Shor, the fugitive Moldovan oligarch, in 2022 for working in concert with the Kremlin to undermine the country’s democracy, on top of other sanctions issued over the years against Moscow-backed entities and individuals in the country.
The U.S. also provides support for cybersecurity defense, grants for civil society organizations, independent media and help boosting election integrity efforts.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has provided to Moldova nearly $1 billion in assistance for a range of efforts: creating jobs, diversifying the economy, government reforms, strengthening energy security, increasing resilience against malign influence and deepening the country’s European integration.
“We’re building up independent democratic institutions and processes independent of any party or candidate,” the senior administration official said.
There are other punitive actions. In late July, the U.S. suspended $95 million in assistance for the Georgian government in response to the passage of a “foreign agents” law, Russian-inspired legislation criticized as suppressing civil society groups that are critical of, or viewed as threatening to, Georgian Dream.
And President Biden iced out Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and declined all meetings with Georgian government officials on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, a signal of opposition to the government’s actions.
U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have expressed continued support for democratic norms in both Moldova and Georgia, a sign that no matter a change in the U.S. executive branch, Congress will likely remain united on countering Russian interference there.
But are all these efforts enough?
The senior administration official said that the White House will evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. election integrity efforts in these countries following the conclusion of their elections, as well as looking at “vectors of malign influence and how we can do better at trying to combat those.”
“I expect that there will be sort of a transition memo that will be passed to the next administration,” the official said.
Turner, when asked what more the U.S. can do to aid democracies against Russian interference, said to “take the win” on Moldova’s referendum, adding “the West needs to work with Moldova and Georgia on, win the future.”
